Indeed. 2003 was not so great here but 2006 was amazing with 30C days up here.. obviously hotter down south.

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Its not out of the question that we could be about to rival April 2007 for warmth in terms of the CET mean.

However, we will be doing so under very different patterns:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2007/Rrea00120070403.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2007/Rrea00120070405.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2007/Rrea00120070407.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2007/Rrea00120070410.gif

Note how high pressure was out west of the UK, and when it sunks south there was no high pressure cell out east of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2007/Rrea00120070415.gif

Breifly, we saw something more akin to the pattern expected during the first 10 days of April.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2007/Rrea00120070418.gif

Very shortly, though, we were back to high pressure out just west of the UK.

Then then got pushed east, but collapses. Beyond that, northern blocking showed its hand:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2007/Rrea00120070428.gif

 

The point of this is to reinforce my statement about how this year is different to the past four.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2008/Rrea00120080414.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2008/Rrea00120080418.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2008/Rrea00120080428.gif

Those sum up 2008's April quite well.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120090414.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120090418.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120090421.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120090425.gif

2009 fairly well illustrated.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120100414.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120100418.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120100422.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120100425.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120100430.gif

Finally you have last year.

It seems that a strong Greenland high featured for near a week or so during all of these past four Aprils. Also, high pressure was common out west or northwest, only fleetingly getting out to our east, then as a fast decaying feature. Pressure was often not very high south of the UK for more than the odd few days at a time.

So concludes my whistle stop tour of the past four Aprils in order to reveal how things have changed this time around. This is why I believe that the summer will follow a different pattern to the last four, be it a wet one or a dry one.

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Belonging to the construction industry we use to say Re: Winters "We are due for a freezer of a winter" lo and behold two on the trot

We've also agreed there will be (and we are due for one) a 1976 summer

However (neck on block) I'll go for dry very warm summer with the occasional drizzle day and lighting storm... (I hope)

John

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Belonging to the construction industry we use to say Re: Winters "We are due for a freezer of a winter" lo and behold two on the trot

We've also agrred there will beand we are due for a 1976 summer

However (neck on block) I'll go for dry very warm summer with the occasional drizzle day and lighting storm... (I hope)

John

Let's hope so!

Belonging to the construction industry we use to say Re: Winters "We are due for a freezer of a winter" lo and behold two on the trot

We've also agrred there will beand we are due for a 1976 summer

However (neck on block) I'll go for dry very warm summer with the occasional drizzle day and lighting storm... (I hope)

John

Let's hope so!

We'll be begging for rain and thinking back on those lovely icy cold days of last December 

 

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Belonging to the construction industry we use to say Re: Winters "We are due for a freezer of a winter" lo and behold two on the trot

We've also agrred there will beand we are due for a 1976 summer

However (neck on block) I'll go for dry very warm summer with the occasional drizzle day and lighting storm... (I hope)

John

Let's hope so!

We'll be begging for rain and thinking back on those lovely icy cold days of last December 

 

Indeed!

I've been looking through some metoffice data and it seems to me that 1995 was a pretty amazing Summer.
2006 was great in June and especially July, August less so, but still better than the August we've just had.
2003 was good right through, but only August stands out as amazing. . .
1990 looks pretty interesting. Warmest May I can find, warmer than the quite cool June in fact. Though July and especially August look amazing.
So, from that, I can gather that the best Summer overall would indeed be 1976. For some proper heat, though not always prolonged - 2003. A whole month or two of super warmth - 2006
A hot August for the holidays - 1995 or 1990. (or 2003, but overall not quite as warm in that month)
Any of these Summers would be incredible though: 1976, 1983, 1990, 1994, 1995, 1997, 2003, 2006 and 2010.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=206&DAY=20110402

Some fine weather in that forecast, if with some poorer spells thrown in for balance.

Obviously not something to take too seriously. Even their new month ahead outlook seems questionable to me, perhaps rather biased by the last few GFS runs which have thrown in the odd northerly?

 

Its a more pleasant summer forecast at this range from weatheronline than I've seen for a few years now, at least.

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http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=206&DAY=20110402

Some fine weather in that forecast, if with some poorer spells thrown in for balance.

Obviously not something to take too seriously. Even their new month ahead outlook seems questionable to me, perhaps rather biased by the last few GFS runs which have thrown in the odd northerly?

 

Its a more pleasant summer forecast at this range from weatheronline than I've seen for a few years now, at least.

 

I had a quick look at that. Must say, did indeed take it with a pinch of salt

Belonging to the construction industry we use to say Re: Winters "We are due for a freezer of a winter" lo and behold two on the trot

We've also agreed there will be (and we are due for one) a 1976 summer

However (neck on block) I'll go for dry very warm summer with the occasional drizzle day and lighting storm... (I hope)

John

God forbid that we have another 1976 summer. By autumn that year we were desperate for rain, everything was bone dry, grass yellow and dead, soil rock hard, water rationing imminent, structural problems because of clay soil drying out. Not again in my lifetime I hope.

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Belonging to the construction industry we use to say Re: Winters "We are due for a freezer of a winter" lo and behold two on the trot

We've also agreed there will be (and we are due for one) a 1976 summer

However (neck on block) I'll go for dry very warm summer with the occasional drizzle day and lighting storm... (I hope)

John

God forbid that we have another 1976 summer. By autumn that year we were desperate for rain, everything was bone dry, grass yellow and dead, soil rock hard, water rationing imminent, structural problems because of clay soil drying out. Not again in my lifetime I hope.

 

Thats what I said about the winter of 1982... Then low and behold December 2010

Back in 82 I was shoveling snow instead of sand and cement 

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I currently think that a dry summer similar to 1976/2003/2006(these years have all been mentioned in this thread) is unlikely. We are currently in a -PDO phase and the last such phase [1950s & 1960s] was not noted for good summers. Also if the current high SOI values continue that would not be a good indicator for a dry July/August period.
Each of the past 4 summers have seen an England & Wales precipitation [EWP] total greater than 200mm. I think the likelihood is greater than 50% that EWP will exceed 200mm this summer and if this does happen then it would be the first time there have been 5 consecutive summers with EWP>200mm since 1914-1918.
Sorry to pour cold water on the more optimistic posts!

Following on from the above from John S2, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is positive now and was also positive during the 1950s and 1960s.

I can see a few very warm years in the CET record for that time, some not far off recent warm years, but were there any fine summers? Hopefully someone has the answer

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Following on from the above from John S2, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is positive now and was also positive during the 1950s and 1960s.

I can see a few very warm years in the CET record for that time, some not far off recent warm years, but were there any fine summers? Hopefully someone has the answer

Stormchaser - although the 50s&60s were generally poor for summers, the 'high' summer [ie July & August] in 1955 was a cracker, June 1957 was good, and summer 1959 continued well into autumn.

Following on from the above from John S2, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is positive now and was also positive during the 1950s and 1960s.

1960's was actually a cold AMO period. Warm AMO was 30's, 40's and 50's. Cold AMO was 60's, 70's and 80's. Warm AMO, 90's, 00's and 10's.

As far as this summer goes, the 1950's are a good match, with the cold PDO and warm AMO and fading La Nina. 1955 was very good, as already stated, but 1956 was a disaster.

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1959 would be my perfect Spring/Summer period. Infact if i was to choose a year to repeat again 1959 would come very close. April and May were warm and dry and that did lead on to, although not spectacular, a consistently good summer.

I still think we're in for a wet summer but warm overall.

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I still think we're in for a wet summer but warm overall.

Let it be three very fine days and a MASSIVE thunderstorm, repeating over and over for weeks on end!

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I still think we're in for a wet summer but warm overall.

Indeed, my thoughts as well. Deterioration being the order of the day and the relative warmth may be more to do with warmer nights than extreme daytime heat

I still think we're in for a wet summer but warm overall.

Indeed, my thoughts as well. Deterioration being the order of the day and the relative warmth may be more to do with warmer nights than extreme daytime heat

Any more cheerful thoughts Dave?

I suppose that warm and wet is better than cold and wet.   If it rains at night maybe it's OK...

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