I've seen snow in every month between October and June, even in a lowland southern location. SF's point is that this is a winter thread not an October one

Ah. Well it's a winter prospects thread, which implies that we are looking at long-term models and signals etc to determine what this winter is going to be like. I suppose we could wait until winter is upon us, that way we'll be more accurate in our forecasts 

A very bland and uninteresting forecast from what I can see. Just pretty much stating the bleeding obvious. Nothing much of interest there, temps around average, precip around average...

www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=836;sess=

This is far more interesting

UK winter - No cause for alarmism

11 October 2011 - Over the past few weeks, there have been some colourful headlines in some parts of the media about what's in store for this year's winter in the UK.

Reports of '-20C within weeks', 'A winter fuel crisis on the way' and 'Widespread snow in October' have all raised expectations that we're in for an 'Arctic winter'.

In an opinion piece for The Times, John Hirst - Chief Executive of the Met Office - calls for a sense of reason in response to the claims and makes clear these forecasts are not from Met Office.

He states: "[These headlines] bear no relation to the kinds of weather that forecasters at the Met Office are currently expecting - there is no need for alarm. These stories do reflect our national obsession with the weather but they can also confuse and even scare vulnerable people. The Met Office's job is to provide accurate and reliable information and at this stage we see no scientific evidence to support these premature predictions.

"In fact the scientific capability does not exist to allow such extremes to be identified on a long-range timescale... no forecaster can say whether we'll see a week of -20C temperatures in Manchester in the second week of December. This does not mean that harsh winter conditions are not possible, just that they cannot be identified at the moment."

He concludes: "In recent years we have seen great scientific and technological advances that allow us to warn of impending severe weather with ever greater lead times and with ever greater detail. Rest assured that this year the Met Office will continue to offer that service, warning of any severe weather in plenty of time to get out the gritters - and the jumpers - when it matters."

You can see the full and unabridged piece in The Times (registration required).

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2011/the-times-opinion

Link please? 

I only listen to James Madden. He's been right twice and the MetO are quite...

I disagree with what moomin says anyway. They have perhaps been a little conservative after the summer forecast debacle, but I wouldn't call it a bland forecast. They do forecast a cool November and December, and moomin of all people should know of the fine details we can't yet know of as we get into winter  Netweather seem to think the Atlantic will return in the new year...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Latest CFS seasonal DJF swinging slightly back to below normal probability.Because of the ferquency of updates virtually daily it is easy to give the CFS  probabilitiies too much weight.As we get nearer to DJF would expect bit more consistency.So will be waiting to look at the early November output to see if there is a clearer picture.  

After a cold period they show it warming slowly from February they also show is another Warm spring as per this year.

Netweather have updated their Winter LFR,

November

As has been the case for a few months now, November is expected to see cooler than average temperatures for at least some parts of the country (albeit the current expectation is for temperatures to be fairly close to the average).

Rainfall too is expected to be a little way below the norm for the time of the year. The reason for this is that pressure is expected to be highest to the north of the UK - this type of 'northern blocking' can often allow a feed of cold or cool air to move toward the British Isles.

Winter

December

Winter is expected to begin with the northern blocking still in place, and this means that temperatures are forecast to be below average for much of the country. Rainfall levels are forecast to be close to, or a little below normal for the time of year.

January

As is always the case, the further into the forecast we go, the lower confidence there is so please bear this in mind as we look ahead to January..

Current expectations are that January will bring something of a change in pattern with Atlantic low pressure having more influence and bring milder temperatures with rainfall close to the seasonal average too.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess= 

So November and December Cold but Rainfall close to, or a little below normal, January could see the warm up begin with the Atlantic waking up to bring rain but warmer temperatures.

2010 we had snow every month  through to May 12th, then again in November.

Gavin Presutti told you last night if you didn't see it. 

The dark reds could mean absolutly anything, it just says that it is a very high chance of being above average. For all we know it maybe 0.1 above the average and I would look at pressure anomaly maps first, other than them. 

Sorry for sounding like a broken record to people or bringing it up again. But some people who don't know fully the ins and outs of the models and lrfs are going to get confused and take this as face value and believe it, when it is not true.

Besides Gavin Presutti knows his stuff, afterall it was him, who I heard, predicted the cold run of winter expected around this time of decade and the turn of new decade, of course I, as a newer established member of TWO was not around. But people have told me these things during the great winters of 2008 to december 2010.

You Know Gav it is times like this I look forward to reading some of the thoughts on here since the turn of winters recently.

Just so we know, I'm Gavin Partridge. Not to be confused with my old friend Tom Presutti of the 2012 Presutti Polar era.

You got to say Gavin Presutti does sound quite impressive!

It has a ring to it. 'Gavin Presutti'.

Thats about as bland and non-commital as i'd expect the MetO to be - A bit like a certain other " two-bit forecaster" in the midsts of our forum" 

Whilst I agree that some individuals hype and sensationalise, and I by no means support that kind of behaviour, at least others are prepared to have a go at risk of getting it wrong (but learning along the way), which is more than can be said of the MetO these days.    

Given what happened in 2009 when the Met Office famously predicted a "BBQ summer" (which ultimately turned into a washout for many), and then their forecast of a mild 2009/10 winter (which actually gave many parts of the country their coldest weather since the 80's), I can understand the MetO being cautious. From what I remember of them years ago though, back in the 90's and further back than that, they often used to keep their cards very close to their chest whenever they were asked about long-term weather prospects, hence why I was so surprised when they boldly predicted a good summer in 2009, when we were onl about half-way through that spring.

This is true, and it comes partly from people expecting more and more accurate forecasts and holding those that provide them to their very word.

It's probably a bit unfair of me to accuse the MetO of being so hermitic given their experiences but the trouble is in lieu of the LRFs that the MetO used to provide people (and papers unfortunately including our ever increasingly tabloidesque BBC) turn to other less experienced forecasting agencies and individuals that are not playing to the same rules as the MetO.  As i've said before, there is nothing wrong per se with amateurs, hobbyists and the like but they are more likely to have a go and take the risks associated with that.  

We can all knock the sensasionalists until the cows come home, but unfortunately it is driven by the general public's insatiable desire and expectation - we only have ourselves to blame for that.  

I personally would like to see the MetO become a bit more forward thinking, less risk averse (true of many public bodies) and come back to providing more public forecasts and views on longer range weather - if only as an attempt to try and quell the muppets that plague us with novelty forecasts.