Among other seasonal outlooks being updated in early August, the UK Met Office continues to be among the most bullish. The latest UKMET outlook for the core June-through-November season in the Atlantic, issued on August 1, is calling for a 70% chance of 14-24 named storms, 6-12 hurricanes, 3-9 major hurricanes, and an ACE between 120 and 310. These ranges are near or just slightly below the UKMET outlook issued in May, but still leaning way above a typical season’s activity.
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/08/clash-of-the-titans-hurricane-forecasters-lay-odds-on-an-epic-battle/ 

The battle referred to in the link is between El Nino (minimal hurricane activity) and record SSTs in the Atlantic (enhanced hurricane activity).

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Dora has now been at hurricane strength since July 31st, and has gone largely unnoticed in the expanse of the Pacific Ocean
https://www.wunderground.com/article/safety/hurricane/news/2023-08-07-hurricane-dora-tropical-storm-eugene-remnant-pacific 

The devastation of Lahaina, on the island Maui in Hawaii, by fire has been caused by high winds only on the outer fringes of Dora, which passed by some 400 miles away to the south. High pressure to the north of Hawaii is at least as much responsible for the strength of the winds.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?cpac 

See also a post in 'Unusual World Weather'.

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https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/08/what-caused-the-deadly-hawaii-wildfires/  for detailed analysis of the Lahaina disaster.

Perhaps this should go in the 'Unusual World Weather' after all, as per Scilly Dave's opening post, despite the press having got wind (pun intended) of hurricane Dora and pinning the blame on that. In fact the major cause seems to have been "The high pressure system primarily responsible started out near the US West coast a few days ago, then migrated westward, dragging some very dry continental air with it. This dry air helped the fires", added to which a Fohn effect increasing the dryness and heat of the winds. 

Dora was no closer than 700 miles to Hawaii, and its storm-force winds extended only 150 miles from the centre.

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Watching this thread now as I’ve just booked us a cruise from 27th August to 11th September.  Going round the Bahamas and Florida mainly, then up to New York and back to Cape Canaveral.  Hoping the weather behaves!  🤞

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Although there are a couple of disturbances on the Atlantic, neither seems to be in any hurry to develop.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc 
 

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Hopefully it will stay that way.  Although the ship’s captain will be informed of weather conditions and a change in the itinerary wouldn’t bother us, as we did a similar itinerary in May. 

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In the Pacific, hurricane Hilary looks set to cause havoc with heavy rain well up into S California. Currently cat 2 and intensifying but likely to decline once it finds cooler water off San Diego.

A TD from the Caribbean is likely to drench Texas.

Two 'Invests' (i.e. worth direct investigation) on the Atlantic look as if they may be suppressed by the Saharan dust layer. GFS 0z let one develop but the 18z is having none of it.

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Hilary's track likely to take it up into Canada - and maybe even traverse Canada to the Atlantic as a remnant feature
https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/storm.html?tcid=EP09 

Meanwhile there's a collection of promising disturbances between Africa and the Caribbean all of which look like they might recurve N-wards and tickle up the N Atlantic, even if not becoming powerful hurricanes. NHC has one already as TD6 but not going anywhere,
https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/ 
 

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No hurricanes on the Atlantic yet, but all of a sudden three named Tropical Storms - Emily, Franklin and Gert - plus a wet and squishy disturbance heading for Texas. Of the TSs, only Emily looks likely to persist and affect N Atlantic weather, reaching 40deg N, a few hundred miles off NY by Friday though Franklin may just reach hurricane status S of Bermuda by this time.

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The disturbance heading for Texas has been upgraded to TS Harold and should move swiftly inland. No change in the others.

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Hilary has moved on after setting rainfall records for Death Valley - top 24 hr fall was 3,01" at Stovepipe Wells, several stations recording 50% above previous day records.

Of the multiple TS on the Atlantic, unusually high SSTs have given small disturbances a kick start but all have been suffering from wind shear stifling further development. This wind shear is often associated with El Nino conditions.
Emily has died in mid-Atlantic but its remnants may give rise to a Zombie storm in a few days time as the SSTs are so high.
Franklin is drenching Hispaniola but  especially suffering from wind shear. Once it moves into a more favourable area, near Bermuda on Saturday, likely to become a full hurricane and run parallel to US East Coast.
Gert: RIP
Harold is drenching S Texas, they need the rain there after prolonged drought but probably not all at once.
 

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Hopefully Franklin will be clear of us as we’re sailing up the US East Coast. We fly to Cape Canaveral Sunday and sail to The Dominican Republic for Tuesday, so we missed the drenching from Franklin. Then Grand Turk, a couple of ports in the Bahamas, Florida again then up to New York, South Carolina, then Florida again. 

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Hopefully Franklin will be clear of us as we’re sailing up the US East Coast. We fly to Cape Canaveral Sunday and sail to The Dominican Republic for Tuesday, so we missed the drenching from Franklin. Then Grand Turk, a couple of ports in the Bahamas, Florida again then up to New York, South Carolina, then Florida again. 

Looks as if you'll be following Franklin as it moves up the East Coast - forecasts firming up on a cat 3 hurricane W  of Bermuda on Tuesday to a landfall in Newfoundland on Thursday.

Meanwhile a rather disorganised area of LP has drifted into the W Caribbean, and given the very high SST there should intensify rapidly once it reaches open water and heads for the Florida Panhandle - maybe reaching cat 1 despite only having a limited distance to travel. If so it will be named Idalia.

Saola, currently stalled NE of the Phillipines owing to blocking by ridges of HP, is thought likely to intensify further (currently cat 2) and move NW to either Taiwan or nearby Chinese mainland next week, perhaps reaching cat 5.

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Thanks DEW.  From tomorrow I’ll be putting my trust in the ship’s captain!  I know some itineraries in the Med have been changed to avoid bad weather and any changes to ours will be accepted. 

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Franklin now a Cat 4 with winds of 130mph 

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Idalia set to rapidly intensify in the Gulf and hit Florida whilst still getting stronger. Could be a Cat 4

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Franklin and Idalia both exceeding earlier expectations. That's what high SSTs do for you !

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Anyone who wants to watch Idalia make landfall. Reed Timmer will be broadcasting on YouTube. His work with tornadoes is fantastic, and hurricanes he focuses on storm surges and his meteorological knowledge is great. 

Idalia forecast to make landfall as cat 3 around 9am EDT (2pm BST), the strongest ever-recorded hurricane to hit the Big Bend area. Storm surge of 10 feet forecast, a record even if offset by 2 or 3 feet as arrival time is mid-tide. Winds extend inland to Gainesville, 50 miles inland having a 14% chance of this strength. 

ECM model takes Idalia across Florida with a high chance it will die in the Atlantic; GFS makes it do a loop and back into the Gulf to revive

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