There are already comments on next winter in two threads-"Weatherline look at winter 2011/12 and "UK faces more harsh winters in solar activity dip".So its seems good time to start a dedicated prospects for winter 2011/12" thread.
Brian Gaze wrote last week that " I’ve seen nothing to suggest we’ve returned to weather patterns similar to those between 1991- 2006. So don’t count on a mild one, even though the May SST profile may not have suggested a cold winter this year. No one at this stage can be confident about the winter prospects, but my view is we’re starting with a higher than average chance of a cold one."
In looking at the various influences I start with ENSO.The latest NOAA forecast suggests a neutral position persisting into the fall,suggesting that there is little time for any significant influence to develop that could affect next winter in the UK.So ther factors than ENSO will have a stronger influence.
Brian has already noted that the May SST's are not suggestive of a cold winter.Currently there is a broad belt of negative anomalies stretching acroos the Atlantic from Newfoundland to the UK but that may be is more of an influence on current summer weather than next winter.
Solar activity continues to be low.Current sunspot number is 42 and NOAA are predicting that the current solar cycle 24 will peak in May 2013 with a number of only 90,the lowest of any cycle since no 16 in 1928.
Perhaps the most interesting factor is the similarity in the pattern of summer weather to recent summers.Nothern bolcking has continued over Greenland,the jet steam is currently back over southern england and looking at the poor METO forecast for the next month suggest a similar pattern.
So without getting too precise at this satge I would go for a colder than average winter.Be intersted to see your thoughts on inflencing factors and likely outcomes.
In my opinion, comments such as "UK faces more harsh winters" are just a swift reaction to what we've seen in the last 3 winters.
In the same way, after 2006, we were getting newspaper stories saying "UK will face more Mediterranean summers".
It's all complete conjecture of the writers, nothing more, nothing less.
When we had 2007 and 2008 being as wet and cool as they were, there were some reports that then stated "UK may face cooler wetter summers."
When people actually start to realise that the UK climate is a temperate maritime climate, and by its very nature, we will always have forever changeable seasons, it would be a very good day for UK meterology.
Just because the last 3 winters have been colder than we've become accustomed to, does NOT mean that we are now in for a prolonged run of colder winters.
We may be, but that's got nothing to do with what has happened in the past 3 years.
On the other side of the coin, we MAY be in for a run of milder than average winters again now. The simple fact is, NO-ONE knows and NO-ONE ever will know!
There are just too many parameters to consider - and it's just just simply because we've had a few years of varying conditions that is how it will remain ad infintum.
Yes I know I do LRFs, but they are purely for fun, and should not be taken seriously.
I have some successes, and some failures. The truth is, I know as little about the British climate as anybody else.
As for this winter. There's a 50/50 chance of it being colder or warmer than average, just as there is EVERY year!
Edited by user
08 July 2011 13:55:56
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Reason: Not specified
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL