Believe it or not it wasnt a solely Isle of Sheppey forecast. Lots of rain for the north and west. 


 

🤣🤣🤣

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Ooh - that sounds exciting! We really do need rain down here.

Let's see what the 12z GFS has...

4mm tomorrow (signposted for a while). Another 3mm overnight into Saturday. And then possibly some showers in the early morning of next Wednesday.

Disappointing, frankly - I expected much more than a few poxy mm of rain, based on your description!

 

Can't even see that much here to be honest.

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Can't even see that much here to be honest.

I'm quite conflicted with hot weather these days. I generally like it but now silly hot records have been broken I prefer mid 20's and blue sky and sunshine. Why anyone would enjoy temps over 27C let alone 30C is beyond me. Plus I am a keen gardener and have an allotment so do want a bit of rain now and again.

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I'm quite conflicted with hot weather these days. I generally like it but now silly hot records have been broken I prefer mid 20's and blue sky and sunshine. Why anyone would enjoy temps over 27C let alone 30C is beyond me. Plus I am a keen gardener and have an allotment so do want a bit of rain now and again.

I like hot weather mainly for the warm evenings when the sunset is so late at this time of year.

The tradeoff is it can be too hot to work - my new extension gets pretty warm, I did invest in a desk fan the other week.
Right now though it feels quite chilly with the window open although the thermostat reckons it is 22C in here.

Models look generally unsettled and LP dominated for the next 10-14 days. Let's hope GEFS run 30 on the 00Z is the trendsetter!

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GFS 6z is another absolute stinker. Low pressure like a Limpet stuck to the UK. 

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I think it was around this time last year when hints of 40c being reached was coming into play.

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I think it was around this time last year when hints of 40c being reached was coming into play.

Both GEM and ECM toying around with bringing some serious heat to the UK in about 10 days. Annoyingly the ECM ensembles don't seem to be updating atm. 
 

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Both GEM and ECM toying around with bringing some serious heat to the UK in about 10 days. Annoyingly the ECM ensembles don't seem to be updating atm. 

 

A dramatic improvement cannot be ruled out. Today is miles better than what was forecast just 2 days ago.
According to Hadley we're still on 17.0plus 17.1C

Hopefully we'll end on 17.0C depends on the adjustment.
 

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ECM has just had a big upgrade and there have been some changes to the data sets. However, updates are running again now.

Ensembles

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrens.aspx?run=latest&chartname=ecmwfens850&chartlocation=london 

Deterministic

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhr.aspx 

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Probably not the correct thread, but not sure where to post really. Hysterical BBC 10 o’clock news weather showing 8c max across the country. They did admit it was wrong of course, so obviously having a few issues. Amused me anyway…

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Best ECM for ages. Our omnipresent low drifts far enough west to allow high pressure from the east and then south to build in nicely.  Very warm aswell. 

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Probably not the correct thread, but not sure where to post really. Hysterical BBC 10 o’clock news weather showing 8c max across the country. They did admit it was wrong of course, so obviously having a few issues. Amused me anyway…

MeteoGroup app the same this morning. Showing 8c in a SW’ly flow in July. What the hell?

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I like hot weather mainly for the warm evenings when the sunset is so late at this time of year.

The tradeoff is it can be too hot to work - my new extension gets pretty warm, I did invest in a desk fan the other week.
Right now though it feels quite chilly with the window open although the thermostat reckons it is 22C in here.

Models look generally unsettled and LP dominated for the next 10-14 days. Let's hope GEFS run 30 on the 00Z is the trendsetter!

You could put a Jumper on😎

MeteoGroup app the same this morning. Showing 8c in a SW’ly flow in July. What the hell?

This was mentioned on BBC 5 Live this morning. There is some glitch in the data conversion process (presumable API) that's causing this issue. 

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Looking at GFS and ECM this morning, the summary is a fairly cool first week in July with hints of something warmer (perhaps hot) in week 2. Later in week 2 GFS brings temperatures back down to near normal but that's a long way off. Wet in the north west, much drier in the south east. Fairly typical mid summer weather really which will suit Downpour (who revels in these situations 😉).

If it does cool down again mid month I can already see the headlines for July 19th:
Britain shivers in coolest summer for 3 years! Temperatures this day last year reached 40c and today is more than 20C (68F) [sic] cooler in many parts of the UK. 



 

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Best ECM for ages. Our omnipresent low drifts far enough west to allow high pressure from the east and then south to build in nicely.  Very warm aswell. 

Looking good for next week Thursday when having a new french door put in so need warm dry weather plus I am off from work for 2 weeks so perfect timing as well.  This unsettled weather seem very little effect and little rain for the midlands area with average temperatures.  

Probably not the correct thread, but not sure where to post really. Hysterical BBC 10 o’clock news weather showing 8c max across the country. They did admit it was wrong of course, so obviously having a few issues. Amused me anyway…

I hadn't realised it was on the actual TV forecast as well. I saw the apps were out of whack.




Meanwhile in the real world definite signs of a warm up, Maybe high 20s by next weekend?

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Still looking very unsettled for the 1st half of July, certainly in the North.

This coming weekend marks the start of the Edinburgh Trades Fortnight and according to the latest model output, the omens are not looking good there at all for anyone who is going to be on holiday during that period (that is better news  though, for those gardeners and growers who have been desperate for some rain).

That is such a shame when you consider that we had such a great start to this summer, but all of that is now looking just like another distant memory.😡


 

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Looking at GFS and ECM this morning, the summary is a fairly cool first week in July with hints of something warmer (perhaps hot) in week 2. Later in week 2 GFS brings temperatures back down to near normal but that's a long way off. Wet in the north west, much drier in the south east. Fairly typical mid summer weather really which will suit Downpour (who revels in these situations 😉).

If it does cool down again mid month I can already see the headlines for July 19th:
Britain shivers in coolest summer for 3 years! Temperatures this day last year reached 40c and today is more than 20C (68F) [sic] cooler in many parts of the UK. 



 

Ha, true. Although I’m on holiday in Yorkshire next weekend so slightly nervous about rain quantities still!

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