Hi guys. Well here goes, my bi-annual attempt (guess) at a summer forecast.
Mods, I have also put a copy of this in the Summer Thoughts thread, but I'd appreciate a thread of its own for the time being so people can comment on it. (Nice comments please)!! No need to sticky it, because the forecast will remain in the summer thoughts thread throughout.
First a health warning. My winter 2010-11 LRF was pretty poor (with the exception of the first month, which was pretty decent!)......I compile these forecasts purely for fun, and I enjoy doing them.
This is purely how I anticipate the summer to pan out. I could be right, I could be wrong, I could be somewhere in between.
So here goes!
Moomin75’s 2011 summer forecast
Overview: Cooler than average with considerable rainfall throughout all three months.
Much of this rainfall will be in June and July, with August perhaps slightly drier than average overall.
My methodology is predominantly pattern matching, but I also consider the lessening influence of La Nina in the Pacific and the continuing lack of solar activity.
I also believe that a southerly-tracking jet (as we have seen in recent summers) will play a major role in what will be overall a disappointing summer.
June 2011: I believe June 2011 will begin on an unsettled and cool note with spells of rain across the country. Atlantic troughs will dominate the first half of the month, with temperatures being suppressed nationwide.
The jet will be tracking far to the south, meaning that the Atlantic will continue to dominate our weather, with a cool and showery regime throughout the middle of the month.
Many of these showers will affect the southern half of the UK, while in the north, it will be cool, but brighter and drier here with showers few and far between.
Towards the end of June, I believe the weather will turn very unsettled for the time of year with temperatures continuing to be suppressed to well below average values.
Some very deep areas of low pressure will slam directly into the British Isles during the second half of the month, with strong to gale force winds causing some disruption due to trees being in full leaf.
Overall, I expect June’s CET to be around 1 degree below average, sunshine at values to be at 90% of average in north, but perhaps only 70-80% in the south as unsettled weather dominates.
I anticipate June to be wetter than normal in the south (perhaps as much as 20% wetter than normal), although not as bad as 2007.
In the north, I believe rainfall totals throughout the month will be around average.
July 2011: July will commence on a very unsettled note as the southerly jet continues to allow low pressure systems to hit the UK directly.
Much of the wettest and coolest weather will be in the Midlands and south of the country, while further north, it will be cool, but slightly drier than average.
Deep areas of low pressure will cause perhaps a very wet period in early July, with the potential for flooding in low-lying areas.
While I do not expect the rainfall to be as appreciable as we saw in 2007, I believe that we will see some exceptional rainfall at times, perhaps as much as 200% of the average in the first two weeks.
Further north, blocking over Scandinavia will mean there is more of an influence of high pressure here, and Scotland in particular could be quite pleasant at times with spells of sunshine.
However, it will never be particularly warm, although temperatures in the north will be around average for July.
Further south, with consistent rainfall, I anticipate temperatures to remain very suppressed.
In the second half of July, I expect the jet to push slightly further north, allowing perhaps a ridge from the Azores to bring some much needed relief from the rain in central and southern areas.
However, I believe this ridge will be transitory in nature, with further spells of rain or showers across the south throughout the second half of the month.
Temperatures will recover in the south to average, or perhaps slightly above average in the drier spells, but this will not prevent the monthly CET coming in between 1 and 1.5 degrees below average.
Overall, I expect July’s rainfall to be appreciably above average (150% of average) and the CET (in the south) to be approx 1 degree below average.
Sunshine amounts will also be suppressed in the south, although further north, perhaps average amounts of sunshine and rainfall.
August 2011: I anticipate August to be the best month of the summer nationwide, with some welcome relief in the south from a very wet summer.
With the jet continuing to be further north, this should allow occasional ridging from the Azores High, bringing spells of sunshine and warmer weather at times.
However, I do anticipate further heavy showers at times, and overall, I believe the month will come out around average overall.
Further north, the opposite will happen and the weather will be rather mild and unsettled throughout much of August with spells of rain and temperatures around average overall.
Summary: All in all, I expect a very disappointing summer for those wanting a hot, dry season.
June and July in the south of the UK will be particularly poor, with signs for a very wet July indeed.
August will give us some relief from a disappointing summer, although further north, the weather will go downhill after a promising June and July.
I believe that the drying trend from August will lead us into a very pleasant start to September, giving us a taste of what might have been.
As I always say guys, please don’t shoot the messenger. I compile these forecasts purely for fun, as as Matty H has always said, all LRF’s are a good deal of guess work.
If I’m right, it will be a shame, (hopefully I won’t be), but this is my genuine thoughts of what we will see during summer 2011.
With permission Mods, I would like to verify my forecast on a month-by-month basis throughout the summer.
I'm here to be shot down if it goes bust, or vice versa if it doesn't.
June is going much according to plan (as I said, I base it on pattern matching predominantly).
At the end of August, I would like to break down my LRF into the component months and dissect where I went wrong (or right)....
I am no longer going to discuss it anywhere other than in this thread. 