The Weather Outlook

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beng
  • beng
  • Advanced Member
09 October 2011 15:48:40

Crickey! If I remember right, your forecast is based on statistical relationships between monthly CET values leading up to the winter months? 

Originally Posted by: Justin W 

 

Yes, absolutely. Plus ENSO state (since 1901), North Atlantic SSTs and multiple indice solar output (since 1996).

Originally Posted by: beng 

Thanks Justin.

Reigate, home of the North Downs

Devonian
09 October 2011 15:49:51

They also said 2009/10 was going to be a mild winter and also said summer 2009 would be a bbq summer. Did they ever predict the record heatwave, at the end of the last month? Do you take it for gospel?

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Do you ever look at what the MetO say, or do you just believe the media

The MetO have done pretty well in recent years.  Based on their actual forecasts and not media (mis)interpretation of them

Originally Posted by: Essan 

One could put a number of weather events that were "supposed" to happen down to misinterpretation or misrepresentation of what the Met Office said, but not the "BBQ summer" episode. That phrase was used by at least one BBC forecaster during a TV forecast (think it was Darren Bett) in the spring of 2009, so in that case there was no way they could turn round and claim that what they said was taken out of context. The BBQ summer phrase was entirely the creation of the Met Office themselves, not The Sun or any other newspaper or media outlet.

Originally Posted by: sunnyhighpressure 

I think I would say exceptions don't make very good generalisations

David M Porter
09 October 2011 16:03:40

They also said 2009/10 was going to be a mild winter and also said summer 2009 would be a bbq summer. Did they ever predict the record heatwave, at the end of the last month? Do you take it for gospel?

Originally Posted by: Devonian 

Do you ever look at what the MetO say, or do you just believe the media

The MetO have done pretty well in recent years.  Based on their actual forecasts and not media (mis)interpretation of them

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

One could put a number of weather events that were "supposed" to happen down to misinterpretation or misrepresentation of what the Met Office said, but not the "BBQ summer" episode. That phrase was used by at least one BBC forecaster during a TV forecast (think it was Darren Bett) in the spring of 2009, so in that case there was no way they could turn round and claim that what they said was taken out of context. The BBQ summer phrase was entirely the creation of the Met Office themselves, not The Sun or any other newspaper or media outlet.

Originally Posted by: Essan 

I think I would say exceptions don't make very good generalisations

Originally Posted by: sunnyhighpressure 

True, but that episode didn't exactly do them any favours, did it? Even though the creation of the "BBQ summer" headline was largely down to the MO's press department, why did some of the TV forecasters go along with it as well? They must have known themselves that it was a big gamble, and at the time I was surprised as I had always thought previously that the Met Office kept their cards very close to their chest when asked about long-range weather prospects. That is what they used to do anyway.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

John p
09 October 2011 17:51:22

Latest update from GP over at Netweather

It's interesting to note that the upward trend in AAM happend before the current MJO wave began to develop, possibly the two facets of the atmosphere-ocean dynamical process responding to the same lead ? We have had three strong +MT events now, all driving the GWO into a high angular momentum base state.

Not sure we can confidently count on AAM crashing anytime soon. October's GLAAM value should be unprecedented in the 53 yr time series in terms of going from a negative value in September through to a positive value in October.

Our closest analogue in this respect is 1995 with a disconnect between ENSO and the atmospheric circulation, which may well last until December. The QBO is also interesting. Lastest daily values actually have it weakening at 30 hPa (less easterly), with the lower stratospheric levels still showing a westerly wind.

All of which means that ENSO forecasts for the winter mean squat right now

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/58354-in-depth-technical-model-discussion/page__view__findpost__p__2142275

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

I didn't understand a word of that...!

Camberley, Surrey
heathy
09 October 2011 19:09:21

Latest update from GP over at Netweather

It's interesting to note that the upward trend in AAM happend before the current MJO wave began to develop, possibly the two facets of the atmosphere-ocean dynamical process responding to the same lead ? We have had three strong +MT events now, all driving the GWO into a high angular momentum base state.

Not sure we can confidently count on AAM crashing anytime soon. October's GLAAM value should be unprecedented in the 53 yr time series in terms of going from a negative value in September through to a positive value in October.

Our closest analogue in this respect is 1995 with a disconnect between ENSO and the atmospheric circulation, which may well last until December. The QBO is also interesting. Lastest daily values actually have it weakening at 30 hPa (less easterly), with the lower stratospheric levels still showing a westerly wind.

All of which means that ENSO forecasts for the winter mean squat right now

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/58354-in-depth-technical-model-discussion/page__view__findpost__p__2142275

Originally Posted by: John p 

I didn't understand a word of that...!

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 



Makes two of us John, all I want to read is whether it will be mild or cold !

tallyho_83
09 October 2011 23:31:47
This keeps it milder, do you trust the CFS forecasts!?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif 

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

LeedsLad123
09 October 2011 23:49:17

This keeps it milder, do you trust the CFS forecasts!?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

No.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
roger63
  • roger63
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
10 October 2011 06:56:04

This keeps it milder, do you trust the CFS forecasts!?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

No.

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

No.Because they are assuming  a stronger La Nina than other Models eg METO.

festivalking
10 October 2011 07:47:42

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15199065

 

Does not give a prediction but another view on the warm / cold winter debate.

Dousland, Dartmoor 206 m/asl

Its only going to snow when Gibby says so.

tallyho_83
10 October 2011 09:33:34

This keeps it milder, do you trust the CFS forecasts!?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Originally Posted by: roger63 

No.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

No.Because they are assuming  a stronger La Nina than other Models eg METO.

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

 

I thought a stronger la Nina would mean colder and drier weather?? That above chart shows it milder for moths of DEC,JAN FEB!?  -So the chart is not to be trusted?!

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

sunnyhighpressure
10 October 2011 10:17:04

This keeps it milder, do you trust the CFS forecasts!?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

No.

Originally Posted by: roger63 

No.Because they are assuming  a stronger La Nina than other Models eg METO.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

 

I thought a stronger la Nina would mean colder and drier weather?? That above chart shows it milder for moths of DEC,JAN FEB!?  -So the chart is not to be trusted?!

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

No it means majority of the time mild and unsettled weather. The chart above is over doing the la nina apparently, therefore there is little point looking at it for now at least. 

Gavin D
10 October 2011 10:38:46

No surprises that the Daily Express have joined the Mini Ice age bandwagon

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/276516

mikeyo
10 October 2011 11:25:35

No surprises that the Daily Express have joined the Mini Ice age bandwagon

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/276516

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

 

Coldies, time for celebration! Although, if it turns out mild, as long as we have a white x-mas that will do me.

beng
  • beng
  • Advanced Member
10 October 2011 11:59:07

No surprises that the Daily Express have joined the Mini Ice age bandwagon

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/276516

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

 

Yes - time to dust down the BBQ then

Reigate, home of the North Downs

Joe Bloggs
10 October 2011 12:28:54

No surprises that the Daily Express have joined the Mini Ice age bandwagon

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/276516

Originally Posted by: beng 

 

Yes - time to dust down the BBQ then

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Yep, I'd be very surprised to see a cold winter after all this nonsense.

It just wouldn't be good karma would it?

nsrobins
10 October 2011 13:18:06
"La Nina, which occurs every three to five years, has a powerful effect on weather thousands of miles away by influencing an intense upper air current that helps create low pressure fronts"

I'm glad they explained that - it clears eveything up.

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Gavin D
10 October 2011 13:20:17

No surprises that the Daily Express have joined the Mini Ice age bandwagon

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/276516

Originally Posted by: beng 

Yes - time to dust down the BBQ then

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

lol, I know what you mean, back in April the Express ran a front page headline saying record-breaking heat for summer turned out cold and wet, Winter -20c in weeks Mini Ice Age on the way, what will it actually be like?

beanoir
10 October 2011 13:25:24

No surprises that the Daily Express have joined the Mini Ice age bandwagon

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/276516

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Don't you hate such predictability... 

Langford, Bedfordshire
Gavin D
10 October 2011 13:31:12

The latest Met Office probability maps are out for October,

Temperature

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20111001/3up_20111001_temp2m_months35_europe_prob_public.png

Precipitation

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20111001/3up_20111001_prec_months35_europe_prob_public.png

Sea level pressure

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20111001/3up_20111001_mslp_months35_europe_prob_public.png

Brian Gaze
10 October 2011 13:37:13

The latest Met Office probability maps are out for October,

Temperature

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20111001/3up_20111001_temp2m_months35_europe_prob_public.png

Precipitation

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20111001/3up_20111001_prec_months35_europe_prob_public.png

Sea level pressure

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20111001/3up_20111001_mslp_months35_europe_prob_public.png

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

MetO charts suggest the most likely outcome is for above average temperatures Dec - Feb.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Gavin D
10 October 2011 13:41:11

The latest Met Office probability maps are out for October,

Temperature

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20111001/3up_20111001_temp2m_months35_europe_prob_public.png

Precipitation

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20111001/3up_20111001_prec_months35_europe_prob_public.png

Sea level pressure

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20111001/3up_20111001_mslp_months35_europe_prob_public.png

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

MetO charts suggest the most likely outcome is for above average temperatures Dec - Feb.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Indeed, all this talk about a cold winter and then the Met Office charts come along and suggest a warmer one lol.

roger63
  • roger63
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
10 October 2011 14:10:59

The latest Met Office probability maps are out for October,

Temperature

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20111001/3up_20111001_temp2m_months35_europe_prob_public.png

Precipitation

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20111001/3up_20111001_prec_months35_europe_prob_public.png

Sea level pressure

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20111001/3up_20111001_mslp_months35_europe_prob_public.png

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

MetO charts suggest the most likely outcome is for above average temperatures Dec - Feb.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Indeed, all this talk about a cold winter and then the Met Office charts come along and suggest a warmer one lol.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Yes A bitter dissapointment for coldies.Meto have switched from a below average winter in Septembers charts to  as Brian says an above average in Octobers charts.That HP anomaly to the SW seems to b ethreatenibg us with a boring winter.

Solar Cycles
10 October 2011 14:12:33

The latest Met Office probability maps are out for October,

Temperature

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20111001/3up_20111001_temp2m_months35_europe_prob_public.png

Precipitation

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20111001/3up_20111001_prec_months35_europe_prob_public.png

Sea level pressure

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20111001/3up_20111001_mslp_months35_europe_prob_public.png

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

MetO charts suggest the most likely outcome is for above average temperatures Dec - Feb.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Indeed, all this talk about a cold winter and then the Met Office charts come along and suggest a warmer one lol.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

No suprises there then, remember they factor in the AGW effect. 

haggishunter
10 October 2011 14:26:40

The latest Met Office probability maps are out for October,

Temperature

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20111001/3up_20111001_temp2m_months35_europe_prob_public.png

Precipitation

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20111001/3up_20111001_prec_months35_europe_prob_public.png

Sea level pressure

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20111001/3up_20111001_mslp_months35_europe_prob_public.png

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

MetO charts suggest the most likely outcome is for above average temperatures Dec - Feb.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Indeed, all this talk about a cold winter and then the Met Office charts come along and suggest a warmer one lol.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

They suggest a slight bias in favour of above average temps away from the North of Scotland. It is not a forecast for a warm winter, not that it's like you to misrepresent charts completely. Undeicided whether you are thick or are simply trolling half the time.

WeatherExpert81
10 October 2011 14:30:56

The latest Met Office probability maps are out for October,

Temperature

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20111001/3up_20111001_temp2m_months35_europe_prob_public.png

Precipitation

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20111001/3up_20111001_prec_months35_europe_prob_public.png

Sea level pressure

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20111001/3up_20111001_mslp_months35_europe_prob_public.png

Originally Posted by: haggishunter 

MetO charts suggest the most likely outcome is for above average temperatures Dec - Feb.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Indeed, all this talk about a cold winter and then the Met Office charts come along and suggest a warmer one lol.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

They suggest a slight bias in favour of above average temps away from the North of Scotland. It is not a forecast for a warm winter, not that it's like you to misrepresent charts completely. Undeicided whether you are thick or are simply trolling half the time.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 



Ouch.  

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