The Weather Outlook

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Steam Fog
16 October 2011 14:16:50

On the other hand if you had high pressure sitting off Spain, then moving up to Scandinavia. You would average it out as sitting over the UK. But might well see a lot of easterlies out of it when it was over Scandinavia.

John S2
16 October 2011 14:54:49

On the other hand if you had high pressure sitting off Spain, then moving up to Scandinavia. You would average it out as sitting over the UK. But might well see a lot of easterlies out of it when it was over Scandinavia.

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog 

Reminded me of Jan 1987. High over Biscay on the 4th, sat over Britain on the 7th, 1040+ mb over Scandinavia on the 11th.

One interesting aspect related to this is that the 3-month period Oct 1986-Dec 1986 was persistently zonal, so I don't think those wishing for at least one cold month this winter need worry about current model output showing westerlies. 

Matty H
16 October 2011 14:57:14

An even worse postion for HP would be over Europe prticularly Inberia - yuk.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1998/Rrea00119980215.gif

Originally Posted by: Snow Wolf 

THE best winter chart of all time, bar none


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Snow Wolf
16 October 2011 15:10:08

An even worse postion for HP would be over Europe prticularly Inberia - yuk.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1998/Rrea00119980215.gif

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

THE best winter chart of all time, bar none

Originally Posted by: Snow Wolf 

LOL - how to polarise the forum with one chart.

When is Brian posting his early winter thoughts - sometime today I guess?

16 October 2011 15:37:01

Seeing as its Forecast time, I thought I'd quickly pop my'n in just for fun :-)

 

December : Likely to start off mild, the jet stream stradding across the middle of the UK as an average position , and quite strong, with strengthy winds blowing in off the atlantic, from a series of potent LP systems feeding in and centered over NW Scotland, as the LP systems move off East, they drag in colder air, and this brings some further snow fall to the Scottish Hills and Mountains, with a wintery mix to the tops of the hills on the North of the UK, heavy rain for a time elsewhere.

A windy picture to start Dec for the vast majority of the UK, milder in the SE, about average temperatures for the Midlands, Wales, and the SW, always colder the further North one goes.

A damp and overcast start for the majority, not many exceptions to this rule, bar perhps the East Coastal fringes of the UK.

HP begins to build to the South of the UK taking up residence across the South and West , feeding in with it a more settled theme to all bar the extreme north of Scotland as we enter mid month, winds fall light, and there's plenty of brighness to be had.

Hard frosts overnight UK wide, as the winds ease.

Sotland still effected by more unstelled weather to the North, where from time to time, the feed is coming from immediate North, keeping temperatures here cool, more snow on the mountains, and a wintery mix to low levels of Sc otland, from the border south it will feel cold during the day, and especially by night, some fog and mist around early morning.

As we enter the start of the festive season I see Omega blocking becoming more persistent with HP having drifted off more to the West of the UK, allowing an ever increasing NE 'sterly feed to start effecting the NE of the Country, winds pick up, and in the extreme NE of Scotland and England temperatures drop like a stone with an increasing wind chilll factor being felt.

Plenty of lengthy spells of snow here, with some large accumulations.

Wetsern areas more under the influence of HP, so here a significantly brighter period, still cold, but dry, wind gentle winds, the border line between to two systems will see some snow, and a mixture of ''wintery precipitation".

To the south of the UK, condisions will be about average on both temperature, sunshine amounts, and drier to start with, perhaps falling more and more under the influence of LP as it drifts down from the NE.

 

X-Mas and into the new year.

This is where I can see a large scale change taking place, as LP moves West to be centered for a time over the UK, before HP exters itself more and it slips off East and South, in January, before this hapens the East of the UK, and the SE, have a chance of seeing some decent snow fall, and the weather direction is now more from the NE than from the West, or South.

I don't believe the feed from the East will ever make it's way as far West as Ireland, and for a time a good old battleground set up might be in effect in this area as we head into 2012, effecting the SW of the country for a time, with some snow here and in Wales on the very tops of the hills , sleety mix elsewhere.

For scotland I can see both a white x-mas and a white new years here, directly from the effects of the NE sterly.

Jan 2012 : - I think that the first few days will see some cold conditions UK wide, some laying snow still around in the SE, SC England, Eastern Parts of Wales, and N.Ireland, NE England, and Scotland.

LP gives way to HP from the West sinking southwards, and allowing the Altantic to come in.

Temperatures nationwide lift as a result, but with it comes the threat of string winds, and rain.

A gloomy month to start with for most, and a thaw of any lying snow.

Mid January I believe HP to be sitting to the South of the UK, allowing the feed to be coming more from a NW terly, mild to the South, and South West, slightly cooler to the East, but coldder in the North West, and Scotland.

Still quite windy, especialy in Scotland with some heavy rain here, falling as snow over the scottish mountains where blizzard conditions will be felt.

January ends with temperatures about everage for much of the country, however I believe HP once again finds it's way to our West, and centered closer to Iceland this time, and as we come into Feb, i blieve winter will really start to be felt.

A bitterly easterly driven front will push right across the UK brigning with it, cold daytime and exceptionally cold night time temperatures, winds a little strong , and lots of snow falling out of the sky, effecting the whole country.

HP slow to move from the NW of the UK, allowing the LP system to dump a lot of moisture over the UK, before finally sinking off south and east, or fizzling out alltogether.

I think FEB 2012 will make headlines, and will be a month to remember.

So Overal I think Dec will be cold(ish), nothing like last winter, and a lot dryer for the majortiy.

Jan will be a pretty unsettled moth with no real dominant pattern

Feb will be COLD and snowy :)

 

There that's my half hearted attempt...take it or leave it, but at least I had a go

 

Jay

Brian Gaze
16 October 2011 15:59:02

An even worse postion for HP would be over Europe prticularly Inberia - yuk.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1998/Rrea00119980215.gif

Originally Posted by: Snow Wolf 

THE best winter chart of all time, bar none

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

LOL - how to polarise the forum with one chart.

When is Brian posting his early winter thoughts - sometime today I guess?

Originally Posted by: Snow Wolf 

Yes.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

sriram
16 October 2011 17:14:04

we all wait on Brian's thoughts for winter

lets hope its a good read


Sriram

Sedgley, West Midlands ( just south of Wolverhampton )

162m ASL

Brian Gaze
16 October 2011 17:59:37

See:

http://theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=bg&id=1821


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Steam Fog
16 October 2011 18:10:08

Interesting read! Thank you.

beng
  • beng
  • Advanced Member
16 October 2011 18:38:53

Makes a lot of sense - no polar bears then. 

 

FWIW, My thinking at the moment I think we need to lose the warm SST anomaly to our SW before we're going to see much in the way of cold weather (cold upper air) - at least in the Southern half of the UK.  If that anomaly decreases, then I think we'll be in with a shot. In other words I'm not convinced about the front loaded winter that some of the forecasts out there are going for. Sounds like you're not really going for that either Brian.


Reigate, home of the North Downs

pdiddy
16 October 2011 18:51:05

MIght want to change the header to Winter 11-12 Brian?  Even a novice like me can do last winter!

 

Dingle Rob
16 October 2011 18:55:43

 

It will be interesting to see how the various factors trend over the next 6 weeks. If I recall rightly, Brian, it was developments during the last couple of weeks in November that swung your winter forecast last year.

roger63
  • roger63
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
16 October 2011 19:00:25

From Brians wnter thoughts

"Pattern matching
As we’re only half way through the autumn it is too early to draw conclusions here. However, there have been suggestions of less lower pressure over Greenland, with the vortex possibly setting up there." (my bold on "less")"

Presumably you mean simply lower pressure over Greenland?

Overall an analysis which very honestly concludes that many signals are either weak or unclear.Given that,as you say, the signal from latter part  of Autumn could have extra weight.My personal view is still for a slightly below average CET ,but if for example Autumn turns out very dry and warm then I would tilt towards slightly above average.



 

Gavin D
16 October 2011 19:17:33

Thanks Brian I like what I'm reading,

A drier than average winter, with temperatures close to average, possibly slightly colder further south and east.

At least early indications point to a drier than average winter, hopefully this will mean the disruptive and rather deep snow of 2010 will not make a return.

LeedsLad123
16 October 2011 19:45:14

Best migrate to Sweden for the winter


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Sevendust
16 October 2011 19:47:56

Thanks Brian I like what I'm reading,

A drier than average winter, with temperatures close to average, possibly slightly colder further south and east.

At least early indications point to a drier than average winter, hopefully this will mean the drought will make a return.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Sevendust
16 October 2011 19:49:03

Best migrate to Sweden for the winter

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

Cracking birds

Gavin D
16 October 2011 19:54:02

Thanks Brian I like what I'm reading,

A drier than average winter, with temperatures close to average, possibly slightly colder further south and east.

At least early indications point to a drier than average winter, hopefully this will mean the drought will make a return.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

If you are going to Quote me at least get it right i DID NOT write hopefully this will mean the drought will make a return at all.

I wrote hopefully this will mean the disruptive and rather deep snow of 2010 will not make a return.

nickl
16 October 2011 19:58:25

Thanks Brian I like what I'm reading,

A drier than average winter, with temperatures close to average, possibly slightly colder further south and east.

At least early indications point to a drier than average winter, hopefully this will mean the drought will make a return.

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

If you are going to Quote me at least get it right i DID NOT write hopefully this will mean the drought will make a return at all.

I wrote hopefully this will mean the disruptive and rather deep snow of 2010 will not make a return.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

it was a joke gavin. chill out !!!

Essan
16 October 2011 20:11:58

But for a drought to return doesn't it have to first go away 

So surely it should be "hopefully this means the drought will further intensify"* 

 

(*in those places which have experienced exceptionally low rain fall in the past 12 month)


Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News 

Look in the doubt we've wallowed, look at the leaders we've followed, look at the lies we've swallowed, and I don't want to hear no more

Snow Wolf
16 October 2011 20:21:59

But for a drought to return doesn't it have to first go away 

So surely it should be "hopefully this means the drought will further intensify"* 

 

(*in those places which have experienced exceptionally low rain fall in the past 12 month)

Originally Posted by: Essan 

Why in God's name does anyone wish for a drought to continue throughout winter?

Steam Fog
16 October 2011 20:27:00

I'm not sure that it adds up that "dry" conditions will mean less snow than last December.

Last December was very dry throughout the UK:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2010/12/2010_12_Rainfall_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif

NickR
16 October 2011 20:28:36

But for a drought to return doesn't it have to first go away 

So surely it should be "hopefully this means the drought will further intensify"* 

 

(*in those places which have experienced exceptionally low rain fall in the past 12 month)

Originally Posted by: Snow Wolf 

Why in God's name does anyone wish for a drought to continue throughout winter?

Originally Posted by: Essan 

Hear, hear! There are far too many weirdos on here wishing for a lack of proper cold and no decent amounts of snow.

I just don't get it!


Nick

Durham

[email protected]

Matty H
16 October 2011 20:31:22

I'll be happy with a very wet winter. A very wet winter will mean it's likely a mild one too overall


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

LeedsLad123
16 October 2011 20:38:02

If February 2011 is anything to go by, I'd rather not.


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.

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