The Weather Outlook

Remove ads from site

LeedsLad123
27 September 2011 03:24:09

Well I've been hoping that northern blocking would temporarily make a comeback for the second half of October and a fair part of November, but reading GPs post on Netweather has made me take a step back and reset my expecations to 'nothing in particular' for now - they were creeping towards a very cold period just prior to winter, which is a foolish thing to allow to happen because it only sets me up for potential dissapointment!

 

His post provides yet more support for a dry, cool and rather uninteresting first half of the winter, but leaves the door open for potential excitement later. For example, the possibilty of blocking highs to our NE in February has gained a little ground of late, but that means little at this point in time.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

It's too early to have any proper idea at the moment, in my opinion. I seem to recall that during the first few days of November last year, a few people were expressing concern at the synoptic set-up we had then and how in their view it didn't bode for a great start to the winter in terms of cold. Little did any of us have any idea at that time of what was coming our way 3-4 weeks later...

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Linton on Ouse in North Yorkshire recorded its highest November temperature in 2010 at 17C.. 2 weeks later.. its November record-low was smashed at -14C.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Nordic Snowman
27 September 2011 08:47:35

We all know the CFS maps change very often but nonetheless, the trend of late has switched from cold to average:-

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mMon.gif

Bjorli, Norway

Website 

Solar Cycles
27 September 2011 09:15:35

We all know the CFS maps change very often but nonetheless, the trend of late has switched from cold to average:-

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mMon.gif

Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 

They were showing average a month or so ago, CFS charts are of only any use at picking trends at shorter timescales, most of the time. 

JOHN NI
27 September 2011 09:21:08

We all know the CFS maps change very often but nonetheless, the trend of late has switched from cold to average:-

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mMon.gif

Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 

Yes around average is the message Im getting from those charts at the moment - though still a weak signal for a slightly cooler than average start and a milder than average finish. On balance Im getting a slight feeling that the second half mildness might outweigh any cooler conditions at the start. and of course - the big caveat is that it doesnt tell us anything about the various weather types that can provide some dramatic variations on a week to week basis during the season.

John.

The orange County of Armagh.

beanoir
27 September 2011 12:41:50

This is a very interesting read, those predicitions of a severe winter Could be premature.

Here

And

Here

It's going to be 50/50 i think as to what winter 2011/2012 brings.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Interesting links, GP certainly knows his stuff. Heights are certainly lower to the north, and have been for a short while,  will this last through the winter months? Time will tell.

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Yes GP does know his stuff, could i just ask if that pattern you said above lasted what it would mean for our winter???

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Lower heights to our north tends to mean that we'd get mild weather. The reason we've had three cold winters is that we've had extensive periods of northern blocking, with high pressure pushing south out of the vicinity of the north pole, and towards Iceland and Greenland.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.png

If you look at this analysis chart, there is very little high pressure to our north, and this pattern has been with us for a short while now, which does give some credit to the thoughts of GP.

However, things can change very quickly.. and I'll be keeping an eye on the NWP. I'd like to see some evidence of further northern blocking within a month or so to suggest that the patterns haven't switched in the manner at which GP suggests.

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Sounds promising then for a mild winter, but things can change any time.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

 

Lets hope they do. 

Langford, Bedfordshire
LeedsLad123
27 September 2011 12:43:39

This is a very interesting read, those predicitions of a severe winter Could be premature.

Here

And

Here

It's going to be 50/50 i think as to what winter 2011/2012 brings.

Originally Posted by: beanoir 

Interesting links, GP certainly knows his stuff. Heights are certainly lower to the north, and have been for a short while,  will this last through the winter months? Time will tell.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Yes GP does know his stuff, could i just ask if that pattern you said above lasted what it would mean for our winter???

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Lower heights to our north tends to mean that we'd get mild weather. The reason we've had three cold winters is that we've had extensive periods of northern blocking, with high pressure pushing south out of the vicinity of the north pole, and towards Iceland and Greenland.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.png

If you look at this analysis chart, there is very little high pressure to our north, and this pattern has been with us for a short while now, which does give some credit to the thoughts of GP.

However, things can change very quickly.. and I'll be keeping an eye on the NWP. I'd like to see some evidence of further northern blocking within a month or so to suggest that the patterns haven't switched in the manner at which GP suggests.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Sounds promising then for a mild winter, but things can change any time.

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

 

Lets hope they do. 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

God help us all if it doesn't.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
moomin75
27 September 2011 13:47:38

One of the many resources I used last year in keeping an eye on the colder weather was the GFS ensemble...

OK - not for this country - and not for the FI section of it.

The 850s for this particular ensemble

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Nuuk_ens.png

for Greenland were CONSISTENTLY well above average throughout the early part of last winter. This suggested high heights around that area, with much Warm Air Advection in the mix.

At present, (I know it's very early autumn), they are running above average, but not excessively so.

I noticed a distinct correlation between high 850s on the Nuuk ensembles and cold weather over the British Isles last winter.

It was interesting to note that once the cold spell subsided in early January, 850s around Nuuk were back down to average (or even a little below).

Worth keeping an eye on this over the coming months as it's a good indicator for WAA up the western side of Greenland - one of the many building blocks IMO.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

SnowyHythe(Kent)
28 September 2011 01:08:27

This is a very interesting read, those predicitions of a severe winter Could be premature.

Here

And

Here

It's going to be 50/50 i think as to what winter 2011/2012 brings.

 

Originally Posted by: blizzard of 78 

Interesting links, GP certainly knows his stuff. Heights are certainly lower to the north, and have been for a short while,  will this last through the winter months? Time will tell.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Yes GP does know his stuff, could i just ask if that pattern you said above lasted what it would mean for our winter???

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

 

I must admit that I follow GP and his posts with great interest and he certainly knows his stuff, however the Netweather seasonal summer forecast was suggesting a possible 1976 scenario or something close to it. So I wouldn't at this stage be worrying too much about the coming winter. However once winter is on our doorstep GP.s postings will no doubt prove very useful for the medium range outlooks.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Yes, GP does know his stuff but even his short term musings were off the mark when forecasting a rapid rise in temps for early July.

nouska
28 September 2011 08:19:01
I think the past summer season is a bad example to judge people on. There are many teleconnections 'experts' on weather boards and they all seem to have floundered this summer. The MJO and ENSO signals/state have not produced the synoptic patterns that past cycles would indicate. I can only think that the level of solar activity, last seen over a hundred years ago, is producing yet another dimension to the accepted norms.
sriram
28 September 2011 17:42:24

this has a feel of 1985 about it - a poor summer followed by a warm September and early October - just like now - that year we had a mild and wet December, a fair bit of snow in Jan 1986 and a severe cold Feb 1986 - with a classic blocking Scandy High - not necessarily snow wise in some areas but no Atlantic influence that month whatsoever

time will tell - pattern matching is risky - but my gut feeling is that we will see a severe wintery spell at some point this winter

Sriram

Sedgley, West Midlands ( just south of Wolverhampton )

162m ASL

schmee
28 September 2011 18:36:17

Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
Gavin D
28 September 2011 20:11:31

James Madden's predicition of Britain faces an early big freeze in October, could by wrong if PWS are right.

http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/PWS-Comment.php

doctormog
28 September 2011 20:13:55
Does James Madden work for PWS as well as Exacta weather?
Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Gavin D
28 September 2011 20:21:29

Does James Madden work for PWS as well as Exacta weather?

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

No idea.

doctormog
28 September 2011 20:30:16

Does James Madden work for PWS as well as Exacta weather?

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

No idea.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I'm just curious what what James Madden says has got to do with PWS that's all. If they represent two different organisations then it can hardly be described as a huge step back. As far as I can see Madden is still going for the cold winter he always was and I have no idea what PWS had been predicting.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

blizzard of 78
28 September 2011 20:34:36

Well, talk about Positive Weather Solutions taking a huge step back, only last week they were quoted in national news papers with James Madden in saying October will see the start of winter, and now Jonathan Powell say's this,

There would still appear to be little indication of a significant and sustained Arctic blast during October as headlined in some of the national press over the last few weeks.

This guy is for ever-changing his story's.

http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/PWS-Comment.php

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

 

Hi Gavin. You are talking about two completely different forecasters. James Madden has not budged and inch in his forecast.

PWS is a completely different company. So you can't refer to both of them as this guy.

Gavin D
28 September 2011 20:55:00

If what Jonathan Powell has said tonight turns out to be correct then it's James Madden who would be wrong and not Jonathan Powell my apolgies, i have found the article from last week and Jonathan was quoted as saying

The UK was set for an “exceptionally dry” two months which, if coupled with high pressure, could compound a cold spell.

So James Madden predicition could be wrong.

Gavin P
28 September 2011 21:30:47

What is it with all these weather forecasters/companies bitching about each other at the moment?

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

the converted
28 September 2011 21:31:09

If what Jonathan Powell has said tonight turns out to be correct then it's James Madden who would be wrong and not Jonathan Powell my apolgies, i have found the article from last week and Jonathan was quoted as saying

The UK was set for an “exceptionally dry” two months which, if coupled with high pressure, could compound a cold spell.

So James Madden predicition could be wrong.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

and so could Positive Weather Solutions

roger63
  • roger63
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
29 September 2011 08:05:05

We all know the CFS maps change very often but nonetheless, the trend of late has switched from cold to average:-

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mMon.gif

Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

And that trend has intensified with latest CFS seasonal showing above average instead of below average only a week ago.I assume this is linked to the more inrense La Nina  assumption.

Charmhills
29 September 2011 09:10:48

We all know the CFS maps change very often but nonetheless, the trend of late has switched from cold to average:-

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mMon.gif

Originally Posted by: roger63 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

And that trend has intensified with latest CFS seasonal showing above average instead of below average only a week ago.I assume this is linked to the more inrense La Nina  assumption.

Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 

If you believed that we're not gona have a winter at all this year/next.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

the converted
29 September 2011 09:55:56

Telecommunication signals are still uncertain as things stand. I am still going for a colder than average winter until told otherwise. Those CFS maps chop and change. i still think we will see snow during the second half of November.

Gavin P
29 September 2011 10:57:36

I'm keeping a close eye on the CFS pressure anomaly charts;

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz200Mon.gif

December is trending increasingly anticylonic across north-west Europe. It wouldn't take much of an adjustment for that anomaly to become a very cold signal for us, with the high pressure centered over Scandinvia.

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

festivalking
29 September 2011 11:52:15

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-15104589

Well if Plymouth City Council are preparing I for one are going for a mild winter certainly in the SW.

Incidentally last december was the first time we saw continued snow on the ground for a week since the mid 80's. Somehow I doubt this will be expierenced again anytime soon.

Dousland, Dartmoor 206 m/asl

Its only going to snow when Gibby says so.

LeedsLad123
29 September 2011 13:14:56

When Plymouth start ordering 10,000 snowplow's, I'll be concerned

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.

Remove ads from site