I hadn't realised it was on the actual TV forecast as well. I saw the apps were out of whack.

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Meanwhile in the real world definite signs of a warm up, Maybe high 20s by next weekend?

that is bonkers!! I didn’t realise that either!

---

GEM 12z has high pressure completely back in charge by next weekend.  UKMO looks to be heading the same way. GFS still has the low coming back but its better than it has been. So not a bad set of 12s so far.
 

---

ECM 12z is disgusting!

ECM 12z is disgusting!

Just Horrible. 
Let's hope the GEM 12z op which is hot even up north by next weekend is closer to reality.
 

Well the 0z ECM is much better . High pressure becoming dominant again by day 8. Hot in the South.  GEM similar. 

---

Well the 0z ECM is much better . High pressure becoming dominant again by day 8. Hot in the South.  GEM similar. 

Several runs have shown this resolution now, from various models. So, while unsettled remains the form horse, a drier, warmer evolution cannot be discounted. 

---

Several runs have shown this resolution now, from various models. So, while unsettled remains the form horse, a drier, warmer evolution cannot be discounted. 

Yes it's a growing theme but no guarantees yet.

The heat to the south especially on the ECM is brutal 30c+ 850s for Spain . If we do get a plume its going to get very hot here.
 

---

Yes it's a growing theme but no guarantees yet.

The heat to the south especially on the ECM is brutal 30c+ 850s for Spain . If we do get a plume its going to get very hot here.
 

Hope so while the daylight hours are at the near max, don't want any boring cold unsettled weather wasting this time of the year.  The brutal heat have to go somewhere at some point, that to the UK but if this going to happen I would like a proper rise to the hottest peak with many sunny days unlike last year July set up.

The 6z GFS has one of the most remarkable early July forecasts (for my part of Kent) that I've ever seen - the odds of this coming off must be less than 0.1%.



It's all due to the little secondary low that zips across SE England, deepening as it goes. Genuine gales and 10C at 12z in July? Unheard of, I'd suggest, at least away from the tops of the Scottish mountains!

---

00z ECM clusters are poor, pretty much low dominated right the way through. Op was an outlier.

The unsettled blip around the 5th shows up well on the GEFS. 

GEFS also show some support for a warmup around next weekend, and GEM and ECM both look pretty toasty by day 8-10

---

Really hope the GEM is right on the nose with next weekend, the last two runs have been remarkably similar with hot conditions all the way up to the north of Scotland.  

Really hope the GEM is right on the nose with next weekend, the last two runs have been remarkably similar with hot conditions all the way up to the north of Scotland.  

I reckon this will verify.
 

---

Really hope the GEM is right on the nose with next weekend, the last two runs have been remarkably similar with hot conditions all the way up to the north of Scotland.  

I am too, but the GEM tends to be the least reliable of the three models, so I'm not holding my breath yet.

Still the GFS and ECM seem to be trending towards a general improvement in the weather by next weekend (that suits me as I'm off work the WC the 10th). Some runs seem to be hinting at bit of a Spanish plume situation too, so maybe some thundery potential too?

---

The 6z GFS has one of the most remarkable early July forecasts (for my part of Kent) that I've ever seen - the odds of this coming off must be less than 0.1%.

It's all due to the little secondary low that zips across SE England, deepening as it goes. Genuine gales and 10C at 12z in July? Unheard of, I'd suggest, at least away from the tops of the Scottish mountains!

...and quelle surprise, the 12z run is just 10C warmer at the same time!  🤣

Normal service has been resumed. (And it's good to see this kind of stuff doesn't just happen in winter, with heavy snow "poofing" between runs...)

---

Decent set of 0z this morning.  Especially the GEM again . GEM control is basically 1976 redux. Even GFS has 30c for next Saturday but it's still more unsettled than the rest.
 

---

ECM probably the least settled this morning annoyingly. Still gives the hot weekend though. 

---

ECM probably the least settled this morning annoyingly. Still gives the hot weekend though. 

To be honest I’m more bothered by the max of 13 over the coming days than a max of 20°C a week away here.

This is not a very summery looking picture: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_42_1.png 

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

 

 

---

To be honest I’m more bothered by the max of 13 over the coming days than a max of 20°C a week away here.

This is not a very summery looking picture: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_42_1.png 

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

 

 

Was in Scotland at Glencoe area and was pleasant 18-22C days 24C highest when passing Glasgow,  Once this silly Autumn Low out of the way there huge HP to the west to move in and bring the warm to hot weather by the weekend as HP move east. 

GFS ensembles are all over the place after Friday. Difficult to give an exact forecast before closer to the time, UK on a boundary between warm and unsettled. FWIW, the ECM clusters last night were pretty awful with low pressure over or around the UK out until the end of its run right through week 2. Let's see what they bring this morning.