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Offline TimS  
#61 Posted : 20 July 2019 20:07:39(UTC)
TimS

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Location: Brockley

Bit of cloud seeding over the central Atlantic needed to dull down that pump low a bit.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline Polar Low  
#62 Posted : 20 July 2019 20:09:43(UTC)
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That has 35C building 16.00 I cant quite spot it, I cant seem to get 1 hour steps at that time scale 

https://meteologix.com/uk/model-charts/euro/d9409acde1dee6f24e1e387817db7dfa/temperature/20190725-1500z.html

Offline Polar Low  
#63 Posted : 20 July 2019 20:19:39(UTC)
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  MWB with about 75% of members either as hot or hotter than the op - also maybe half with the heat backed a bit further west. Certainly 35C or slightly higher starting to look a good call for that day. 

My assessment is that 38C, 39C or even 40C still cannot be ruled out, and now just at D4-D6. 

Edited by user 20 July 2019 20:21:12(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline Polar Low  
#64 Posted : 20 July 2019 20:27:38(UTC)
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Just 120 hours away

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

Offline Polar Low  
#65 Posted : 20 July 2019 20:35:08(UTC)
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you dont get many ecm means looking like that at 72

 

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Offline Polar Low  
#66 Posted : 20 July 2019 20:40:45(UTC)
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Darrens specials has 86F by 1300 Tuesday

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/essentials

Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#67 Posted : 20 July 2019 20:43:16(UTC)
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Agree with Polar Low , 37c isn't out the question ECM especially producing very hot charts 72/120h mark.  You can normally add a couple of degrees to their temp max charts. This one seems to be going under the radar for a lot of people after the hype of the late June heatwave that was really just 1 day.

Ecm also now has consistently very warm temps from 144h to 240h for the SE and EA at least mid to high 20s after the heatwave and mostly settled judging by the mean.

Edited by user 20 July 2019 20:49:53(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline Polar Low  
#68 Posted : 20 July 2019 20:45:56(UTC)
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Thanks your the first one since the days of YD

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman Go to Quoted Post

Agree with Polar Low , 37c isn't out the question ECM especially producing very hot charts 72/120h mark.  You can normally add a couple of degrees to their temp max charts. This one seems to be going under the radar for a lot of people after the hype of the late June heatwave that was really just 1 day.

Ecm also now has consistently very warm temps from 144h to 240h for the SE and EA at least mid to high after the heatwave and mostly settled judging by the mean.

Offline bledur  
#69 Posted : 20 July 2019 21:38:25(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Polar Low Go to Quoted Post

Just 120 hours away

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

Same day , different take 

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Offline TimS  
#70 Posted : 20 July 2019 22:04:32(UTC)
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GFS 18z so far (to Thurs) subtly different with orientation of the swooping low. More SW-NE rather than SE-NW, so lower uppers but possibly longer until breakdown.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline DEW  
#71 Posted : 20 July 2019 22:31:25(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: TimS Go to Quoted Post
GFS 18z so far (to Thurs) subtly different with orientation of the swooping low. More SW-NE rather than SE-NW, so lower uppers but possibly longer until breakdown.

Supported by BBC WftWA now saying breakdown on Friday - and still hedging bets about -just possibly - a thundery low in Biscay as scenario 2

EDIT - added Sunday am - the above confirmed by ensembles, ECM and GFS charts this morning, though ECM keeps it pleasantly warm in the south. Mildly surprising that there's no indication of more than scattered storms associated with the breakdown.

Further ahead, the agreement of the ensembles for the foreseeable for a spell of close-to-average temps and pptn looks too good to be true - there ought to be some outliers, one way or another! Particularly since both GFS  and ECM main charts each bring in a depression across the UK, ECM sooner and GFS later. I don't regard the outputs as predictable at the moment. 

Edited by user 21 July 2019 06:43:08(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

It was most foule weather ... and so we went into an alehouse - Samuel Pepys
Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#72 Posted : 21 July 2019 07:18:20(UTC)
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ECM keeps the heat going to Friday this morning 29c forecast for Essex , it also has 36c on thursday so close to record territory. 

Offline TimS  
#73 Posted : 21 July 2019 07:23:09(UTC)
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GEM has some interesting ensembles this morning. Rather different to the flat line and consensus implies by GEFS.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Online Gusty  
#74 Posted : 21 July 2019 07:32:21(UTC)
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ECM continues to send up near record breaking temperatures on Thursday with 37c fairly widespread across the far SE.

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Steve - Folkestone, Kent

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Offline superteacher  
#75 Posted : 21 July 2019 07:50:18(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gusty Go to Quoted Post

ECM continues to send up near record breaking temperatures on Thursday with 37c fairly widespread across the far SE.

And those are raw values, so possibly a degree or two could go on top.

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Offline Polar Low  
#76 Posted : 21 July 2019 07:56:09(UTC)
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Even when you look at ecm next Monday 29th you cant rule out another heat rush south having a fab summer imo

 

 

 

 

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman Go to Quoted Post

ECM keeps the heat going to Friday this morning 29c forecast for Essex , it also has 36c on thursday so close to record territory. 

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Offline Polar Low  
#77 Posted : 21 July 2019 07:57:26(UTC)
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Where is that link from Steve?

Originally Posted by: Gusty Go to Quoted Post

ECM continues to send up near record breaking temperatures on Thursday with 37c fairly widespread across the far SE.

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Online Gusty  
#78 Posted : 21 July 2019 08:07:17(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Polar Low Go to Quoted Post

Where is that link from Steve?

 

Its from metdesk.com Tim. 

Its a password protected site that I use for my role in winter maintenance.

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

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Offline Polar Low  
#79 Posted : 21 July 2019 08:08:00(UTC)
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Offline Polar Low  
#80 Posted : 21 July 2019 08:11:19(UTC)
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Thanks Steve put me out of misery looked everywhere for it.

 

Originally Posted by: Gusty Go to Quoted Post

 

Its from metdesk.com Tim. 

Its a password protected site that I use for my role in winter maintenance.

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