If this was in America it would be all over our media non stop, yet we have close historic ties to this part of the world and many people from that region live here and will have relatives affected, yet no one even knows about it


 

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I'm just going to copy and paste my post from the usual weather section.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2023-05-11-atlantic-subtropical-storm-january-hurricane-season?cm_ven=dnt_social_instagram  A sub tropical storm formed according to the NHC back in January however it won't be named. This is the earliest official tropical Atlantic system.  More info from NOAA.. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/text/PNSNHC/2023/PNSNHC.202305111500.txt 
 

I've taken the liberty of editing the title so we can put all the major tropical storms in here, be they called hurricanes, cyclones or typhoons.

The first of the season is causing havoc in Bangladesh and especially Myanmar, for instance. This storm, named Mocha, was at one point a cat. 5. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-65587321  
 

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Also on this topic https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2023/05/25/2268931/mawar-reintensifies-super-typhoon-may-bring-heavy-rains-beginning-saturday 

Beware of confusion; the Philippines Met will change Mawar's name to Betty once it enters their territorial waters

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Cyclone Mawar breaking records
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/05/category-5-super-typhoon-mawar-rapidly-intensifies-to-175-mph-winds/ 
updated in the link to 185mph.

Guam got a battering but was 'lucky' in that an eyewall replacement cycle reduced wind speeds to around 130mph as it passed over (well, they'd have been luckier if it had missed them entirely).

That makes five cat.5 storms already observed globally this year; the average over 30 years to 2020 is 5.3 (listed at the end of the link)

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Article on the variability of the frequency with which tornados occur
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/05/the-u-s-hasnt-seen-an-ef5-tornado-in-almost-10-years-whats-going-on/ 
 

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https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/06/an-early-start-to-the-atlantic-cape-verde-season/ 
 The 2-day and 7-day odds of development are now 10% and 70%, respectively, in the latest Tropical Weather Outlook.

The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Bret. If Bret does form, it will be the third Atlantic storm of the year, following the formation of Tropical Storm Arlene on June 2 and an unnamed subtropical storm on January 16. The typical formation date of the season’s third storm is Aug. 3. The record-earliest formation date of the season’s third named storm came on June 2, 2020, when Tropical Storm Cristobal formed. That year had a record 30 named storms, and holds 26 of the 30 earliest formation date records.

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More definite prospects for the formation of Atlantic TS Bret
https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/brewing-tropical-rainstorm-sailing-westward-across-the-atlantic/1543896 

Includes a note on the lack of Saharan dust this year; such dust suppresses hurricane formation. Last year all the signs  except this were favourable for an active season but in the end the extra dust from the Sahara prevented hurricane formation on an extensive scale.
 

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TD 3 was upgraded at 5 p.m. EDT Monday to Tropical Storm Bret. It’s the farthest east in the tropical Atlantic that any named storm has developed so early in hurricane season (latitude 42.2 degrees west).
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/06/td-3-a-rare-june-hurricane-threat-for-the-caribbean/ 
with more analysis.

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Bret now confirmed as a strong TS to pass through the Antilles and die out in the Caribbean, but hot on Bret's heels comes another disturbance predicted to become TS Cindy in a day or two. Cindy will probably take a more N-ly track parallel to the coast of mainland US. 

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/06/lesser-antilles-prep-for-tropical-storm-bret/ 

Tailpiece from this link: As for having two named systems emerge in the Main Development Region during June, that would be a first in the historical record — just as there is no counterpart to the record-warm sea surface temperatures across much of the tropical and eastern North Atlantic that have been fuelling this premature burst of activity.

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TS Cindy now officially christened, and forecast by NHC to run comfortably clear to the north of the Caribbean islands before dying out near Bermuda - though some GFS charts have it intensifying and travelling parallel to the coast of the US mainland.

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TS Don wandering around in mid-Atlantic but not developing - worth noting however that it is a month earlier than the average 5th storm of the season (there was a 0th storm before the A-D sequence only picked up on satellite photos after the event)

Hurricane Calvin now cat 3 and likely to give Hawaii a near miss. Pacific systems this year have been slower to start than Atlantic ones but have become hurricanes.

Something which looks to be hurricane force showing up on GFS N Atlantic charts in a fortnight near the E coast of USA.

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Doksuri could be one of China’s strongest landfalling storms on record [cat 3/4], and a sequel is looming for next week.
This after it gave eastern Taiwan a much-needed period of heavy rain.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/07/reinvigorated-typhoon-doksuri-storms-toward-china-coast/ 

 

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What's the forecast for this hurricane season? Will the number of storms be greater or lesser than average?

What's the forecast for this hurricane season? Will the number of storms be greater or lesser than average?

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook 

NOAA’s outlook for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season.  ... and more details in the link re intensity

Such a wide spread of predictions doesn't, at least for me, inspire confidence in their forecasting!

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Doksuri made landfall as a cat 2 hurricane in SE China, its imminent arrival prompting an epic evacuation of 400,000 people. It shows what you can do under a totalitarian government. The upside is that there were only a handful of deaths in China including Taiwan, as opposed to the forty or so in the IMO less well organised Philippines.

China will get a second typhoon in a week, Khanun, with max impact further north near Shanghai; it may go on to hit Korea.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/07/one-down-another-coming-china-faces-two-typhoons-in-one-week/ 

As for the Atlantic, the season remains quiet. I'm not sure why the higher SSTs aren't having an effect. The current wave between Africa and America is expected to brush past Bermuda without much damage.

We could do with a major hurricane to survive into the North Atlantic and disrupt the present weather pattern - anything would be better than the current situation!

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Doksuri made landfall as a cat 2 hurricane in SE China, its imminent arrival prompting an epic evacuation of 400,000 people. It shows what you can do under a totalitarian government. The upside is that there were only a handful of deaths in China including Taiwan, as opposed to the forty or so in the IMO less well organised Philippines.

China will get a second typhoon in a week, Khanun, with max impact further north near Shanghai; it may go on to hit Korea.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/07/one-down-another-coming-china-faces-two-typhoons-in-one-week/ 

As for the Atlantic, the season remains quiet. I'm not sure why the higher SSTs aren't having an effect. The current wave between Africa and America is expected to brush past Bermuda without much damage.

We could do with a major hurricane to survive into the North Atlantic and disrupt the present weather pattern - anything would be better than the current situation!

That could perhaps be down to El Nino as it is often said that with El Nino, you tend to get fewer Atlantic hurricanes but more Pacific hurricanes.

If that is the case, I would expect to be seeing a more active season in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

I haven't checked though to see what the overall status is in the Eastern Pacific as far as hurricanes are concerned so I would more than happy to see an update on here from someone who knows what that current status is.
 

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That could perhaps be down to El Nino as it is often said that with El Nino, you tend to get fewer Atlantic hurricanes but more Pacific hurricanes.

If that is the case, I would expect to be seeing a more active season in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

I haven't checked though to see what the overall status is in the Eastern Pacific as far as hurricanes are concerned so I would more than happy to see an update on here from someone who knows what that current status is.
 

So far three hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific (a cat1, cat 2, and a cat 3) and a TD. That's about or above average but not enough data to tell whether it's statistically significant. NOAA forecast is for 7-11 hurricanes there in 2023, meaning a 55% chance of above average for the season,
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Epac_hurr/Slide1.JPG 

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Typhoon Doksuri is presenting Beijing with a major disaster:
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/31/asia/china-beijing-typhoon-doksuri-khanun-damage-intl-hnk/index.html 

The article mentions forty inches of rain so it's not surprising that radio reports this morning give a death toll of 40+ and rising. Some 31,000 people were evacuated..

The next typhoon, Khanun, looks to be less intense but to be slow moving over a wider area. Okinawa will get the worst of it, but also expect storm tides on the Chinese coast.

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