Its looking like it could be a fairly good month for the south, whilst the north often sees some Atlantic influence. Airmasses could be alternating quite frequently between warm and sultry continental air and fresher maritime air, whilst the sun often finds a way through for the south but has more trouble further north.

So pretty much exactly what we'd expect

Agreed what Matty been saying in MO thread, it more like Icelandic climate over UK at the moment and definitely not normal.   Typical British summer climate would included some heatwaves every now and then lasting from few days to 1 week with some years having 2 weeks long. 

Agreed what Matty been saying in MO thread, it more like Icelandic climate over UK at the moment and definitely not normal.   Typical British summer climate would included some heatwaves every now and then lasting from few days to 1 week with some years having 2 weeks long. 

But we had almost summer-like conditions in April and May, dry and quite warm.  It's exceedingly rare to get six months of dry weather, which is what would have been needed to produce a settled warm summer.

There are signs that the southern half will be under the influence of the Azores high rather more, which would give very pleasant weather - mostly dry, sunny periods and highs in the low to mid 20s.

The only thing I find depressing is getting past 21 June and realising that the days are growing shorter again and fine days will be slighly shorter with each passing week....

Typical British summer climate would included some heatwaves every now and then lasting from few days to 1 week with some years having 2 weeks long. 

So basically what we've had so far this summer

Typical British summer climate would included some heatwaves every now and then lasting from few days to 1 week with some years having 2 weeks long. 

 Do the two days in early June and the two days now not count, then? Face it Jiries, our summers are shite, and summers such as 2006 are far from average and are exceptional, why do you think people bugger off abroad every summer? Expecting hot weather for extended periods of time every single year in the UK is foolish at least and you're setting yourself up for a great disappointment. 

Edited by user  27 June 2011 05:59:24  | Reason: Not specified

---

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.

Typical British summer climate would included some heatwaves every now and then lasting from few days to 1 week with some years having 2 weeks long. 

 Do the two days in early June and the two days now not count, then? Face it Jiries, our summers are shite, and summers such as 2006 are far from average and are exceptional, why do you think people bugger off abroad every summer? Expecting hot weather for extended periods of time every single year in the UK is foolish at least and you're setting yourself up for a great disappointment. 

But Jiries lives on the hope that the British Isles will somehow get transported to a continental climate regime. In the winter he wants extreme cold and snow and in the summer lots of heat....

---

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E

CFS seems to be finding the pattern for August now (after many months of not really latching on to the pattern)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euPrecMon.gif 

Looking mainly anticyclonic and dry.

Could August be the best month of this summer?

CFS seems to be finding the pattern for August now (after many months of not really latching on to the pattern)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euPrecMon.gif 

Could August be the best month of this summer?

 

Judging by the previous four years - no.

WeatherOnline has quite an interesting article from Philip Eden on the "typical British summer"

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?ARCHIV=0&LANG=en&MENU=Extra&FILE=extra_pe.tit&DAY=20110628

CFS seems to be finding the pattern for August now (after many months of not really latching on to the pattern)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euPrecMon.gif 

Could August be the best month of this summer?

Judging by the previous four years - no.

Judging by CFS's forecast accuracy - no 

We went through these a couple of weeks ago when even the July ones changed radically at short notice. They were showing a Scandi High for July. Now they have a Scandi trough

Having said that, I like the look of the permanent Icelandic High that drops anchor there from October onwards. December looks severe again

If only they could be relied upon

CFS seems to be finding the pattern for August now (after many months of not really latching on to the pattern)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euPrecMon.gif 

Could August be the best month of this summer?

 

Judging by the previous four years - no.

So hopefully yes!

Although I'm trying not to think about model output too much tight now, I'd just like to post some information regarding potential pattern development next month:

The predicted shifts in MJO and GWO during the next 15 days are - I am told - expected to take us through a pattern in which troughing is generally close to the NW and a stronger Greenland high is in place (again...), before eventually emerging into a pattern which favours high pressure across the UK instead of over Greenland.

Perhaps this explains why the CFS prediction for July has no anomaly over Greenland at all; high pressure during the first half is expected to be replaced by low pressure during the second half.

It could be that we get kind of lucky with the timing of this; the Atlantic looks to be low on energy during the period in which troughing is close to the UK, hence we may get away with lighter winds than would otherwise be the case, plus less widespread unsettled conditions. Obviously we then need to arrive at the better pattern before the Atlantic reawakens!

This is just a summary of some predictions I've read about on Netweather that use MJO and GWO as some of the key indicators (Glacier Point, for example). They could easily be wrong; they've had a poor record so far this summer to be honest.

Well, if you say so... I have honestly been checking the CFS output several times a week for the past few months and thats what I remember. Perhaps, though, the signal has only been consistent for a couple of weeks at best.

As I said earlier, the range that August is currently at is prone to large changes... once they weren't too frequent, but on the evidence of your responses I guess they've become more commonplace now.

Regardless, my own expectation has always been for a summer that improves overall as we head through it. I could see high pressure dominating around Greenland during June for much of the time, and now I forsee it becoming ever less frequent as we head through July. As much as ever has been the case, I hope I'm right about this one, about as much as I've hoped to be right when calling cold and snowy weather in winter! Save Maunder Minimum 2 for the winter please!

SC,

Take a look at your post on page 10:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif

Taking another look at this, it appears that the model expects low pressure to be more often south of the UK than running past the northwest, with high pressure often extending across from the west and east to give the most settled conditions from the midlands north.

This is somewhat at odds with the current GFS and ECM output, which keeps the low pressure belt further north with any high pressure from the west and east tending to influence the south the most.

This was updated last Saturday, during a time of great model confusion regarding the progression through the rest of this month, so that may explain the differences.

Looking at July, we can see that the Greenland blocking is gone, with high pressure quite close to our east but also troughing close to our southwest. Given that these are expected anomalies for the whole month, there is room there for some fine, hot weather but also some cooler (if still muggy and  probably warm when nights are factored in) more unsettled interludes. Given the situation with June, I guess this prediction has to be taken with a whole teaspoon of salt

August, on the face of it, looks like being the most average month ever seen across the Atlantic

See what I mean? The charts now are the opposite of that!!

I see what you mean there YD, the July pattern prediction has flattened considerably from that shown on 7th June. Initially I remember the high to our east being progged further south, then in time we saw high anomalies progged to exist to our south and southwest too, showing more of a zonal pattern, if displaced northward (classic summer setup?).

It's my own thinking that causes me to give the CFS prediction for August more thought than some; they are similar as they currently stand. I (and many others looking for a good summer holiday period) can only hope that this time around things don't change too much.

Good grief! If WeatherOnline is anywhere near correct with this August forecast summer 2011 will go down as another dire one;

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=seasonaloutlook&DAY=20110703

Just looked at the latest MJO forecasts. Whilst still tentative, the progression is a slow but steady one into Phase 2 from Phase 1. This is likely to bring a gradual lowering of heights over Greenland with the Atlantic storms eventually tracking far enough north of the UK to leave the south with plenty of dry, warm weather, whilst the north sees some rain still, but also plenty of drier interludes.

The current GFS and ECM model output is reflecting this to some extent.

I have plenty of reason to stand by my original thoughts from April for a summer that improves all the while as we progress through it.

I have to laugh at the weatheronline forecast. "All the available evidence" is complete b******s as the lastest CFS output, for example, has high pressure over the UK but centered just to our east.

The outlook also seems far too negative about the upcoming period out to 20th July. There's plenty to suggest that the Atlantic may be active, yes, but also be moving north of the UK for the most part. IMO a good longer range forecast needs to consider a range of possibilities rather than just picking out what is usually the most negative one in weatheronline's case.

Just looked at the latest MJO forecasts. Whilst still tentative, the progression is a slow but steady one into Phase 2 from Phase 1. This is likely to bring a gradual lowering of heights over Greenland with the Atlantic storms eventually tracking far enough north of the UK to leave the south with plenty of dry, warm weather, whilst the north sees some rain still, but also plenty of drier interludes.

The current GFS and ECM model output is reflecting this to some extent.

I have plenty of reason to stand by my original thoughts from April for a summer that improves all the while as we progress through it.

I have to laugh at the weatheronline forecast. "All the available evidence" is complete b******s as the lastest CFS output, for example, has high pressure over the UK but centered just to our east.

The outlook also seems far too negative about the upcoming period out to 20th July. There's plenty to suggest that the Atlantic may be active, yes, but also be moving north of the UK for the most part. IMO a good longer range forecast needs to consider a range of possibilities rather than just picking out what is usually the most negative one in weatheronline's case.

The CFS forecasts, as we have discussed, do not constitute evidence, not of any reliable sort anyway! The WO forecast for the short term looks reasonable and balanced to me, as does Gavin's thoughts and other experts. Once again, you state this "getting better all the time" mantra, but there is no evidence for this at all so far, is there?