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ballamar
17 October 2019 08:59:58
ECM at the end of the run comes true I am going to start selling plans on Ark building!
tallyho_83
17 October 2019 10:20:35
I see the the GFS models have backed off from that Northerly cold snap during the final week of month?!
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


roadrunnerajn
17 October 2019 11:40:26

ECM at the end of the run comes true I am going to start selling plans on Ark building!

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


I’m looking at selling my boat..... maybe I’ll wait a week or so....


Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
Russwirral
17 October 2019 13:24:49
Not the first time the GFS has finiahed its run with major northerly blocking and northern europe into the freezer. Unusual for this early in the season.

Looks like we go from LP dictating things to HP... with that comes the risk of very low and very high temps... but mostly...drier weather 🙂
Saint Snow
17 October 2019 14:39:30

I see the the GFS models have backed off from that Northerly cold snap during the final week of month?!

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


 


 


FFS 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
17 October 2019 18:08:32

.


The UKMO, GFS 12z runs today keep the UK under High Pressure for much of Next Week, very quiet week of Autumn weather expected.


The Norwegian Sea NE Atlantic to our North and NE, NNE Europe and Iceland plus Greenland and also NW Atlantic get some cold winter weather, but by Thursday and Friday the NW and North Atlantic see further West to East Moving Jetstream energy- with Low Pressure systems Undercutting the Greenland high, then undercut the SW side of the Cold Pool to our North and NE Lol.


.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
17 October 2019 18:20:20

.


The Blowtorch High is being shown by the ECMWF 12z, giving the UK nothing much- the NW Atlantic at 24-24-72-96 hrs is being shown to get only Scotland and NE Ireland some of the tip of the cold arctic air, but for much of the UK on Sunday at T96 hmm, cool and showery regime is being shown.


This model is agreed with the GFS and UKMO, but the ICON brings the Cold Arctic Northerly in by Thursday and Friday the 24th and 25th October et all.


So- on Wednesday- with 12z ECMWF run being awaited, we see fine settled high pressure over the UK, NE Europe get cold arctic air this coming Weekend, with a few days break then another NE Europe cold plunge from Wednesday onwards aka the 23rd Oct. 2019.


Low Pressure over the NW Atlantic next week as being shown at T96, for this Sunday 12z runs, 20th Oct., a large WAA wedge of air associated with a Deep NW Atlantic Low.  This is shown to cross NE Atlantic and push from the NW and North Atlantic to Southwest and SE of North and NE Europe (away from the UK).


The ECMWF 12z is not showing a mild SW flow in NW Atlantic but actually a cold arctic Plunge for North Atlantic- with massive blocking high- Greenland high, but less cold for West and SW side of Greenland next week. Iceland, Eastern Greenland and Svalbard plus Norwegian Sea and NE Europe seeing very cold spell indeed- is forecasted.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
18 October 2019 05:53:36

Similar sort of pattern to yesterday, but with GFS being more bullish about HP over the UK, stronger and continuing longer, though there's a close brush with a depression in the NW mid/late next week. ECM more hesitant about setting up an HP cell, bit indications are there. Most GEFS runs have temps at or slightly above average, and rainfall low, especially in the op and control runs.


One cautionary note - Hagibis has sent the jet stream into wild meanderings, and according to Weather for thee Week Ahead on BBC last night, this is badly handled by computer models. They were not really offering any forecast for as much as a week ahead. https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20191018/00/159/hgt300.png 


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
ballamar
18 October 2019 21:13:31
Trend for HP to be in control in 9-10 days with a nice blast of cold to the NE.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_1.png 
Would be great in a month let’s hope it’s a repeating pattern
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
19 October 2019 06:27:26

Trend for HP to be in control in 9-10 days with a nice blast of cold to the NE.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_1.png
Would be great in a month let’s hope it’s a repeating pattern

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Ten days is a long time in weather! Latest GFS charts show breakdown then with LP from SW.


High pressure generally present for a week or so after current LP fills and moves away in the next few days. GFS shows it as the fragile* tail ends of ridges, first from SW then from NW.  ECM more positive on a definite HP centre, FAX and GEFS show LP grazing the NW with rain for Scotland even in the middle of next week. S Britain notably dry until beginning of Nov


GEFS temps about average except that the op run is a notable cold outlier, as much as 5C below normal for several days


 


* Fragile in the sense that there are quite deep LPs on either side which could easily expand or move so as to displace the ridge


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Joe Bloggs
19 October 2019 09:27:46

I see Iceland is about to get its first proper winter blast with bitter northerly winds and ice days with heavy snow showers in the north of the island. 


Quite a strong blocking theme over Greenland and the mid Atlantic which could give us some seasonal weather - however the Arctic flow looks likely to miss us with high pressure nudging in from the SE. 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

AJ*
  • AJ*
  • Advanced Member
19 October 2019 09:52:16


I see Iceland is about to get its first proper winter blast with bitter northerly winds and ice days with heavy snow showers in the north of the island. 


Quite a strong blocking theme over Greenland and the mid Atlantic which could give us some seasonal weather - however the Arctic flow looks likely to miss us with high pressure nudging in from the SE. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Yes, when looking at the FAX charts for next Tuesday and Wednesday I was struck by the big HP area extending from north of Greenland to south of Newfoundland.  I don't remember seeing such a large HP in that location very often.


Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl
Joe Bloggs
19 October 2019 16:50:05

Definitely the chance of something a bit chillier towards next weekend. 


Really interesting pressure pattern to our NW. 


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_192_1.png



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

The Beast from the East
19 October 2019 17:27:59


Definitely the chance of something a bit chillier towards next weekend. 


Really interesting pressure pattern to our NW. 


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_192_1.png


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


The start of Boris's "Winter of Discontent"


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
tierradelfuego
19 October 2019 20:07:35
Interesting GEFS tonight down here for Reading with the OP 850hPa and 2m pretty much bang on the mean at ~5c above LTA throughout. The MSLP though is a totally different story with the OP 10-20mB below the mean, and opposing the Control till the end of the run. Pretty dry throughout.
Bucklebury
West Berkshire Downs AONB
135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS
Rainfall collector separated at ground level
Anemometer separated above roof level
WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Weather)
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
20 October 2019 06:06:44

Forget the confident predictions of HP establishing in the coming week. Instead there's a mixed bag of transient Hp and/or weak ridges with occasional incursions of LP. Both ECM and GFS do roughly agree from the 27th with major depressions in the Atlantic andover N Russia, and HP then developing over the UK, strongly according to ECM, less so in GFS. That is however contradicted by http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 showing a lot of pptn all across the UK at that time.


And GEFS? For England, dry this coming week, a bit more rain next, temps above average to start with then dropping back. Scotland and NI much more of a scramble with no clear pattern.


Low confidence in all outcomes IMO - keep watching


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Russwirral
20 October 2019 19:32:04
Friday looks very interesting... could see snow to quite low levels where the rain is heavy enough. A big pool of cold air to our northwest being tapped into
briggsy6
20 October 2019 20:24:45

A chance of my favourite Autumn weather on Tuesday,according to BBC Weather for the Week Ahead: a misty foggy morning. I love it when the first rays of weak morning sun highlight the spiders webs in the holly hedge next to the house. Sorry if I've said all this before.


Location: Uxbridge
Russwirral
20 October 2019 22:41:53
Friday looking more interesting for disruptive snowfall for some areas of northern england. The risk could extend more south as the week goes on

One to watch
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
21 October 2019 06:36:28

Much as yesterday but with a suggestion that the breakdown of next week's HP will be from the west rather than the east. Winter getting established over NE europe by then http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4


I think snow lying on Friday is optimistic except on the tops in Scotland. Great Dun Fell on top of the Pannines is forecast at 3C as the rain arrives, soon warming to 7C as the rain really sets in. So might see some wet snow/sleet for a short while there.


 


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
ballamar
21 October 2019 06:53:14
ECM looks like it could be a chilly Halloween. GFS potential split vortex with maybe an early cold shot if the high can build in the right spot. Obviously nothing too cold but more interesting November coming up than mild 13/14 degree days with double figures at night
Russwirral
21 October 2019 11:24:11

Cold charts at this time of year should be taken with a pinch of salt... theyre the models coming to terms with cooler air etc etc


 


Something tells me - this time its different... this is not the first time ive seen such a setup in the FI over the past few days.  Its becoming a solid signal for something very wintry towards the end of the month  


 


Netweather GFS Image


tallyho_83
21 October 2019 13:08:29


Cold charts at this time of year should be taken with a pinch of salt... theyre the models coming to terms with cooler air etc etc


 


Something tells me - this time its different... this is not the first time ive seen such a setup in the FI over the past few days.  Its becoming a solid signal for something very wintry towards the end of the month  


 


Netweather GFS Image


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


 


Sat 27th Oct Last year it tried to sleet before the rain diminished and went back to light drizzle.




 


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
21 October 2019 13:10:58

Again a northerly at 240 says the ECM:


Quite a cold and snowy/wintry scene for many parts of Scandinavia!- However, we are just on the edge of it if this materialises!?



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


picturesareme
21 October 2019 13:41:53


Much as yesterday but with a suggestion that the breakdown of next week's HP will be from the west rather than the east. Winter getting established over NE europe by then http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4


I think snow lying on Friday is optimistic except on the tops in Scotland. Great Dun Fell on top of the Pannines is forecast at 3C as the rain arrives, soon warming to 7C as the rain really sets in. So might see some wet snow/sleet for a short while there.


 


Originally Posted by: DEW 


Some sleet for the Cheviots Friday night Saturday - Northumberland.

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