Winter is a distant memory, as far away as it can possibly be

As we head through Spring people's thoughts will turn to summer. So what do we think we might encounter?...

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One thing I think is that it will be incredibly dry, more so than last year. I think August will be the golden month of the Summer, the opposite to last year. Average temperature wise until then. 🙂

 

Fun forecast based on instincts and some common sense:

June starts unsettled, with supressed daytime temperatures but warm nights, if not remarkably so. Conditions improve by mid month, with high pressure tending to ridge in from the west or southwest. By the end of the month, we have generally fine conditions with high pressure more or less over the UK.

July begins fine and dry, warm to very warm and hot in places as well. Then we see our high pressure declining to the east, allowing in thundery troughs to bother/excite us for the middle part of the month. As we go into the final week or so, high pressure returns, possibly arriving from the east and giving a hot easterly spell.

August is then fine and settled for a good part of the month, as this new high drifts south to settle over the UK, where it hangs around for a considerable amount of time. Possibly this sinks south into Europe towards the end of the month, allowing the Atlantic and any ex-tropical systems to impact the UK.

 

There you have it. This seems like a decent summer that I've envisioned, so fingers crossed eh

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Average summer some heat, some good storms mixed out by periods of cool and unsettled weather.

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It will be very wet and dull and cold with drizzle. (Sorry, guys)

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One thing I think is that it will be incredibly dry :)

That is quite a bold and unusual call this far in advance. What factors do you think are currently pointing in that direction?

PWS apparently in several papers this morning predicting a wash-out June, but a nice August.

Overall though the forecast is for summer 2011 to be worse than the previous two. 

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The patterns this year are very different to the last few, therefore I would be suprised if this summer was similar in its nature. It could be wet again ('again' being excluding last year for the far south), but in a different way i.e. through different common patterns of weather.

One possible wetter than average scenario sees active thundery events and the like often moving in from Europe or the SW, under warm conditions. Between these would be finer periods allowing for some hot weather, especially later in the summer. Three fine days and a thunderstorm (or several) could be the rule of the summer.

With that kind of setup, a warmer than average summer would be likely. Just how much of that would be very warm/hot days is uncertain. Under such a regime, there is a high chance of scoring a run of very hot days at some point during the summer.

Another wet scenario sees a persistent zonal onslaught for substantial periods of time, displaced south of normal. This usually requires some form of northern blocking in the Atlantic, however, which would leave us in a similar situation to the past few years, which as I said I think is less likely than, say, the first scenario I've spoken of.

I will raise my hands and admit to there being a strong element of hopecasting in my fun forecast, but then, how else could it be fun?

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Ooooh I can't wait. Yeh right, 'august to be a scorcher', heard the exact quote last year from them fools.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1370518/Weather-forecasters-predict-heavy-rain-thunderstorms-flash-flooding-June.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

Summer not as good as last year or the year before? Well if what they are predicting this year, the summer will be similar for crying out loud.

There always good to laugh at i suppose.

 

I think they list to dream cast, just like with the last winter forecast, I don't think anyone saw december to be as severe as it was.

The law of averages does suggest we must be due a good August. I suppose Aug 2009 wasn't too bad but it followed a washout July. It's been a while since we had a summer with a poor June and better July/August (the last really clear-cut example is 1997), so that's my wholly unscientific prediction.

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Initial indications are for a deteriorating summer IMO

Initial indications are for a deteriorating summer IMO

Does 'deteriorating' mean reasonable June followed by wet zonal rubbish - ie similar to 2009 ?

Initial indications are for a deteriorating summer IMO

Does 'deteriorating' mean reasonable June followed by wet zonal rubbish - ie similar to 2009 ?

Pretty much. No specific methodology in there although I get a feel for these things after being around a long time! July will be the key to this summer. Could go either way but I'm concerned that whilst it may be rather warm, it won't be settled

One thing I think is that it will be incredibly dry :)

That is quite a bold and unusual call this far in advance. What factors do you think are currently pointing in that direction?

I can only really go by my instincts and recent months where high pressure has been near by for a lot of the time. Not predicting heat, just dry and probably meaning a fair bit of sunny weather. Though these are just my early thoughts, I don't believe this to neccessarily come off, just like I said really lol

Ooooh I can't wait. Yeh right, 'august to be a scorcher', heard the exact quote last year from them fools.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1370518/Weather-forecasters-predict-heavy-rain-thunderstorms-flash-flooding-June.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

Summer not as good as last year or the year before? Well if what they are predicting this year, the summer will be similar for crying out loud.

There always good to laugh at i suppose.

 

I think they list to dream cast, just like with the last winter forecast, I don't think anyone saw december to be as severe as it was.

I agree. 100%. I'll take PWS long-range forecasts with a pinch of salt.

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june - cool and wet

july - warmer and drier but still unsettled

August - mini heatwave to mid month, then turning cooler and unsettled

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Here's what I'm beginning to think
June - average temperature wise, but dry
July - average rainfall wise, but warm
August - Hot, sunny and dry potentially

My thoughts for Summer 2011 -

June-

I think June will be settled initially with some coolish nights for the time of year but soon going down hill towards the June Monsoon which will last a good week or two.

After that rather unsettled showery weather.

I don't think it will be a cold month however.

July -

An unsettled changeable start, rather westerly and mobile in nature with rain fronts rapidly clearing away and long spells of sunshine in between.

Late July is possibly the best chance for a real hot dry period, potential here for high pressure to ridge strongly in and for front to be kept at bay. Possibly temps of 33c - 34c in the South of England for a SHORT period no record breaking temps or temps this high for a long period.

Thunderstorms moving in by the end of the month.

August -

Unsettled muggy start, few thunderstorms, temps pegged back to 25c - 27c, after the first week or so much fresher weather moving in from the Atlantic, temps back to 18c - 22c.

Rest of August pretty non decript I feel, temps high teens low 20's, showers at times.

 

Those I my first thoughts anyway, which will likely change.

Based on a hunch I think we could be about to almost copy 2006

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Based on a hunch I think we could be about to almost copy 2006

Let's face it, it wouldn't too bad if we did eh?