We will get a prolonged very wet spell at some point, but theres nothing to say it has be this side autumn.

 

End of August 76 when the drought finally broke it rained and it rained and it didn't seem to stop raining for which felt like a lifetime

So yes Gavin, it wouldn't surprise me... 

 

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@stodge I doubt water will be rationed.. the UK isn't Africa you know?

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I dont post much but always intrested in whats going on.

So my prediction is dry warm, not hot as a continental feed will keep temps down in the east.

Not saying that we wont get any hot weather over the summer period at times but predominatley dry.

 

my prediction is dry warm, not hot 

Maybe something similar to 1984 or 1996 if you are correct.

I would like another 1984, but I believe a less extreme version of 2007 is more likely - will post reasons in due course. 

Gotta feeling its gonna be a cracker ive got no scientific reasons just a hunch...we are over due thats for sure.

What I've been seing on the long range CFS model output suggests that we will be treading a fine line this summer, especially earlier on, in that it looks very wet across central-western Europe, however high pressure looks to be building down from the north just about enough to keep the far NW of Europe drier, with the UK potentially being near average or even drier than average.

This coming May looks like a trial run for the summer to me; high pressure to our north, troughing to our south, with the south at risk of wet weather but quite capable of escaping mostly dry during the next fortnight (contrast the 12z runs of ECM and GFS today, if they're still available as you read this).

I reckon a few dismal spells of weather are fairly likely, but they might be fairly short lived, with reasonable conditions inbetween. Of course, easterlies can be hot in the summer, so thats something to watch, what with the northern blocking shown to be extending well to our east.

 

This is all assuming that the CFS model is looking down the right lines. It doesn't have to be that way, as we all know very well. My personal instincts support its output for the most part at the moment, hence I'm considering it more extensively than in past years.

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[I worry about a prolonged hot spell in London, where I reside. It's bad enough to have to use the mobile sauna fully clothed but with bad air quality and high temperatures, people are going to really suffer and I don't rule out deaths among the elderly.

That may be alarmist but I hope the authorities are getting prepared and for the possibility of water rationing in a city of eight million people.

I really hope it doesn't happen and I also hope that IF it does, people on here aren't going to revel in it - ten days of temps of 35c or higher won't be funny at all.]

I also worry about a prolonged hot spell and a summer similar to 1976. I really hope it doesn`t happen, but if it does, some people on here will definately revel in it.

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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif

Updated with new initial conditions up to yesterday. Here is my interpretation:

Little change overall. June still looks to be very similar to May, which given what the models have been showing of late indicates a bit of a difficult start to the summer, one which might deliver some decent heat and fine weather but also threatens to bring some rather dissapointing spells of weather too at least across England and Wales. On balance, however, the slight positive pressure anomaly suggests that settled weather may be more frequent and longer lasting, even in the south.

July is rather vague, with a slight signal for the northern blocking of May to remain. Perhaps what happens is that the pressure patterns become very slack, with weak troughs drifting across NW Europe and weak high pressure tending to lie across the north of the UK. The UK itself does have a slight high pressure anomaly again, indicating more in the way of settled conditions over unsettled. With the only negative anomaly being hundreds of miles away in the Atlantic, a dry month appears likely even accounting for some thundery imports, which do feature in an average pressure month across Northwest Europe.

August is even more vague than July, with most places neutral except for a high pressure anomaly over the north of the UK that extends east into the continent and far south enough to bring air from near the eastern Med. A month of frequent hot easterly type weather is my conclusion.

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http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=206&DAY=20110501

The forecast opens with a heading of 'showery mid-June' but follows this with a sub heading of 'lots of dry weather.'

A hot opening to June, persisting to mid month before unsettled conditions edge in from the northwest, although the pattern is very slack (referred to as 'weak' in the forecast). The second half of the month sounds very much like a NW Europe high with Atlantic storms brushing past the NW of the UK. Generally fine and warm in the south, less so in the north, reasonable in between. The final days then see high pressure building north, extending the fine weather and making it hot in the south,

July begins fine and hot, but also humid, meaning some thundery showers may develop. More unsettled second week, with a stalled trough, this then absorbed by Atlantic lows which dominate until the final week, during which the Euro high returns from the south.

 

This is a decent forecast for those wanting a decent amount of dry and fine weather. Not great prospects for those needing rain (most of us!) especially seeing as May has the potential to also be quite dry. The south and more especially southeast could be seeing only small amounts of rain even during the majority of the unsettled spells.

My advice would be to make the most of the fine weather if it does turn out like this, after all you can't change whether its dry or not just by being dispondant at the lack of rain!

 

The forecast differs somewhat from what the CFS model has been suggesting to me, so that's interesting.

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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif

Continuing to monitor this.

May still has positive anomalies extending down into NW UK, some reason then to believe that if it turns unsettled for the middle of the month, it may not stay that way for all that long.

The June anomaly has become more interesting now; focal points developed just atop Scotland and extending slightly east, as well as just off the coast of Newfoundland. The negative anomaly is near the Azores. This looks like a dry month for the north and central parts, less so in the south where continental imports may crop up from time to time. Certainly the pattern looks more conducive to fine and in particular hot weather than that for the month we're now in.

July sees that signal for northern blocking, but its weak. No sign yet as to where exactly the blocks will set up shop. As it looks right now, it could be either a fine month indeed or a total washout.

August... well, what can I say? Inconclusive!

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If the weather continues in it's stuck in a rut mode I would say that this summer has a fair chance of being warm and humid with the chance of thundery outbreaks much greater than in recent summers with high pressure stuck at northern latitudes i.e Scandinavia for long periods of time with lows to the south and southwest.

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I have copied part of a post in Model Output by Tim S replying to Moomin75:
'Summer speculation time from me (apologies). I was about to post showing how different the North Atlantic SST profile was in 2007 compared with now, but actually they're frighteningly similar.

2011:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.go...1/anomnight.5.2.2011.gif 
2007:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.go...7/anomnight.5.3.2007.gif  '

My view - I agree with Moomin75 about some similarities with 2007. I also see some similarities with 2008 - both Atlantic SSTs and current ENSO trend. We also have atmosphere generally behaving in a Nina state and a low activity sunspot cycle. None of this is good news for the summer IMO as far as a probabilistic forecast is concerned. The summer is unlikely to be as bad as 2007 [or 2008, which was worse than 2007 in my area] partly for reason given by Gavin P - ie 2007 was a transition from Nino to Nina. Any comments?

I have copied part of a post in Model Output by Tim S replying to Moomin75:
'Summer speculation time from me (apologies). I was about to post showing how different the North Atlantic SST profile was in 2007 compared with now, but actually they're frighteningly similar.

2011:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.go...1/anomnight.5.2.2011.gif
2007:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.go...7/anomnight.5.3.2007.gif '

My view - I agree with Moomin75 about some similarities with 2007. I also see some similarities with 2008 - both Atlantic SSTs and current ENSO trend. We also have atmosphere generally behaving in a Nina state and a low activity sunspot cycle. None of this is good news for the summer IMO as far as a probabilistic forecast is concerned. The summer is unlikely to be as bad as 2007 [or 2008, which was worse than 2007 in my area] partly for reason given by Gavin P - ie 2007 was a transition from Nino to Nina. Any comments?

They may have similarities but will the outcome be the same??? This is a fascinating subject but I am yet to be convinced.

I have copied part of a post in Model Output by Tim S replying to Moomin75:
'Summer speculation time from me (apologies). I was about to post showing how different the North Atlantic SST profile was in 2007 compared with now, but actually they're frighteningly similar.

2011:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.go...1/anomnight.5.2.2011.gif
2007:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.go...7/anomnight.5.3.2007.gif '

My view - I agree with Moomin75 about some similarities with 2007. I also see some similarities with 2008 - both Atlantic SSTs and current ENSO trend. We also have atmosphere generally behaving in a Nina state and a low activity sunspot cycle. None of this is good news for the summer IMO as far as a probabilistic forecast is concerned. The summer is unlikely to be as bad as 2007 [or 2008, which was worse than 2007 in my area] partly for reason given by Gavin P - ie 2007 was a transition from Nino to Nina. Any comments?

I can certainly see where your coming from.

Thing is, we know that these summers that coincide with a fading La Nina CAN deliver - 1976 and 1989 were both in such scenarios. However, we also know these summers can also be poor - 1950, 1956 and 2008 tell us this.  I'm still on the fence with this summer, but what I will say is that I don't see and half way houses with this summer - Either it will be excellent or it will be terrible.

One thing to keep in mind is that April was every bit as extreme as December - Joe B'astardi had a good way of describing Decembers pattern and the pattern for the rest of the winter - Like stretching an elastic band so far that in the end it can only swing the other way - And in a lot of ways April has again stretched the elastic band to such an extreme that maybe the only thing the atmosphere can do is swing the other way.

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I have copied part of a post in Model Output by Tim S replying to Moomin75:
'Summer speculation time from me (apologies). I was about to post showing how different the North Atlantic SST profile was in 2007 compared with now, but actually they're frighteningly similar.

2011:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.go...1/anomnight.5.2.2011.gif
2007:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.go...7/anomnight.5.3.2007.gif '

My view - I agree with Moomin75 about some similarities with 2007. I also see some similarities with 2008 - both Atlantic SSTs and current ENSO trend. We also have atmosphere generally behaving in a Nina state and a low activity sunspot cycle. None of this is good news for the summer IMO as far as a probabilistic forecast is concerned. The summer is unlikely to be as bad as 2007 [or 2008, which was worse than 2007 in my area] partly for reason given by Gavin P - ie 2007 was a transition from Nino to Nina. Any comments?

I can certainly see where your coming from.

Thing is, we know that these summers that coincide with a fading La Nina CAN deliver - 1976 and 1989 were both in such scenarios. However, we also know these summers can also be poor - 1950, 1956 and 2008 tell us this.  I'm still on the fence with this summer, but what I will say is that I don't see and half way houses with this summer - Either it will be excellent or it will be terrible.

One thing to keep in mind is that April was every bit as extreme as December - Joe B'astardi had a good way of describing Decembers pattern and the pattern for the rest of the winter - Like stretching an elastic band so far that in the end it can only swing the other way - And in a lot of ways April has again stretched the elastic band to such an extreme that maybe the only thing the atmosphere can do is swing the other way.

joe must have reinforced elastic bands as well...lol

im gonna do a daily express and quote you Gavin..."I Dont see any half way houses with this summer it will be excellent...;))

The contrast between the very cold December and very warm April is completely unprecedented in UK temperature records. Comparing to 1971-2000 averages, December 2010 was 5.8C below average and April 2011 3.7C above average.

How, if at all, these incredible swings in temperature will affect this summer is a complete mystery to me. I don't really subscribe to any elastic band type theory though.

Looking back at the records since 1900 I can only find three vaguely similar examples of a very cold late autumn / winter month being followed by a very warm month within a space of less than 6 months (a swing of at least 7C compared to the mean).

Nov 1915 was 4.1C below average. Jan 1916 was 3.3C above average. Feb to May 1916 averaged 0.7C below normal. Feb to Dec 1916 averaged 0.9C below normal.

Jan 1940 was 5.6C below average. June 1940 was 2.3C above average. Jul to Oct 1940 were all more than 0.5C below average. The four months averaged 0.9C below normal. Jul 1940 to May 1941 averaged 1.3C below normal.

Feb 1947 was 6.1C below average. May 1947 was 2.2C above average. Jun to Sep 1947 were all at least 0.5C above average and most well above average. The four months averaged 1.4C above normal. Jun 1947 to Apr 1948 averaged 1.0C above normal.

Another example which comes close is Jan 1945 at 3.8C below normal and Feb 1945 at 2.9C above normal. Mar to Jun 1945 averaged 1.3C above normal.

So one thing that history does suggest is that after such wild swings it is unlikely that temperatures will settle down to something close to average. So I would tend to agree with Gavin on this point. Summer 2011 is likely to be either very good or shocking. It is anyone's guess which at this point.

It is worth noting that in the past four years temperatures between Jun and Oct have generally been fairly close to average and never more than 1.3C from the average. In 2007 the overall temperature in those 5 months was 0.1C below average, in 2008 0.3C below average, in 2009 0.5C above average and in 2010 0.2C above average. I think we could well see a somewhat larger deviation (either higher or lower) this year.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif

Once more I ponder over this prediction.

The question that springs to mind here is, how can there be such a strong anomaly to our east and northeast this month unless we see a return of strong high pressure there for the final week of May? Definately something to watch out for.

Looking on to June, and at first glance one might find the predicted pattern worrying. But look closer, and you can see that a postive anomaly covers nearly all of the UK. With the anomalies stretching east and west, I can imagine a high frequency of blocking highs that are at the northern range of what might be considered 'mid-latitude'. Hence it could be a very dry month for most of us, even accounting for the odd thundery low threat into the south, for example.

Into July, the prospects are less promising. Its essentially the same pattern as shown for June, but a little further north. Potentially July would be rather like this month is unfolding synoptically, except for the blocking highs being weaker as you'd expect in high summer.

That will do; August remains far too vauge to really bother analysing. Note the very wet signal for October, I only mention it because I have a hunch that we might see a wetter than average Autumn this year.

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Quickfire impressions on the long range CFS development:

June has the potential to be a hot month, what with the negative anomaly well west of the UK but close enough against a postive anomaly over the UK to suggest plenty of southerly winds.

July is a case of 'who knows?' The only persistent signal is for higher than usual pressure in the high latitude Arctic regions.

August looks very unsettled at the moment. The odd thing about that month's pattern is that there are periodic areas of negative pressure anomaly, but no areas of positive anomaly in between to suggest the blocking highs that would keep troughs stalled as they would need to be to produce the negative anomalies. Or is there something I'm missing?

 

So, it could be another case of a summer that starts very decent and then gradually becomes less awesome, moving through average and finishing poor. There's still plenty of time for months beyond June to change substantially, however.

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Quickfire impressions on the long range CFS development:

June has the potential to be a hot month, what with the negative anomaly well west of the UK but close enough against a postive anomaly over the UK to suggest plenty of southerly winds.

July is a case of 'who knows?' The only persistent signal is for higher than usual pressure in the high latitude Arctic regions.

August looks very unsettled at the moment. The odd thing about that month's pattern is that there are periodic areas of negative pressure anomaly, but no areas of positive anomaly in between to suggest the blocking highs that would keep troughs stalled as they would need to be to produce the negative anomalies. Or is there something I'm missing?

 

So, it could be another case of a summer that starts very decent and then gradually becomes less awesome, moving through average and finishing poor. There's still plenty of time for months beyond June to change substantially, however.

August is always un-settled, will the sun ever shine on my birthday? I seriously do not remember the last time it was sunny on my birthday..

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One possibility for this summer that I'd not rule out, particularly with a cold anomaly developing in the mid Atlantic, is for high pressure to park itself to the west of the British Isles, keeping us dry, but with cool northerly flows for much of the time.

A cool/dry summer combination is very rare - 1972 and 1993 are the only recentish examples I can find.

IOD model updated for May;

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/ (click the seasonal predictions link in the side bar)

Still going for a warm and dry summer. Interestingly winter looks very, very cold for nearly all of Europe.

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