WeatherOnline don't see summer 2011 coming to much;

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=205&FILE=tma&DAY=20110603 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=206&FILE=sea&DAY=20110603

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I don't think my comments are going to go down too well over Netweather.

Heh. As far as I'm concerned that wet weather over France bit is the most pertinent part, it was remarkable how in 2003 France (and indeed Spain) dried out so much. That means that every single second of sunlight went to heating the air and it was partly why the temperatures reached the silly levels that they did. And, of course, once the winds swung into the south it all wafted our way.

As can be seen from this chart, the European Monsoon is forecast to bring a surfeit of rain for France in the next week or so:

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.png

If anywhere near that much rain falls it'll take a good week after that before it all evaporates and during that time temperatures - even under a large high - won't be anywhere near as high as they'd have been if the ground was baked dry.

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WeatherOnline don't see summer 2011 coming to much;

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=205&FILE=tma&DAY=20110603 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=206&FILE=sea&DAY=20110603

Unsettled until mid June... fair enough.

A lot of fine weather from mid June through to mid July... seems a reasonable prediction. A very mini-1976

Persistent flow Atlantic storms for the second half of June... possible, though perhaps it won't be as extreme as its made out to be. Highs to the south and east, lows to the north and west, with the UK more unsettled than settled, perhaps? Can't really hold any confidence in anything really.

Some fine weather for early August... by this range, its not really worth analysing IMO.

 

Not a bad summer by any means, but nothing exceptional. These more average forecasts are easier to believe than Netweather's 'shades of 1976,' but we can never deny that a 1976 summer will one day be upon us again, so the possibility must continue to be considered even in light of the troubled week ahead and these less inspiring forecasts that are being produced.

 

Final note on that month ahead outlook; it seems like a reasonable forecast, although the prediciton for each week is one ahead of where it should be! (The first paragraph 'forecasts' the week we've just had!)

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Latest from WeatherOnline;

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=monthahead&DAY=20110605

Make the most of late June seems to be the message.

On another matter, not really the place for this, but I can''t think where else to put it;

http://www.weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

http://www.weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-000604.gif

Anybody see the similarity? Could be a wet autumn, though hopefully not as wet as autumn 2000.

 

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http://www.weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

http://www.weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-000604.gif

Anybody see the similarity? Could be a wet autumn, though hopefully not as wet as autumn 2000.

 

Yes, I had already noticed the similarity. Not a good sign. The Atlantic SST anomaly pattern seems to have changed quite quickly over the last month, and no longer resembles the pattern that the netweather forecast was [partly] based on.

Netweather have now conceded that June is likely to be much more average than their original forecast. They appear to be saying that a quicker than expected transition to El Nino type conditions is mainly to blame, but they also mention an unusually rapid replacement of low pressure in the arctic by high pressure.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif

Taking another look at this, it appears that the model expects low pressure to be more often south of the UK than running past the northwest, with high pressure often extending across from the west and east to give the most settled conditions from the midlands north.

This is somewhat at odds with the current GFS and ECM output, which keeps the low pressure belt further north with any high pressure from the west and east tending to influence the south the most.

This was updated last Saturday, during a time of great model confusion regarding the progression through the rest of this month, so that may explain the differences.

 

Looking at July, we can see that the Greenland blocking is gone, with high pressure quite close to our east but also troughing close to our southwest. Given that these are expected anomalies for the whole month, there is room there for some fine, hot weather but also some cooler (if still muggy and  probably warm when nights are factored in) more unsettled interludes. Given the situation with June, I guess this prediction has to be taken with a whole teaspoon of salt

 

August, on the face of it, looks like being the most average month ever seen across the Atlantic

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I think the current pattern is typical of summer although a tad on the cool side given the orientation and direction of the jet. As the AH ridging meanders around to our S, I expect it to become warm at times down here and fairly dry. Very normal IMO  

I think the current pattern is typical of summer although a tad on the cool side given the orientation and direction of the jet. As the AH ridging meanders around to our S, I expect it to become warm at times down here and fairly dry. Very normal IMO  

Yes, from what I can see at the moment we're setting up a very "normal" British summer. Nothing special. Nothing atrocious. Just a nice British summer.

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I think the current pattern is typical of summer although a tad on the cool side given the orientation and direction of the jet. As the AH ridging meanders around to our S, I expect it to become warm at times down here and fairly dry. Very normal IMO  

Yes, from what I can see at the moment we're setting up a very "normal" British summer. Nothing special. Nothing atrocious. Just a nice British summer.

The way it should be for our latitude IMO.

Three fine days and a thunderstorm.

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i can see this summer being a real mixed bag - brief warmer periods interspersed with cooler wetter ones

No heatwave 2003 or 2006 - but no washout 2007 as well

No real heatwaves at all - in fact i think its highly likely that we will not beat 30c anywhere this summer - max temps probably around 25 to 28c for short spells

Warmest and driest in the south and east, cooler and wetter north and west

Any ridging from Azores is likely to be a transient feature

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Seems to be a few "Summer is over" posts creeping into the model thread at the moment. While the model output is very unsettled, c'mon it's only 9 June! For all we know, the end of June could herald a lengthy heatwave...

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Seems to be a few "Summer is over" posts creeping into the model thread at the moment. While the model output is very unsettled, c'mon it's only 9 June! For all we know, the end of June could herald a lengthy heatwave...

There are numerous years in which July and/or August have been the complete opposite of June - indeed it is quite common.

In my opinion the most spectacular switch was in 1991 when a cold wet June was followed by a hot July [a record breaker in parts of North West UK] and a dry August. Another occasion was the wet June of 1997 being followed by one of the hottest Augusts on record.

The summers of 2009 and 2010, June was always the hottest, driest month. The following July's and August's where always overcast and cooler. Maybe there is a pattern afterall?

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The summers of 2009 and 2010, June was always the hottest, driest month. The following July's and August's where always overcast and cooler. Maybe there is a pattern afterall?

Think you may have your years wrong there!! its only 2011 now

The summers of 2009 and 2010, June was always the hottest, driest month. The following July's and August's where always overcast and cooler. Maybe there is a pattern afterall?

Think you may have your years wrong there!! its only 2011 now

Eh?

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The summers of 2009 and 2010, June was always the hottest, driest month. The following July's and August's where always overcast and cooler. Maybe there is a pattern afterall?

Think you may have your years wrong there!! its only 2011 now

its a little ambiguas sorry read it wrong........

Eh?

The summers of 2009 and 2010, June was always the hottest, driest month. The following July's and August's where always overcast and cooler. Maybe there is a pattern afterall?

Yes. This is quite a common pattern too. Good June followed by 2 months of zonal dross. 1992, 1988, 1970 also good examples of this.

Sorry sunnyramsgate, I have no idea what you're talking about.

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Sorry sunnyramsgate, I have no idea what you're talking about.

sorry LL lost the plot