The Weather Outlook

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Gavin P
04 October 2011 08:10:49

I shall just keep a dignified silence.

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

nsrobins
04 October 2011 11:07:47

I shall just keep a dignified silence.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Very out of character, Gavin!

And another thing - since when did Michael live in Aberdeen? I had no idea

 

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Joe Bloggs
04 October 2011 11:10:32

I shall just keep a dignified silence.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Very out of character, Gavin!

And another thing - since when did Michael live in Aberdeen? I had no idea

 

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

nouska
04 October 2011 13:44:26
MeteoFrance were on the ball last year with their prognosis of "froid" for late autumn/early winter - will they be right again with their prediction of a cold trimester? ECMWF only model showing an above scenario.

http://france.meteofrance.com/content/2011/9/25941-48.pdf 

Might be useful to compare what the five LRF agencies predict for ENSO for OND.

JMA -0.2

IRI -0.9

ECMWF -0.4

MF -0.7

MetO -1

Brian Gaze
04 October 2011 16:15:13
BWS apparently going for a cold winter.
Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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roger63
  • roger63
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
04 October 2011 16:18:49

MeteoFrance were on the ball last year with their prognosis of "froid" for late autumn/early winter - will they be right again with their prediction of a cold trimester? ECMWF only model showing an above scenario.

http://france.meteofrance.com/content/2011/9/25941-48.pdf

Might be useful to compare what the five LRF agencies predict for ENSO for OND.

JMA -0.2
IRI -0.9
ECMWF -0.4
MF -0.7
MetO -1

Originally Posted by: nouska 

Fascinating  all La Nina forecasts currently in the weak area.METO have the strongest forecast so it will be very intersting to see if the METO forecast charts for winter coming out in October will move from the September below average temperatures for DJF.

Gavin P
04 October 2011 16:27:12

BWS apparently going for a cold winter.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Where did you hear that Brian?

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

moomin75
04 October 2011 16:29:06

BWS apparently going for a cold winter.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Who are BWS?

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Charmhills
04 October 2011 16:52:06

BWS apparently going for a cold winter.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Where did you hear that Brian?

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

British weather service.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

John S2
04 October 2011 17:00:58

BWS apparently going for a cold winter.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

What reasons do they give for this prediction?

Brian Gaze
04 October 2011 17:52:58

BWS apparently going for a cold winter.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Where did you hear that Brian?

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Scotsman today.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/Year-the-weather-went-wonky.6847292.jp

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Gavin P
04 October 2011 18:17:08

BWS apparently going for a cold winter.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Where did you hear that Brian?

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Scotsman today.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/Year-the-weather-went-wonky.6847292.jp

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Thanks Brian.

I notice someone called Brian Gaze is also quoted in that piece. Who he I wonder?

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Gavin D
04 October 2011 18:40:43

"It doesn't necessarily mean it will be as prolonged or as bad as last December, but we do feel that the Arctic influence will be there at times.

"We are in a period of colder than average winters and that in itself can deliver spikes that result in these short spells of more severe weather."

It may not be as bad as December 2011, that is promising.

pdiddy
04 October 2011 19:18:53

Not sure if there are any twitchers out there, but the number of geese flying past seems far more (and earlier) than previous years when I tend to notice in later October.  No doubt someone can update/refute on this!

Brian Gaze
04 October 2011 19:21:54

I notice someone called Brian Gaze is also quoted in that piece. Who he I wonder?

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

They pushed me for a quote about this coming winter but I wouldn't give them one.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Brian Gaze
04 October 2011 19:26:04

Fascinating  all La Nina forecasts currently in the weak area.METO have the strongest forecast so it will be very intersting to see if the METO forecast charts for winter coming out in October will move from the September below average temperatures for DJF.

Originally Posted by: roger63 

Have you got a link to the MetO seasonal charts?

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Gavin P
04 October 2011 20:09:16

Fascinating  all La Nina forecasts currently in the weak area.METO have the strongest forecast so it will be very intersting to see if the METO forecast charts for winter coming out in October will move from the September below average temperatures for DJF.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Have you got a link to the MetO seasonal charts?

Originally Posted by: roger63 

The only viewable seasonal charts are these probability maps;

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob#20110901&months46&global&temp2m&3up

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

hedgehog4
04 October 2011 20:10:13

"It doesn't necessarily mean it will be as prolonged or as bad as last December, but we do feel that the Arctic influence will be there at times.

"We are in a period of colder than average winters and that in itself can deliver spikes that result in these short spells of more severe weather."

It may not be as bad as December 2011, that is promising.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

 
Not to forget though, December 2010 was beyond belief!
A cold December like last year will probably be virtually impossible ...
Although, if there was lets say 4 days of complete disruption last year, then a December not as bad may still bring one or two ...
I agree with you though, a sigh of relief 😛  

LeedsLad123
04 October 2011 20:11:53

"It doesn't necessarily mean it will be as prolonged or as bad as last December, but we do feel that the Arctic influence will be there at times.

"We are in a period of colder than average winters and that in itself can deliver spikes that result in these short spells of more severe weather."

It may not be as bad as December 2011, that is promising.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Do you know something we don't?

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Snow Wolf
04 October 2011 20:32:17

BWS apparently going for a cold winter.

Originally Posted by: John S2 

What reasons do they give for this prediction?

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Because they want to promote their 'Corporate Weather Impact Insurance'. 

http://www.britishweatherservices.co.uk/index.asp

Brian Gaze
04 October 2011 20:35:41

Fascinating  all La Nina forecasts currently in the weak area.METO have the strongest forecast so it will be very intersting to see if the METO forecast charts for winter coming out in October will move from the September below average temperatures for DJF.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Have you got a link to the MetO seasonal charts?

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

The only viewable seasonal charts are these probability maps;

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob#20110901&months46&global&temp2m&3up

Originally Posted by: roger63 

 So the MetO seasonal product is going for below average temps this winter.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Essan
04 October 2011 21:17:38

Fascinating  all La Nina forecasts currently in the weak area.METO have the strongest forecast so it will be very intersting to see if the METO forecast charts for winter coming out in October will move from the September below average temperatures for DJF.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Have you got a link to the MetO seasonal charts?

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

The only viewable seasonal charts are these probability maps;

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob#20110901&months46&global&temp2m&3up

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

 So the MetO seasonal product is going for below average temps this winter.

Originally Posted by: roger63 

 

And dry.

May not be snowy nor necessarily as cold as last winter though

 

But next couple of runs will be interesting to see how the latter part of winter is expected to pan out - a repeat of this year?

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News 

Look in the doubt we've wallowed, look at the leaders we've followed, look at the lies we've swallowed, and I don't want to hear no more

roger63
  • roger63
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
05 October 2011 07:21:22

Fascinating  all La Nina forecasts currently in the weak area.METO have the strongest forecast so it will be very intersting to see if the METO forecast charts for winter coming out in October will move from the September below average temperatures for DJF.

Originally Posted by: Essan 

Have you got a link to the MetO seasonal charts?

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

The only viewable seasonal charts are these probability maps;

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob#20110901&months46&global&temp2m&3up

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

 So the MetO seasonal product is going for below average temps this winter.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

 

And dry.

May not be snowy nor necessarily as cold as last winter though

 

But next couple of runs will be interesting to see how the latter part of winter is expected to pan out - a repeat of this year?

Originally Posted by: roger63 

Of course  the METO October update for D,J ,F could change - like the CFS charts whcih have swung from below average  to above average in just acouple of weeks.Anyone know when the METO October update is due?

Snow Hoper
05 October 2011 07:23:08

 

Of course  the METO October update for D,J ,F could change - like the CFS charts whcih have swung from below average  to above average in just acouple of weeks.Anyone know when the METO October update is due?

Originally Posted by: roger63 

 

Middle of the month I think

Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.

Home : Mid Suffolk.

48m Asl

beng
  • beng
  • Advanced Member
05 October 2011 07:44:38

Fascinating  all La Nina forecasts currently in the weak area.METO have the strongest forecast so it will be very intersting to see if the METO forecast charts for winter coming out in October will move from the September below average temperatures for DJF.

Originally Posted by: Essan 

Have you got a link to the MetO seasonal charts?

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

The only viewable seasonal charts are these probability maps;

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob#20110901&months46&global&temp2m&3up

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

 So the MetO seasonal product is going for below average temps this winter.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

 

And dry.

May not be snowy nor necessarily as cold as last winter though

 

But next couple of runs will be interesting to see how the latter part of winter is expected to pan out - a repeat of this year?

Originally Posted by: roger63 

 

I'd go for fairly dry (in my experience weak la nina winters tend to be on the dry side), although that doesn't rule out snow.  I think it could be colder overall than last winter though, as last year the winter was really top loaded.  We ought to see a cooler Feb this winter, relative to the last winter - due to the 'expected' weaker la nina and QBO being more supportive.

All guess work though! 

 

Just out of interest, If TomC is reading - what's the latest on the winter tyes? Are they going on shortly - or are they on hold until late Dec/Jan?  My thinking is that given your contacts on the inside, your answer ought to give us some clues about the way the MO is thinking, even if they won't publish.

 

Reigate, home of the North Downs

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