WO going for an unsettled June;

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=monthahead&DAY=20110514

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Thanks Matt.  Seems a good call at the moment.

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Hi Gavin, think it is you that sometimes posts Jamstec charts - have you the link please - the new May run is out. JB is discussing that model and has some info on their winter prognosis and summer SST ones; I would be interested in the summer T2m as other sources are trending cool in their latest output.

http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/ 

Its worth noting that we hare still in the solar minimum hence the blocking over the last few years both summer and winter.

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Hi Gavin, think it is you that sometimes posts Jamstec charts - have you the link please - the new May run is out. JB is discussing that model and has some info on their winter prognosis and summer SST ones; I would be interested in the summer T2m as other sources are trending cool in their latest output.

http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/

I already posted it up thread.

Here it is again;

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/

(click the seasonal predictions link in the side bar)

Its worth noting that we hare still in the solar minimum hence the blocking over the last few years both summer and winter.

Actually we're well into cycle 24 and well on our way up to solar maximum - The fact that activity is still so subdued is a very telling indication of how weak cycle 24 is going to be, IMO.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_24

We're just two years away from solar maximum now, amazingly.

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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif 


back to the drawing board of northern blocking from Autumn onwards, perfect timing and i particularly like the anomalies for november, with the blues in the azores and below the uk, the october one is very similar to December 2010, but not as strong 

 

Sorry a bit off topic, but did not want to make a thread on this

Thanks Matt.  Seems a good call at the moment.

Indeed, thanks Matt and in line with my thoughts from earlier which haven't altered one bit!

This looks rather nice;

http://retro.met.no/sesongvarsler/index.html

ECM goes for a warm summer.

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Its worth noting that we hare still in the solar minimum hence the blocking over the last few years both summer and winter.

Actually we're well into cycle 24 and well on our way up to solar maximum - The fact that activity is still so subdued is a very telling indication of how weak cycle 24 is going to be, IMO.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_24

We're just two years away from solar maximum now, amazingly.

Cycle 24 is very weak indeed so much for the solar max getting started.

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NetWeather's summer forecast is due to be issued today...

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NetWeather's summer forecast is due to be issued today...

Not sure if I should post a link to it but................

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=summer-forecast;sess=

NetWeather's summer forecast is due to be issued today...

Not sure if I should post a link to it but................

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=summer-forecast;sess=

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Hardly a surprise given what Stuart has been saying in recent weeks and months.

Looks like a repeat of 1976/1995 if that forecast is right. 

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The June forecasts from weatheronline and netweather appear to be quite opposite. I like it when a long range forecast is accompanied by some reasoned explanation - as per the netweather forecast. The netweather forecast for the last winter was very good. They predicted the cold December- average January - milder February scenario.
I wonder whether the solar aspect briefly referred to in the netweather summer forecast could be their downfall? They make reference to solar activity increasing but the fact is that we remain in a very low activity cycle. The last time we started to come out of a similarly low activity cycle we had a string of wet summers 1915-1918. Personally I think rainfall will be higher than the netweather forecast suggests, and that for part of the summer we will be sat under near stationary low pressure 2007 style. I should emphasize that I am not dismissing the netweather forecast, and I respect the author and think most of the reasoning is sound.

I think netweather have given a good forecast. Seeing the headline 'Summer 2011 hot and dry' really excites me, as netweather (along with others) seem to be quite reliable, more so in the long range forecasts oddly enough . . .

If we are to arrive at the sort of pattern predicted by Netweather for June, from where we are by this weekend, the Azores high needs to retreat west, allowing troughing to settle over the Azores. In response to this, high pressure may then build just east or northeast of the UK.

If that happens, far western Russia will probably be often fine, with heat building as it does under stagnant conditions, but its unlikely to be as hot as last year. More eastern parts of Central Russia, on the other hand, could well swelter, as would the UK. Scandi will only become hot if the high pressure is particularly expansive.

The ECM 12z run offers some form of visual representation of what I've just described. A trough really needs to make its way toward the Scandi/Russian border in order to anchor high pressure close to our east or northeast, once this happens we are more or less set for some decent summer weather. Here's hoping!

 

Edit note: I've taken Gavin's words into consideration and modified my post slightly to reflect his points, its all theoretical after all!

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My memory from 1995 is that much of central Europe and western Russia actually had a very unsettled summer as the trough dipped down into the continent.

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My memory from 1995 is that much of central Europe and western Russia actually had a very unsettled summer as the trough dipped down into the continent.

Yes I remember the Germans decided to take holidays in the UK because of our lovely hot summer when their side was suffering from daily thunderstorms.  Love to see another summer of 1995 happening again and it was the only year when I see stubborn nettles died completely, never happened in 2003 and 2006 due to some rain around.

1995 was an amazing summer, but I remember on my birthday in August it poured with rain for the first time in weeks!

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From what i can remember 1995 was pretty toasty at times here,but gotta say it was great,i recall doing 60mph driving to porthcawl beach and with the window down putting my arm out to get some cool air yet it still felt warm even at that speed...great stuff