I still think we're in for a wet summer but warm overall.

Indeed, my thoughts as well. Deterioration being the order of the day and the relative warmth may be more to do with warmer nights than extreme daytime heat

Any more cheerful thoughts Dave?

I suppose that warm and wet is better than cold and wet.   If it rains at night maybe it's OK...

As they say in M.O....."JFF"

Hi,

Haven't finished yet the LFR for Summer, but, I must say at this point it could well be different from past year, could be Warm for SW but also with lot of thundery activity or extratropical flus carring moister, but is  to soon.

This could mean some HP ridging over NW France or even futher north, allowing S and E fluxs

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i have a gut feeling that we will get a cool wet spell in early summer

this current spell reminds me of Spring 2007 which had very anticyclonic and at times warm weather - we all know what happpened in june and july that year

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I'd settle for a reasonable summer with a few hot days, something similar to 2001 or 2005.

Every single Summer in the UK history regardless has seen at least a couple of warm, dry and sunny days per month. Let's face it, we will see Summer at SOME point however wet the overall Summer is :-)
(But still a hot and sunny Summer would be ideal 😉 )

Like last year we had a hot May/June, and a pants July/August? That isn't what I call summer!

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Every single Summer in the UK history regardless has seen at least a couple of warm, dry and sunny days per month. 

I think your comment might be influenced by your location. The comment is quite wrong as far as the NW quadrant of the UK is concerned. In July 1988 for example there was a complete absence of anticyclones over the UK and it rained at Carlisle on 29 days that month [souce = Weather Log]. July 1985, August 1992, and August 2008 are some other tedious months. Living through these months in NW England [Scotland was even worse] was torture.

Like last year we had a hot May/June, and a pants July/August? That isn't what I call summer!

I reckon we might well see the absolute reverse this late spring/summer.

I envision headlines declaring 'yet another washout summer' during June, only for July and August to be the best we've seen since 2006 and 2003 respectively! I wouldn't count on them being quite that good, of course

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There is so much similarity to 2003 at the moment, its incredible.

If the weather breaks down around mid month, then that will be yet another step along the 2003 course.

 

As part of my fun forecast, I envisage some very decent plumes of hot air this summer. Late May through June, these may tend to miss us to the east, with troughs bothering the UK quite often and high pressure only transitionally influental from the SW. Some thundery action would be sure to arise at times

Its during July and August that we may score some direct hits under high pressure tending to hang out further east again such as we have now, and I'm actually thinking that the all time record high temperature could be challenged at least once. The setup of yesterday and today (with the higher uppers that would result) would be enough to produce widespread mid 30's temperatures in July, I would have thought...?

 

One should bear in mind that, theoretically, a run of half a dozen months with predominantly warm and fine weather is a possible occurance. I currently don't believe this very likely, and continue to forsee a 2003-style breakdown this month, with less settled conditions frequent during May and at least the first half of June, before a recovery which sets up for some substantial heatwaves thereafter 

At the very least its great fun for many of us to imagine my forecast verifying, regardless of what actually unfolds

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 I'm actually thinking that the all time record high temperature could be challenged at least once.

That would be amazing, although breaking 40C would be far more interesting.

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There is so much similarity to 2003 at the moment, its incredible.

If the weather breaks down around mid month, then that will be yet another step along the 2003 course.

 

As part of my fun forecast, I envisage some very decent plumes of hot air this summer. Late May through June, these may tend to miss us to the east, with troughs bothering the UK quite often and high pressure only transitionally influental from the SW. Some thundery action would be sure to arise at times

Its during July and August that we may score some direct hits under high pressure tending to hang out further east again such as we have now, and I'm actually thinking that the all time record high temperature could be challenged at least once. The setup of yesterday and today (with the higher uppers that would result) would be enough to produce widespread mid 30's temperatures in July, I would have thought...?

 

One should bear in mind that, theoretically, a run of half a dozen months with predominantly warm and fine weather is a possible occurance. I currently don't believe this very likely, and continue to forsee a 2003-style breakdown this month, with less settled conditions frequent during May and at least the first half of June, before a recovery which sets up for some substantial heatwaves thereafter 

At the very least its great fun for many of us to imagine my forecast verifying, regardless of what actually unfolds

Let's hope this turns out to be true

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif

Posted in the Spring discussion thread, and deserving of a mention here too.

My interpretation is thus:

May has northern blocking to our NW big time, and so is potentially a rather poor month for the UK, though it could end up being close to average. It would be at times wet and not all that warm either, but otherwise, with pressure anomalies are only shown to be neutral, so some nicer weather should be found.

June sees that northern blocking weakening, but hanging on, leading to another month whereby imported warmth is hard to come by. Some poor spells of weather to be dealt with, but also some reasonable length finer spells with some home grown warmth being experienced.

Come July, the northern blocking has gone, and the signals are weak, but then the synoptics do tend to be less amplified by this point in the summer. The slight postive anomaly over the UK gives hope for some reasonably lengthy spells of fine weather, however with a slight anomaly near Iceland, the suggestion is that high pressure will tend to be just west or northwest of the UK, meaning that continental imports contine to prove illusive, although there's certainly a good chance of seeing one or two.

August is looking like a classic displacement of an active jet stream north, potentially giving us a very warm month with plenty of tropical maritime airflows and some plumes of hot air from the continent also more likely to find the UK.

 

I'm pleased to see these charts illustrating a scenario that is quite similar to my fun forecast, if not quite as exciting

Its actually a rather good long range outlook, compared to the horrors of some years past!

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Glacier Point on Netweather has given indications that he expects a rather good June, as mid latitude highs continue to dominate our weather, having been often west of the UK during May and I guess cropping up further east again for June:

"Current thinking would be for May to be cooler with pressure high in the mid Atlantic, June to be nice. Not sure about the rest just yet and still working on that one although on balance we should be looking at a neutral / negative NAO and positive AO type set up with a mid latitude high pressure cell and at times the Azores ridge linking up."

For the Azores cell to be linking up, I guess the high pressure cell should tend to be at around the longitude of the UK, or east of that, else we'd see the mid latitude high resulting in no Azores high whatsoever. I'd ask GP about this myself, were it not for my loyalty to TWO (I'm not a member of Netweather!)

 

I've been envisioning a rather wet June, but have become less sure of that having seen the recent CFS output and now reading this from GP; CFS supports a month close to average, and GP talks of one I guess better than average, although in theory average can be 'nice' too.

Even regarding May, there are questions rising regarding how far to our north/northwest high pressure decides to dominate (assuming that it does move there, as suggested by CFS, a fair amount of the recent medium range model output, and a number of forecasters/forum members across the web); it may well be that high pressure is close enough to the UK to keep rainfall to a minimum. Whatever happens, I anticipate a low incident of very warm to hot weather next month, as continental imports prove hard to come by.

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Just checked out the Netweather long range update:

http://www.netweather.tv/images/lrf/april/mayrain.png

http://www.netweather.tv/images/lrf/april/junerain.png

http://www.netweather.tv/images/lrf/april/julyrain.png

A wet May is signalled away from the far north (northern blocking again implied)

This is then followed by a drier than average June for much of the UK, with the drier than average conditions amplifying for the south in July, whilst the north turns wetter. To me this suggests UK highs dominating in June followed by Euro high dominance during July.

http://www.netweather.tv/images/lrf/april/maytemp.png

http://www.netweather.tv/images/lrf/april/junetemp.png

http://www.netweather.tv/images/lrf/april/julytemp.png

May manages above average temperatures despite the rain and northern blocking. This would be due to mild nights, most likely.

June and July are warmer than average. Whilst the anomalies are not large, at this range anything beyond a half degree departure is rarely predicted, due to the huge array of variations on the theme that can potentially evolve. I imagine that what is shown is a form of average of the outcomes, indicating a reasonably good chance that it will be warmer than average, with a fair chance of it being near a degree or so above the long term mean.

 

To wrap things up, the prospects for a decent opening two months of summer this year are looking really rather good for England and Wales at least , unlike those facing Carlo Ancelloti this evening

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I get the feeling we've swung from one extreme (cold) to another (heat) and as such I'd not rule out one of the hottest/driest summers on record.

Could see us challenging 2006/2003/1995/1976.

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I get the feeling we've swung from one extreme (cold) to another (heat) and as such I'd not rule out one of the hottest/driest summers on record.

Could see us challenging 2006/2003/1995/1976.

That would be a tall order but I hope not for the sake of the country.

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I dont see a hot summer being any more problematic than a very cold winter. I admit there comes a time now again when water supplies have to be conserved during drought conditions but in my lifetime i cant remember ever having widespread drought restrictions imposed. (Not during 2003 or 2006 thats for certain, but possibly 1995) Youre certainly not going to have pipes bursting and homes being without fresh water for days like what happened in Northern Ireland in December. At least the countrys transport infrastructure still functions during hot weather, even though its not pleasant travelling on public transport.

The Bristish tourist industry has suffered a lot in recent summers due to the unreliable weather so a hot dry summer could be just what the doctor ordered. However i'd much rather it be a hot summer with slightly below average rainfall, and not competely bone dry.

I get the feeling we've swung from one extreme (cold) to another (heat) and as such I'd not rule out one of the hottest/driest summers on record.

Could see us challenging 2006/2003/1995/1976.

I'm surprised that there is so much optimism at present, given that there appears to me to be as much similarity with 2007 at present as some of the hot years being mentioned, and some factors are similar to 2008.

I get the feeling we've swung from one extreme (cold) to another (heat) and as such I'd not rule out one of the hottest/driest summers on record.

Could see us challenging 2006/2003/1995/1976.

I'm surprised that there is so much optimism at present, given that there appears to me to be as much similarity with 2007 at present as some of the hot years being mentioned, and some factors are similar to 2008.

2007 was really tansitioning from El Nino to La Nina. There is a specific issue with summers that transition to La Nina that means most of the time they are a write off.

These summers that occur during a mature La Nina or straight after a La Nina can go either way. Sometimes they can be a write off, 1956, 2008, for example. But you just need to look at the summers of 1955, 1975, 1976 and to some extent 1999, to see that you can actually get a surprisingly good outcome during or at the end of a mature La Nina.

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I get the feeling we've swung from one extreme (cold) to another (heat) and as such I'd not rule out one of the hottest/driest summers on record.

Could see us challenging 2006/2003/1995/1976.

 

That would be absolutly gob smacking IMO, after recent years. I know people are not a fan of the cfs model, but it is striking to see, how wonderful July is looking after the last 4 Julys, High pressure stretching, from the azores and over to the europe, no positive colours around greenland, perfect set up! June, is starting to improve, with simillar lookign pattern to what is being shown for the second half of april, with the negative anomaly to the west of us and high pressure over the uk and europe and stretching to Greenland, so potential there.

CFS handled the record breaking December and even the following Jan and Feb, which some believe to think it would be wrong.