The Met Office seem to have upgraded their longer-range forecast for a warmer & drier first half of June:

"UK Outlook for Sunday 5 Jun 2011 to Sunday 19 Jun 2011:

 

The Met Office seem to have upgraded their longer-range forecast for a warmer & drier first half of June:

"UK Outlook for Sunday 5 Jun 2011 to Sunday 19 Jun 2011:

For this period, rainfall amounts look to be close to or below average for the time of year for most parts of the UK. Sunshine is likely to be above average for the most part and this will help give temperatures above average, or even well above the average in some areas, for much of the period, especially in the south and east.

Updated: 1255 on Sat 21 May 2011"

 

Interesting.

 

Fingers crossed

Best get the wellies and umberallas ready then.

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"People don't want to be scare-mongered though."

 

You obviously have no idea how headlines like the Express published to all those people including myself  who do not like nor can tolerate excessive heat and make life miserable 

 

They sure as hell scare me

Summer forecast from WSI;

http://www.wsieurope.com/1f01c5d6-2802-47e9-a787-13326d46cf5e/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

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More evidence of disagreement. More evidence of what a load of tosh LRFs are. Still bemuses me that some people read them and digest them. There should be a disclaimer admitting that due to season-long forecasting being scientifically impossible with any accuracy whatsoever, then all LRFs should be taken for what they are - useless

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The consensus does seem to be around a warmer and drier summer than recent summers, with August probably the best month. Nobody has gone with Netweather in predicting a very hot and dry summer - YET!

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The consensus does seem to be around a warmer and drier summer than recent summers, with August probably the best month. Nobody has gone with Netweather in predicting a very hot and dry summer - YET!

Will be interesting to see what TWO have to say!

The consensus does seem to be around a warmer and drier summer than recent summers, with August probably the best month. Nobody has gone with Netweather in predicting a very hot and dry summer - YET!

.....but not in Daveyland. June looks likely to be what I have been predicting

I'll tell you what I can imagine will happen in June this year:

A fine start with high pressure and warm air across the UK, once we clear the cloud out.

Then we do see high pressure to our west becoming more dominant again, but this is high pressure across the Azores which ridges northeast, giving a spell with a northwesterly/west-northwesterly airflow, this soon diminishing as the high from the Azores builds further northeast, in time shifting its position completely, with troughing establishing near the Azores and the UK under strong high pressure influence.

This may be in place by the end of the second week (if we consider next week to be the first). From there on we see the high drifting into Scandinavia but only very slowly, this meaning a lot of fine and potentially hot weather for a week or so from mid-month.

As yet I'm undecided on how things shape up for the very end of the month.

 

So, I'm in disagreement with GFS' desire to have an inflated high out west which brings northerlies and some troughing to the UK. ECM is some way closer to my line of thinking, this also highlighting the potential for the north to experience a brief return of the rain and wind around 8th-12th June.

This is a fun outlook, as I view long range forecasting as a hit and miss affair out to one month ahead and often a bit of a joke beyond that range. This is why I much prefer the current Met Office outlooks that go to 30 days over the old seasonal forecasts

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More evidence of what a load of tosh LRFs are.

You are wrong to dismiss all LRFs in this way. Most are probabilities based on factors known to influence our weather. I agree that some are not worth reading - there is a poster on this forum who also seems to predict cold Februarys because that is what people want to hear.

Did you read Glacier Point's forecast for last winter for example? The cold December - average January - milder February sequence was predicted, and the reasons explained.

Nobody has anywhere near 100% accuracy with LRFs, but that is not the point. If they are right more often than they are wrong then they have some value, and for those of us with an interest in them it is best if the methodology is explained.

If you can show me statistics that prove someone out there is getting LRFs right more often than not, for a specific point on the globe (Britain for example, not a city) then I'll hold my hands up, but you can't. The only relevance LRFs have right now are for longer term global trends such as La Nina strengths etc. Localised LRFs for a season are impossible with any accuracy whatsoever. Anyone can make a guess based on probability, but there's no skill in that. I even see some amateur LRFs on here talking about weather fronts crossing areas at certain times 2 months down the line. LMAO 😂

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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif

Looking at this, what stands out for June is a strong high anomaly just off the eastern US coast.

Another exists right over Scandinavia, in a position that looks reasonable for heat in the UK, but suggests that thundery incursions may be quite frequent, with the high anomaly extending into the North Sea but not quite getting across the UK. Normal pressure over the UK suggests an even mix of low and high pressure, perhaps slightly favouring high pressure given that its a summer month that we're talking about.

There's no negative anomaly near the Azores which is something I'm looking for. Perhaps high pressure will dominate there for a time as well. Either that or troughing is to set up too far NE for Netweather and I to get what we're expecting; Spain has a slight negative anomaly on the chart.

 

Briefly, July doesn't look very promising at the moment on the CFS output, what with that northern blocking extending across Greenland, although Scandinavia still houses a slight positive anomaly. August remains mysterious... what's with all that troughing across Asia? In many ways its the reverse of the predicted June setup there. For the UK all I can see is a tiny positive anomaly just to the SE. Rather inconclusive in my opinion.

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Summer 2011

The overall set up for the summer will be for the Azores High is be displaced further north than usual in the Atlantic, but low pressure around Iceland and to the north of Scotland will probably be stronger than normal. This spells good news if you like quiet, dry and not overly hot summer weather.

June:

I'm expecting a very dry month for much of the country, with anticyclonic influences persisiting across much of the country. These areas of high pressure will frequently sit over the country giving warm and sunny periods, but it will also pull back into the Atlantic, giving cool and cloudy periods.

In the end I expect temperatures to be around or a little above average, with rainfall well below average.

July:

July probably has a similar pattern to June in the first half of the month, with warm and sunny periods alternating with cooler, duller northerly spells. The second half of the month may well have a stronger build of pressure across the country and if there is to be a major heatwave this summer, I would expect it to be in the four week period covering the last two weeks of July and the first two weeks of August *Note* I'm not predicting a four week heatwave, just saying this four week period is most likely to contain the hottest spell of the summer)

Temperatures warm or very warm, rainfall well below average.

August:

August may well start on a hot or very hot note, but I would expect a thundery breakdown to occur within the week. We then revert to the typical summer pattern of high pressure displaced north in the Atlantic keeping much of the country dry and fine, but low pressure to the north of Scotland keeps the overall flow off the Atlantic, so temperatures probably near normal. In the later stages of the month we may find the anticyclone finally starting to be pushed back to its more normal position as low pressure begins to exert more of an influence - Possibly setting us up for an early autumn?

Overall temperatures come out above average (mainly down to the opening of the month, which might see a very large positive deviation) and rainfall again looks well below average.

Summary: The big talking point of summer 2011 will be the on going dryness. Temperatures will be much more variable, but overall should come out average or above average in all three summer months. So a decent summer, in comparisson to recent summers, but one that probably doesn't match the 1976 media hype.

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Summer 2011

The overall set up for the summer will be for the Azores High is be displaced further north than usual in the Atlantic, but low pressure around Iceland and to the north of Scotland will probably be stronger than normal. This spells good news if you like quiet, dry and not overly hot summer weather.

June:

I'm expecting a very dry month for much of the country, with anticyclonic influences persisiting across much of the country. These areas of high pressure will frequently sit over the country giving warm and sunny periods, but it will also pull back into the Atlantic, giving cool and cloudy periods.

In the end I expect temperatures to be around or a little above average, with rainfall well below average.

July:

July probably has a similar pattern to June in the first half of the month, with warm and sunny periods alternating with cooler, duller northerly spells. The second half of the month may well have a stronger build of pressure across the country and if there is to be a major heatwave this summer, I would expect it to be in the four week period covering the last two weeks of July and the first two weeks of August *Note* I'm not predicting a four week heatwave, just saying this four week period is most likely to contain the hottest spell of the summer)

Temperatures warm or very warm, rainfall well below average.

August:

August may well start on a hot or very hot note, but I would expect a thundery breakdown to occur within the week. We then revert to the typical summer pattern of high pressure displaced north in the Atlantic keeping much of the country dry and fine, but low pressure to the north of Scotland keeps the overall flow off the Atlantic, so temperatures probably near normal. In the later stages of the month we may find the anticyclone finally starting to be pushed back to its more normal position as low pressure begins to exert more of an influence - Possibly setting us up for an early autumn?

Overall temperatures come out above average (mainly down to the opening of the month, which might see a very large positive deviation) and rainfall again looks well below average.

Summary: The big talking point of summer 2011 will be the on going dryness. Temperatures will be much more variable, but overall should come out average or above average in all three summer months. So a decent summer, in comparisson to recent summers, but one that probably doesn't match the 1976 media hype.

Cheers for that Gavin...sounds pretty good so you reckon a 76 style summer...(il have to contact the express and miss quote you a touch) lol

Dean....THFC

Summer 2011

The overall set up for the summer will be for the Azores High is be displaced further north than usual in the Atlantic, but low pressure around Iceland and to the north of Scotland will probably be stronger than normal. This spells good news if you like quiet, dry and not overly hot summer weather.

Thanks - interesting read. I hope you are right as this sounds like the type of summer I like. I would much prefer the high pressure to be positioned like July 1982 [one of my favourite summer months] with the clear air and good visibilty this brings rather than the depressing humidity we had at times during July 1994 for example.

The consensus does seem to be around a warmer and drier summer than recent summers, with August probably the best month. Nobody has gone with Netweather in predicting a very hot and dry summer - YET!

Will be interesting to see what TWO have to say!

The TWO forecast and press release were issued earlier today, and will be published on the site either tomorrow or Wed. I won't give the game away, but I can't see it getting as much traction in the media as some of the other forecasts which have been put out in the last few weeks.

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I think  might feature rather a lot in TWO summer forecast?

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I think  might feature rather a lot in TWO summer forecast?

Or maybe its just for the most part rather unexciting, like your own forecast but with a bit more rain around?

Fact is, unless is predicts notably wetter or drier and/or warmer or colder than average conditions, its not going to be talked about much in the media, if at all.

"TWO's Brian Gaze predicts an okay/passable summer"

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I think  might feature rather a lot in TWO summer forecast?

Or maybe its just for the most part rather unexciting, like your own forecast but with a bit more rain around?

Fact is, unless is predicts notably wetter or drier and/or warmer or colder than average conditions, its not going to be talked about much in the media, if at all.

"TWO's Brian Gaze predicts an okay/passable summer"

 As you say, there has to be an 'angle' on it if there is to be any interest.

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