If anything October could be remembered for the lack of rain and dominance of high pressure rather than Snow.

Since James front page Express story he did change what he said to this,

I expect the most frequent and heavy snowfalls to occur across many parts of the UK during, November, December and January, so who knows only time will tell.

James made his claim to fame based on forecasts issued earlier in the year. He has received the publicity he seems to have so obviously craved; exploiting it by posting media links and headlines on his own web site.

To start "correcting" his forecast now, as it would appear, is nonsense and shows the LRF for what it was - a shameless attempt at notoriety..and before I get pilloried for this post, this is my own personal opinion!

If the approach is to issue a headline grabbing forecast and then subtlety change it bit by bit as we get closer then what was the point of the forecast in the first place unless for the reasons above? 

Having reviewed forecasts from James and PWS I give their success no more credence right now than might be achieved through guess work. 

Of course must wait til outcome and for now I'll rate James's forecast on his original and not anything more recent.

To have a winter here anything close to 2010/11 or 2009/10 will be extraordinary as far as I'm concerned. Can't see it happening but then who can....!!!!   ;-)

Joe

You are quite right IMO. I don't 'correct' my forecasts. They are issued and then left for you to read or ignore as you wish. Correcting lrf's makes a mockery out of them. I don't know whether the forecaster you are referring to does or doesn't, as I don't follow his work. My comment is a general one.

I know....!! very ironic!! Especially when we are experiencing temperatures of 25 to 29C into the begining of October. If there was any snow that feel it would not settle as the ground temperatures have been too warm!! That said we did have snow in October 2008.

Also this can't really be an Indian summer as we have not yet experienced a frost. I thought an Indian summer is only classified as one after the first frosts of the season!?

Somewhere in lowland Scotland had an airfrost, and some places in England have had a ground frost, so maybe this is an Indian Summer.

Before anyone gets to carried away dissing Mr Madden. A quick glance at the gfs 12z for oct 14th might be worthwhile.

I have no idea if Mr Maaden will be correct with his forecast and must admit that heavy snow in cotber would be a real turn up for the books.

With regards to long range forecasts in general PWS, Piers, Netweather and and TWO etc. I would like to see them all colated and looked at in March with a critical eye and then if wildly wrong they should be mercilessly torn to shredsin the media just like the Meto where. Then it might stop some of the more extravagant headline seekers ( and we all know who they are) issuing such over the top cobblers in the first place. I,m pretty sure that Netweather and our own Brian would come out of it all in a very good light overall.

Well if the 3 month CFS charts are right we will not have a winter a such, and Spring 2012 would be more like Summer 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Precipitation remains low through-out

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euPrecProbSea.gif

Even the monthly temperature chart is slightly above normal for December, not 1 of the 3 winter months is below average for England and Wales

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

Precipitation amounts on the monthly charts follow the 3 monthly ones in staying normal or below for the 3 winter months

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euPrecProbMon.gif

Could be a cool dry winter for many.

I wouldn't be too upset by that. I have a journey to work on some highish single lane roads that can get difficult in snow. That said, I only failed to arrive once back in December 2009! I get interested in winter around mid-November when the sun is very weak and potential for cold pooling increases markedly. Stuff before that is usually a waste IMO. Things will doubtless change several times on those predictions you've posted

I still think CFS is over-doing the predicted La Nina personally.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/nino34SSTMon.gif 

How much of an effect that has on its winter prediction I'm not sure, but the way it starts really dipping from December 2011 onwards is suspicious, IMO.

Paul Simmons in The Times yesterday also hinted at a milder winter. My initial thoughts will be online mid October.

as we always say when we're searching the nwp for cold, get the block in place and then worry about it finding the right position to bring cold. no blocking = probable mildish winter. a dry signal is a good starting point.

Because, a lot depends on what sort of set-up we would maybe get if high pressure were to be here at times during winter, if it was one like what we've just had then some places would be warm, but of course some areas may not be (This week it was Northern Ireland and Scotland at times which were wet). So we'll just have to wait a bit longer yet before we have good signs as to what winter may deliver.

Even average temperatures for winter are cool so that's why I said cool.

What is significantly different compared with the same time of year in 2008? Northern Hemisphere SSTs for example are very similar to early October 2008, and the current Atlantic pattern is probably more favourable to cold than 2008 was at this stage. We are probably heading for a La Nina winter, but weaker than last. The 08/09 winter was La Nina, but weaker than 07/08.

Can someone enlighten me what these signs for mild are?

I'ed be quite happy with a winter much like 08/09.

I wouldn't.

At present the only signs I can see that point to mild are the CFS charts that have moved from below avearge to above average in the space of a week or so an dthat seems to be driven by the NOAA chrats but not neccessarily offoicila forecast of a strong lan Nina.We have to be careful not to give too much weight to the NOAA just becais ethey rae updaed daily( aBit like You Gov having the most regular but not most accurate political opinion polls.The only other indicator that might point to a mild winter is if we have a dry  autumn which is more likely to be followed by a mild winter.We will not know the answer to that until late November.

I await with grat interest the METO charts for the winter due out in early/Mid October to see if they change from below avearge to above average for the UK.

1. Solar Activity - Yes, its picking up somewhat, but is still below trend for this point in the solar cycle + We have been through a very prolonged minima, which may well still have an effect.

2. October weather patterns - Obviously this one is speculation because we're still so early in the month, but we've certainly got off to a good start in terms of being warm and dry. I don't actually think temperature is that important, it seems to be more about being anticylonic with a positive NAO through the North Atlantic.

3. SST's - As JohnST says, the Atlantic is in a very similar state to this point in 2008. We are still in a warm AMO/Cold PDO phase - Very similar to the 1950's.

4. ENSO - Weak La Nina is statistically the most favourable phase to be in for cold European winters. Moderate and strong get progressively worse for cold winter outcomes. Now, clearly this is a judement call, but I reakon this La Nina will be weaker than last year - Last year we had a moderate La Nina, so this favours a weak La Nina in my view.

5. Northern hemisphere snow cover - We've had a reasonable start to the snow cover season across northern and eastern Arctic Russia. Perhaps not quite as much as we had by this point last year, but not much in it. Obviously we have to see how this develops through the remainder of October.

6. Atlantic hurricanes/TS - Intense hurricane seasons usually seem to coincide with cold North American/European winters (particularly December) This looks as though its going to be at least a top five TS season.

So far things do look encouraging from a cold winter perspective, but we've still got to see how a number of these points work out over the next month or so.

Thanks for that excellent summary, Gavin P. A list of possible influences like that is really useful.

An interesting exercise might be to try joining them up, e.g. is No. 3 (Atlantic SSTs) the result of No. 6 (Tropical Storm strength/numbers)? That way it might be possible to isolate a smaller number of patterns or events which are a really strong signal for a cold winter.

(PS Is it possible to alter Gavin D's user name so I don't have to waste so much time reading all his posts having mistaken the name for Gavin P?)

Some thoughts from Weather Logistics on a dry October increasing the potential for a cold Winter.

http://www.weatherlogistics.com/wordpress/?p=1380

"Since temperature and greenhouse gases are coupled, decreasing the total column water vapour by just 30% can reduce the temperature by 5°C (9°F)."