Originally Posted by: beng

"I'd go for fairly dry (in my experience weak la nina winters tend to be on the dry side),"

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Which winters were those then?

54/55, 62/63, 64/65, 67/68, 74/75, 84/85, 95/96, 00/01, 08/09

Again its worth noting that out of all those winters, the only one that didn't have at least some cold weather at some point was 74/75.

It arrived in March & April

Fingers crossed for another freezing winter. Nobody can predict right now, but there is a certain chill in the air that was in the air last October. When reading something last night on the computer, It mentioned something about 'PM Warned about Winter 2010'. I read it all and I found it to be quite interesting, he was warned WAY before it happened and was brodcasted to us. He was warned by some weatherman working in the met office   

It's going to be really funny when it hammers down again  I'm writing this as my bedroom window is getting smashed with rain 

Not how I read it - those are probability maps - not temperature maps.

00/01 was a good winter for the early 21st century, especially February which was bang on average, then of course the record breaking March.

They suggest the most likely outcome is below average temperatures.

Originally Posted by: beng

"I'd go for fairly dry (in my experience weak la nina winters tend to be on the dry side),"

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Which winters were those then?

Originally Posted by: Snow Wolf 

54/55, 62/63, 64/65, 67/68, 74/75, 84/85, 95/96, 00/01, 08/09

Again its worth noting that out of all those winters, the only one that didn't have at least some cold weather at some point was 74/75.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Thanks Gavin - in particular for 62/63!! 

Originally Posted by: Snow Wolf 

Yes thanks Gavin - I'd have struggled to dig out that list  It's good to know that my perception looks to be backed by some facts.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Blizzard92/show.html?entrynum=199

This is quite an interesting read as he covers the various teleconnections and how they're likely to play out this winter.  He's expecting a negative NAO on average, but some flip flopping too.

Originally Posted by: beng

"I'd go for fairly dry (in my experience weak la nina winters tend to be on the dry side),"

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Which winters were those then?

Originally Posted by: beng 

54/55, 62/63, 64/65, 67/68, 74/75, 84/85, 95/96, 00/01, 08/09

Again its worth noting that out of all those winters, the only one that didn't have at least some cold weather at some point was 74/75.

Originally Posted by: Snow Wolf 

Thanks Gavin - in particular for 62/63!! 

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Yes thanks Gavin - I'd have struggled to dig out that list  It's good to know that my perception looks to be backed by some facts.

Originally Posted by: Snow Wolf 

You can check out the full list of ENSO events since 1950 here;

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

(as well as lots of information on the current state)

Originally Posted by: beng

"I'd go for fairly dry (in my experience weak la nina winters tend to be on the dry side),"

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Which winters were those then?

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

54/55, 62/63, 64/65, 67/68, 74/75, 84/85, 95/96, 00/01, 08/09

Again its worth noting that out of all those winters, the only one that didn't have at least some cold weather at some point was 74/75.

Originally Posted by: beng 

Thanks Gavin - in particular for 62/63!! 

Originally Posted by: Snow Wolf 

Yes thanks Gavin - I'd have struggled to dig out that list  It's good to know that my perception looks to be backed by some facts.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

You can check out the full list of ENSO events since 1950 here;

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

(as well as lots of information on the current state)

Originally Posted by: Snow Wolf 

Below is the detailed conclusion  from  NOAA on the Strength of La Nina.

 "Currently, La Niña is not as strong as it was in September 2010. Roughly one- half of the models predict La Niña to strengthen during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter (Fig. 6). Of these models, majority predict a weak La Niña (3-month average in the Nino-3.4 region less than -0.9°C). In addition, a weaker second La Niña winter has occurred in three of the five multi-year La Niñas in the historical SST record since 1950. However, the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS.v1) predicts a moderate-strength La Niña this winter (between –1.0°C to –1.4°C) and CFS.v2 predicts a strong La Niña than –1.5°C), which rivals last year’s peak strength. For CFS forecasts made at this time of year, the average error for December-February is roughly ±0.5°C, so there is uncertainty as to whether this amplitude will be achieved. Thus, at this time, a weak or moderate strength La Niña is most likely during Northern Hemisphere winter."

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Based on this update it's starting to look like an increasingly atlantic dominated winter with time as high pressure receeds southwards with time.

Mild trolling Steve (LOL)

That picture to me paints a cold november. or at least a higher probability of one.

Hi,

With ref to ENSO and it's affect on winter weather - via. Scientific American magazine - AccuWeather currently going for another severe winter across the USA, strongly influenced by La Nina.

Link:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=brutal-winter-predicted-for-us

One item of interest in the article is AccuWeather's prediction with ref to the jet stream, in comparison to last winter. 

They suggest the most likely outcome is below average temperatures.