14 April 2011 20:22:14
If a hot, dry summer came off from the weather we are having now, there would be problems with how dry it is? How long would it be before we see it being covered by the media, we have heard some attention from some papers, but nothing outstanding enough for most of britain to have some idea with what is going on. I guess when we get our first proper hot spell, the dry weather/hosepipe bans will come into play over the tv etc.


The thing I hate is when I am on Facebook, and people are moaning that it is raining! I know, some people would not ever like to see it ever, but this part of the world has had probably less than 14mm of rain since march! It is nothing. We havent had any weeks since february maybe, where we have had noticeable rainfall for over a week. TbH i dont think some people notice how dry it has been at all, even if the frequency of rain was high day in and day out, people would complain, but it is astonishingly dry, cracks are showing in the mud, on my way to work, I walk past these houses on the road side, and they have roughly 4 by 4 metere greens with a tree in the middle and all around the edge on most, the grass is literally brown and same gos for under the trees.

John S2
14 April 2011 22:05:23

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


2007 was really tansitioning from El Nino to La Nina. There is a specific issue with summers that transition to La Nina that means most of the time they are a write off.


Yes, I agree. Even though I mentioned 2007 I am not expecting a summer as bad as that [or as bad as 2008, which was worse than 2007 in my area]. The various signals I look at for predicting/guessing the nature of the summer are not all pulling in the same direction.


 

Gavin P
15 April 2011 11:24:44

Originally Posted by: John S2 


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


2007 was really tansitioning from El Nino to La Nina. There is a specific issue with summers that transition to La Nina that means most of the time they are a write off.


Yes, I agree. Even though I mentioned 2007 I am not expecting a summer as bad as that [or as bad as 2008, which was worse than 2007 in my area]. The various signals I look at for predicting/guessing the nature of the summer are not all pulling in the same direction.


 



Yeah, the signals are quite conflicting (aren't they always) We might be reaching quite a crunch point actually, with the break-up of the PV. How the jet stream reacts when blocking forms around Greenland might have quite an important knock on effect for the early part of summer at least.


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Gavin P
15 April 2011 18:29:45

Joe B'astardi going for a warm summer across most of Europe;


http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?p=1113


JAMSTEC going for a very warm and dry summer across Europe;


http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/


(click the Seasonal Predictions link in the sidebar)


However, ECM May-July isn't much to write home about;


http://retro.met.no/sesongvarsler/index.html


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
heatandsnow
16 April 2011 16:13:15
I have a hunch that we could be in for a brilliant August, preceded by an average June and July temperature wise, though very dry. August being perhaps the warmest on record, but it would not mean the whole Summer was spectacular, not ruling out warmth at times in June and July. Though really, just a hunch right now.
John S2
16 April 2011 16:44:43

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Joe B'astardi going for a warm summer across most of Europe;


http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?p=1113



I see he mentions the horror summer of 2008 as one of his anologues.

16 April 2011 22:31:04

Originally Posted by: John S2 


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Joe B'astardi going for a warm summer across most of Europe;


http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?p=1113



I see he mentions the horror summer of 2008 as one of his anologues.


yes but wasn't that summer bad because of the pattern, that took off after the summer of 2007? I can't remember what process the La nina was in or whatever, but I am sure, the 2008 summer was due to something more unusual?

heatandsnow
17 April 2011 10:23:22
The Summer of 2008 wasn't THAT bad here. Certainly not as bad as 2007!
Gavin P
17 April 2011 11:16:47

Originally Posted by: John S2 


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Joe B'astardi going for a warm summer across most of Europe;


http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?p=1113



I see he mentions the horror summer of 2008 as one of his anologues.



2008 is certainly *A* analogue in terms of the mature, declining La Nina, the cool PDO and warm AMO. The other analogues are 1950, 1955 and 1956. Out of those four, three summers are bad and one summer is excellent. So the analogues probably do favour a poor summer for us at least.


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
LeedsLad123
17 April 2011 12:15:35
The summer of 2008 was vile, awful. 2009 was marginally better.
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
heatandsnow
17 April 2011 16:02:14

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

The summer of 2008 was vile, awful. 2009 was marginally better.


Well, I suppose for your area it would have been worse, but there was indeed some nice weather to be had at times, and we reached 30c in August. 2007 is a different story and was absolutely awful.


2009 was good round my area as well. Far better than 2008. We had a heatwave which lasted a week. At times July was pretty dismal but then August was a cracker, not scorching, but it was dry here and very warm at times, we reached 30c a couple of times in August.


But again, this is from my area's point of view, and I imagine it was totally different up North.


How is the weather faring for you so far this year?

LeedsLad123
18 April 2011 04:31:53

Originally Posted by: heatandsnow 


Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

The summer of 2008 was vile, awful. 2009 was marginally better.


Well, I suppose for your area it would have been worse, but there was indeed some nice weather to be had at times, and we reached 30c in August. 2007 is a different story and was absolutely awful.


2009 was good round my area as well. Far better than 2008. We had a heatwave which lasted a week. At times July was pretty dismal but then August was a cracker, not scorching, but it was dry here and very warm at times, we reached 30c a couple of times in August.


But again, this is from my area's point of view, and I imagine it was totally different up North.


How is the weather faring for you so far this year?



Really good, I'm interested to find out what the sun totals for April will be.


Up here (I've noticed anyway), the weather has been awful in July and August but good in September (certainly the case last year), which isn't so good for the kids.  


There was also some hot weather here too, in 2009 and 2010. We have not reached the magic 30C mark since 2006 though.


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
heatandsnow
18 April 2011 06:39:11

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


Originally Posted by: heatandsnow 


Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

The summer of 2008 was vile, awful. 2009 was marginally better.


Well, I suppose for your area it would have been worse, but there was indeed some nice weather to be had at times, and we reached 30c in August. 2007 is a different story and was absolutely awful.


2009 was good round my area as well. Far better than 2008. We had a heatwave which lasted a week. At times July was pretty dismal but then August was a cracker, not scorching, but it was dry here and very warm at times, we reached 30c a couple of times in August.


But again, this is from my area's point of view, and I imagine it was totally different up North.


How is the weather faring for you so far this year?



Really good, I'm interested to find out what the sun totals for April will be.


Up here (I've noticed anyway), the weather has been awful in July and August but good in September (certainly the case last year), which isn't so good for the kids.  


There was also some hot weather here too, in 2009 and 2010. We have not reached the magic 30C mark since 2006 though.



I'm glad to hear the weather is doing well up North too, let's hope you reach the magic 30c this year.


Indeed, let's hope this year's July and August fare better than they have in the past few years and that we don't get the best of Summer in May and June again!

Osprey
20 April 2011 09:29:42

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Originally Posted by: John S2 


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


I get the feeling we've swung from one extreme (cold) to another (heat) and as such I'd not rule out one of the hottest/driest summers on record.


Could see us challenging 2006/2003/1995/1976.



I'm surprised that there is so much optimism at present, given that there appears to me to be as much similarity with 2007 at present as some of the hot years being mentioned, and some factors are similar to 2008.



2007 was really tansitioning from El Nino to La Nina. There is a specific issue with summers that transition to La Nina that means most of the time they are a write off.


These summers that occur during a mature La Nina or straight after a La Nina can go either way. Sometimes they can be a write off, 1956, 2008, for example. But you just need to look at the summers of 1955, 1975, 1976 and to some extent 1999, to see that you can actually get a surprisingly good outcome during or at the end of a mature La Nina.



Is it possible a volcanic erruption (Say Iceland again) could knock the weather off balance to wetter cooler conditions?


Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
John S2
20 April 2011 11:32:07

Originally Posted by: Osprey 


Is it possible a volcanic erruption (Say Iceland again) could knock the weather off balance to wetter cooler conditions?



Yes - temporarily and with a time lag. 1816, known as the year without a summer, was influenced by the eruption of Mount Tambora which occurred in April 1815. Also the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 caused temporary cooling, but global temperatures recovered after 1993.


The volcanic eruption would have to be a major one, and it is thought that volcanoes at lower latitudes have more effect as the sulphur dioxide they release spreads over a greater area than eruptions at higher latitudes.

sriram
20 April 2011 18:55:16
i dont know whether anyone else has mentioned this - but this summer could be like 2007 or 1997 going by a warm dry spring - 2007 had a washout June and July and 1997 followed suit but with a hot and sunny August - pattern matching is dangerous though - the weather has a high degree of entropy - disorder - that makes it so interesting
Sriram
Sedgley, West Midlands ( just south of Wolverhampton )
162m ASL
stodge
20 April 2011 19:15:12

I worry about a prolonged hot spell in London, where I reside. It's bad enough to have to use the mobile sauna fully clothed but with bad air quality and high temperatures, people are going to really suffer and I don't rule out deaths among the elderly.


That may be alarmist but I hope the authorities are getting prepared and for the possibility of water rationing in a city of eight million people.


I really hope it doesn't happen and I also hope that IF it does, people on here aren't going to revel in it - ten days of temps of 35c or higher won't be funny at all.

domma
20 April 2011 19:16:44

Surely by the law of averages we will end up having a long wet spell at some time, you can bet it will be in June ,July or August, the Met Office does seem keen to keep the predominantly dry weather going well into May. 


___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Gary

Osprey
20 April 2011 19:17:50

Originally Posted by: John S2 


Originally Posted by: Osprey 


Is it possible a volcanic erruption (Say Iceland again) could knock the weather off balance to wetter cooler conditions?



Yes - temporarily and with a time lag. 1816, known as the year without a summer, was influenced by the eruption of Mount Tambora which occurred in April 1815. Also the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 caused temporary cooling, but global temperatures recovered after 1993.


The volcanic eruption would have to be a major one, and it is thought that volcanoes at lower latitudes have more effect as the sulphur dioxide they release spreads over a greater area than eruptions at higher latitudes.



 


Interesting Thank you John


In 1976 the experience of the spring back then was very similar to what we have now. I know it's not scientific but this does feel oh so similar and have said we are due for a summer like 76

Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
Gavin P
20 April 2011 19:53:33

 


We will get a prolonged very wet spell at some point, but theres nothing to say it has be this side autumn.


 


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
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