Zubzero
25 June 2023 09:46:58
Originally Posted by: Retron 

The nice stuff only lasted a couple of days, then it was back to hot (or very hot) and sunny and dry.

The upcoming nice stuff keeps getting watered down, unsurprisingly, with perhaps some rain on Thursday now. I won't be holding my breath, as the 95% sun and drought summer continues unabated!

That is, of course, for my little corner of England. Further north it does look like becoming more seasonable for a time.



I've had enough of the heat all ready. 
Last night was very muggy. It's 27C atm,and another warm night in store. And as you say any cooler unsettled options keep getting pushed back. Thankfully it's cooling down a bit after today. But will end up being 23-25C every day till the next batch of heat arrives 
Jiries
25 June 2023 10:50:17
Originally Posted by: Zubzero 

I've had enough of the heat all ready. 
Last night was very muggy. It's 27C atm,and another warm night in store. And as you say any cooler unsettled options keep getting pushed back. Thankfully it's cooling down a bit after today. But will end up being 23-25C every day till the next batch of heat arrives 



had enough of the quickie failed heat set up.  looking for a proper British heatwave with slow rise to low 30's. so hope July deliver it like last year August heatwave which was the best one for summer 2022.  Quickie heat don't float my boat.  Today supposed to be hot and sunny 28C or more but not forecast clouds interfering very early this morning.   
cultman1
25 June 2023 11:54:37
29 here in fulham at 1pm but cloud building 
Joe Bloggs
25 June 2023 19:36:08
That’s quite the pressure gradient for early July! 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMHDOPEU12_168_1.png 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Jiries
25 June 2023 19:57:00
Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

That’s quite the pressure gradient for early July! 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMHDOPEU12_168_1.png 



Those type of LP would easily move away fast and summer resumes quickly than slack lows that can stay for weeks non-stop.    Likely to change by the time next Sunday, app shown 10 days of 20-22C and no rain but sunny spells days and few sunny ones.
Joe Bloggs
25 June 2023 20:12:13
Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Those type of LP would easily move away fast and summer resumes quickly than slack lows that can stay for weeks non-stop.    Likely to change by the time next Sunday, app shown 10 days of 20-22C and no rain but sunny spells days and few sunny ones.



I think the low is being overblown by the MetO model - it will probably be shallower come the time. I’d be surprised if we had a full on Autumnal low with gales. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

ozone_aurora
25 June 2023 20:14:57
Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

That’s quite the pressure gradient for early July! 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMHDOPEU12_168_1.png 


Yes, I remember the one that occurred in July 1998 that was similar to above. July 1998 was cool and miserable, but yet surprisingly dry for many areas.
David M Porter
26 June 2023 08:28:39
It seems to me that the models are still unsure, at least to some extent, about how the low to the N/NW will behave as we head into next week. Some op runs have shown it to gradually move south-east over the British Isles with a northerly flow in its wake, whereas others have kept it in place to the north while gradually declining.

Until the behaviour of this low is resolved one way or another, we won't really have any proper idea as to how long this unsettled spell will likely last for.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
johncs2016
26 June 2023 12:48:46
Given the more unsettled outlook which has been showing up on the latest model output not just for the end of this month, but also for the month of July (not to mention what tends to happen in August during most years these days), I am rather impressed by the fact that this hasn't led to any "summer is over" posts on here so far, and not even any posts which suggest that this might now be "it" for our "summer".

Of course, if the same thing happened during the winter with the model output showing a milder outlook after a cold winter up until that point, there would no doubt at least be one "winter is over" post on here as a result.

I think a lot of that though has to do with the fact that the planet is warming up which in turn rather distorts the effects of more or less settled spells of weather on the temperature at differing times of the year due to the fact that the temperature will usually be above the long term average for the vast majority of the time.

If it was the case that the weather was going to be cooler for the rest of this summer with the temperature never climbing above average, there would be case for saying that's it for our summer even if we are still a long way from summer actually being over in terms of the date on our calendar.

Under this modern era of ongoing climate change though, even our most unsettled spells in summer are more likely to be average or above average in terms of the temperature rather than below whilst it becomes even hotter during our summer heatwaves. Since one of the conditions for a "decent" summer is that it should be warmer than average overall, this reduces the risk of any "summer is over" posts on here due to the fact that there is still a chance of it being warmer than average even if it is more unsettled which means that summer can't therefore be really "over".

In the winter though, it is a different story because even in cold weather, it doesn't really get as cold as it used to get. Milder spells on the other hand, tend to be even milder than they used to be with even some relatively cold spells seeing temperatures which are actually no lower than average.

This enhances the number of "winter is over" posts which you might get because one of the conditions which make up a decent winter is that it should be colder than average and that is not likely to be the case if the models are now pointing to a milder pattern.

The overall effect of all of this is that the number of "winter is over" posts on here are always going to vastly outnumber the number of "summer is over" posts on here even if we didn't also have the situation on place where this forum is usually always much busier during the winter than that is during the summer which further enhances that anomaly.

From that, I can therefore fully understand why we haven't had any "summer is over" posts on here so far, despite the latest model output.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Taylor1740
26 June 2023 13:36:50
That 6z would make for a very cool first half of July (relative to average) If it came off like that (which it won't).
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Saint Snow
26 June 2023 15:22:59
Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

It seems to me that the models are still unsure, at least to some extent, about how the low to the N/NW will behave as we head into next week. Some op runs have shown it to gradually move south-east over the British Isles with a northerly flow in its wake, whereas others have kept it in place to the north while gradually declining.

Until the behaviour of this low is resolved one way or another, we won't really have any proper idea as to how long this unsettled spell will likely last for.



Yep. I've been monitoring it closely for next weekend over the past several days. It's a consistent signal for there to be a low enveloped in cold air moving generally eastwards. Up until yesterday, GFS were the most bullish about bringing it on a more SE'ly trajectory and over the UK with GEM not far behind, and UKM similar trajectory but filling the low more. ECM was keeping it further away and the ridging AH more influential over more of the UK.

ECM has since drifted a slight bit, to bring it further south; UKM has stiffened the low to extend its influence. GEM quite consistent. GFS is now the model showing the low filling and having least influence southwards.

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Aneurin Bevan
Ally Pally Snowman
27 June 2023 05:35:04
Just some hints of heat returning in about 10 days this morning.  As the omnipresent high pressure finally dissipates and drifts north allowing more of a southerly to develop.  Very early days though. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
27 June 2023 05:40:39
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Just some hints of heat returning in about 10 days this morning.  As the omnipresent high pressure finally dissipates and drifts north allowing more of a southerly to develop.  Very early days though. 
 



And need them not push back and come forward as soon as possible as now very boring set up that will waste potential high summer season.
Downpour
27 June 2023 08:58:41
Let's hope the 6z has this nailed. Moves the second low away to the NW pulling up warmer air by midweek next week. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Ally Pally Snowman
27 June 2023 09:02:43
Originally Posted by: Downpour 

Let's hope the 6z has this nailed. Moves the second low away to the NW pulling up warmer air by midweek next week. 



It's the 0z but yes probably a best case scenario.  It does look like an uninspiring first week of July. Poor even in the NW.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Downpour
27 June 2023 09:38:39
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

It's the 0z but yes probably a best case scenario.  It does look like an uninspiring first week of July. Poor even in the NW.
 



Apologies, I meant the 0z. No doubt some hope casting on my part as I'm on holiday in the north w/e of 7 July.

However, the run is not without support – GEM has a similar evolution. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
moomin75
27 June 2023 10:48:08
6z GFS lifts the UK trough away from us around day 10 then looks to be setting up a hot spell.
Possible new trend or outlier?
Time will tell, but I don't think the unsettled and cool spell will last too long.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Downpour
27 June 2023 10:48:26
And it's variations on a theme from the 6z... pulls the parent low away to the NE midweek next week, the secondary low then just spins around offshore to the west, pulling up warm air from the south w/e of 8 July...
Chingford
London E4
147ft
fairweather
27 June 2023 11:33:42
Looks hot again here midweek for a couple of days then pleasant around average July temps with little prospect of rain still for the foreseeable to ease the drought situation.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
27 June 2023 13:11:13
Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Looks hot again here midweek for a couple of days then pleasant around average July temps with little prospect of rain still for the foreseeable to ease the drought situation.



Thursday looks far from pleasant down your way. GFS 6z op has highs of 15c and light rain. Meto has it slightly warmer at 17c but with more rain.
The French and Japanese models both agree on over 10mm of rain and temps in the teens all day too.   
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