Well the output all round this morning is poor. No escaping a week or two of unsettled conditions by the look of it.
 

yes I expect it will just be a week or two though and then back to hot and dry going by how recent Summers have been and the general pattern we seem to be in.

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yes I expect it will just be a week or two though and then back to hot and dry going by how recent Summers have been and the general pattern we seem to be in.

This morning's ECM had high pressure reasserting itself over the UK by day 15. Still along way out but we live in hope.
 

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This morning's ECM had high pressure reasserting itself over the UK by day 15. Still along way out but we live in hope.
 

I really don't think it will be as bad as some are intimating.
Yes, it looks nailed on that we are in for an unsettled and cooler spell, perhaps for a week or so, but unlike the hellish Summers of 2007, 2012 etc, the Azores High does appear to be quite ridgy in nature this year and I remain optimistic that after a shortish spell of cool and wet, things will recover.

We can't expect 3 months solid of wall to wall sunshine and temps in the 80s after all is said and done.

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I really don't think it will be as bad as some are intimating.
Yes, it looks nailed on that we are in for an unsettled and cooler spell, perhaps for a week or so, but unlike the hellish Summers of 2007, 2012 etc, the Azores High does appear to be quite ridgy in nature this year and I remain optimistic that after a shortish spell of cool and wet, things will recover.

We can't expect 3 months solid of wall to wall sunshine and temps in the 80s after all is said and done.

You need to write off the rest of Summer that normally helps 😁

I think it might be a bit of a longer unsettled spell as the low pressure looks significant when it moves in . 2 or 3 weeks maybe.  Hope I'm wrong. 

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https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_150_1.png 

Yes this is about as bad as it gets for our part of the world. YUCK! 

The SE should fair a lot better .

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You need to write off the rest of Summer that normally helps 😁

I think it might be a bit of a longer unsettled spell as the low pressure looks significant when it moves in . 2 or 3 weeks maybe.  Hope I'm wrong. 

😂😂 Sorry, but on this occasion, I can't bring myself to write the summer off...
I honestly think things will look a good deal better next week. A spell of 7-10 days perhaps, but improving later.

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😂😂 Sorry, but on this occasion, I can't bring myself to write the summer off...
I honestly think things will look a good deal better next week. A spell of 7-10 days perhaps, but improving later.

Based on the idea that what you predict is often the opposite of what eventually happens, plus the Solway observation in another post, I'm not optimistic for my visit in a weeks time to that part of the UK. ⛈

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The ECM regimes have blocking returning by mid July, the ECM extended range also shows high pressure again building across the UK after the 1st week in July, Hovmoller forecasts are also showing this. It might not happen but there are signals there of the weather recovering after the 1st week in July.

A vastly improved ECM 12Z at least for the early to middle part of next week.
I think that we won't end up anywhere near as cool and unsettled as first thought.

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Another optimistic ECM this morning.  With the low pressure staying between Iceland and Scotland.  Southern England in particular stays mainly fine.
 

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NOTE; I'm away for the next week and will not be posting here until Mon 3rd. Anyone and everyone else is welcome to post and fill any perceived gap.

WX temps; week 1, comfortably warm across NW Europe, above average in the SW, below in the east and cool (though not unusually so) in N Scotland and Norway. Week 2, cooler for NW Europe incl Britain and very much so for Scandinavia, Russia warming up and quite hot along the Med to the Black Sea. For rainfall, a broad area of not-too-intense rain from Britain across the Baltic to W Russia in week 1, but in week 2 rain is more general and heavier for all of W Europe.

GFS Op; current HP weakening and gradually allowing a trough to cross Britain, cleared away by Tue 27th, then a brief spell of W-lies under the control of LP near Iceland deepening to 975mb Wed 28th. This LP moves SE-wards to Scotland 995mb Sat 1st and then develops into a trough from Norway to Cornwall before retreating NE-wards Thu 6th. A short rise of pressure, but a shallow LP is back from the NW to 1005mb E Anglia Sun 9th

ECM; agrees with GFS to Wed 28th, but the LP then fills while staying near the Faeroes, and sending NW-lies across Britain at least to Tue 4th.

GEFS; in the S/SW, current warmth soon disappearing, and the temps (with not much spread of ens members) bump along close to or a little below average. Good chance of rain for a few days around Sun 2nd, very little before that and not much after. Elsewhere temp profile similar but rain is persistent and moderate amounts are forecast for most days, heaviest in the N.

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Don't forget that sst off the west coast are 4C above normal. No way can we get chilly and awful weather from that. 🙂 

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A more traditional pattern emerging for a while. It will probably take until Thursday to get some rain to the far SE. Temperatures will probably still be maxing at 23-24c down here until then. 

Longer term its looking like more of a SW/NE split. Higher pressure to the SW bringing in a more WNW'ly flow. Cooler temperatures, risk of showers, increased cloudiness. 



 

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Don't forget that sst off the west coast are 4C above normal. No way can we get chilly and awful weather from that. 🙂 

Aggressive cloud cover can cap those temperatures like today touted warm and sunny weather failed, mostly cloudy and cooler than forecasted.  

Don't forget that sst off the west coast are 4C above normal. No way can we get chilly and awful weather from that. 🙂 

 I wouldn't underestimate the misery that a low pressure system and strong westerly winds can inflict on the Northern parts of the country especially away from the most sheltered eastern parts. 

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I wouldn't underestimate the misery that a low pressure system and strong westerly winds can inflict on the Northern parts of the country especially away from the most sheltered eastern parts. 

👍

I'm very focused on this weekend. GFS and GEM both push the low further south over more of the UK, whereas ECM keeps it further north (and moves it further east) and MetOffice fills the low a little to weaken it. 

Looking at what drives the difference, both GFS and GEM ridge a 'Siberian' high over Svalbard and toward Greenland. This drives the low underneath it on a more southerly trajectory. MetOffice hadn't really bought into this until today, and the 12z brings it more in line with GFS/GEM in that respect. Not good, but it does continue to show the low slacker. ECM is digging it's heels in, though, making much less of the high to our north and do keeping the ridging AH influence over much more of the UK. 

Here's hoping ECM is correct. 

 

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The models still have a changeable look to them but maybe a little more settled the further SE you go??

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Yes ECM is not to bad for the SE again .  But it's not great for anywhere else. Looks like 4 or 5 more decent days here at least then unsettled. Would be nice if the models start showing a way out of the unsettled spell soon but at the moment it not there.
 

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Yes ECM is not to bad for the SE again .  But it's not great for anywhere else. Looks like 4 or 5 more decent days here at least then unsettled. Would be nice if the models start showing a way out of the unsettled spell soon but at the moment it not there.
 

I was wondering about that. I was just hoping that this was a 10 day blip and then the nice stuff comes back.
 

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I was wondering about that. I was just hoping that this was a 10 day blip and then the nice stuff comes back.
 

The nice stuff only lasted a couple of days, then it was back to hot (or very hot) and sunny and dry.

The upcoming nice stuff keeps getting watered down, unsurprisingly, with perhaps some rain on Thursday now. I won't be holding my breath, as the 95% sun and drought summer continues unabated!

That is, of course, for my little corner of England. Further north it does look like becoming more seasonable for a time.

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