Boxing Day snow on the GFS 18z tonight.

Mediocre synoptics but they often deliver snow events for these parts.  I remember many a cold spells like this one that turn out so so dry.

---

The only firm conclusion to the weather models post Sunday’s mild interlude, is that the pattern seems to be a bit more mobile and less blocked. The amplified jet is shown to deliver cold snaps as a result.

Just hints at the end of the run about the potential for the Azores high to conjoin with the vestigial Greenland high. The frequent cold snaps seems to have few notes of 1982/3  about it: if it happens like the GFS flip flopping output tonight.

---

A number of people on Twitter are saying the precipitation isn't reaching the ground. 

Yes Brian- I agree - radar(s) showed Exeter area in the precipitation but I kept looking out and nothing fell from sky at the whole day 1c - . I just saw high alto-stratus clouds . So perhaps the precipitation was evaporating as it fell but radar doesnt pick up on this is my guess?

A dusting/trace of snow here in Okehampton this evening but nothing more.

---

i need a polar maritime nwly to deliver in these parts or perhaps a central belt funnel easterly

---

If this mornings gfs is right, I give it a week or so before 10 hpa charts start getting posted. 

What a horrible set of charts this morning. 
Can't say I'm surprised.
The sooner this damp squib of a cold spell is gone the better in my neck of the woods.
Days on end of dank, cold, grey, miserable skies. Hardly a speck of snow, let alone a covering. 
It's been a zero out of ten IMBY.
I daresay it'll be back to chasing FI charts now, but the outlook for most looks mild and wet.
 

---

Not much change in terms of the ensemble data this morning. Still looks like a cold dip, rather than plunge, is likely next week. I'd be surprised if there isn't some snow in parts of the north. Obviously much less likely in the south. 

---

Well that was a weird spell of model watching. For a few hours all the models seemed to suggest that a return to cold was on, and now they’ve all dropped the idea. Wonder what caused that little blip!

---

What a horrible set of charts this morning. 
Can't say I'm surprised.
The sooner this damp squib of a cold spell is gone the better in my neck of the woods.
Days on end of dank, cold, grey, miserable skies. Hardly a speck of snow, let alone a covering. 
It's been a zero out of ten IMBY.
I daresay it'll be back to chasing FI charts now, but the outlook for most looks mild and wet.
 

Same here 0 out of 10 and counting down to see this crap bone dry cloudy foggy less cold spell end on Sunday and heating will be very little use or off to rapidly slow down so not to exceed my £92 monthly as now near £60. 

Let try again on the models in the early new year for another better snowy real cold set up. My colleague from Estonia said this cold spell is crap and too dry all the time compare to his homeland.

Not much change in terms of the ensemble data this morning. Still looks like a cold dip, rather than plunge, is likely next week. I'd be surprised if there isn't some snow in parts of the north. Obviously much less likely in the south. 

We can try again in the early new year chances for real snowy chances for everyone?

I’ve been in this game for long enough to accept the atmosphere can make mugs of the best of us, and increasing accuracy and computer firepower makes little difference. I tend to focus on the short term detail these days and let the wider themes take care of themselves because if you invest too much effort in out-guessing the weather in 15 days time you’re setting yourself up for a fall.
Having said that the NWP made a decent effort two weeks before the current cold spell so credit for that. Don’t worry too much about the MJO, AO or Ally Ally Oh - instead just go ‘with the flow’ and see what happens. 
And may I be the first to say, ‘over two months of winter to go get’? 😂

---

Well that was a weird spell of model watching. For a few hours all the models seemed to suggest that a return to cold was on, and now they’ve all dropped the idea. Wonder what caused that little blip!

Based on such movements can we realistically expect to know what they will show in a few more hours? P17 to end the year or P22  of this morning’s GFS ensemble runs?

---

Looks like the weather Gods have hit the zonal re-set button this morning.

We could be in for a wet and windy Christmas & New Year. Consistent indications of a pressure build to our South, looks rather ominous. 

More runs needed as ever though. Christmas is still a long way off in meteorological terms. 
​​​​​

---

I hope I'm wrong, but I see the traditional sine wave on the ensembles setting up.

---

Based on such movements can we realistically expect to know what they will show in a few more hours? P17 to end the year or P22  of this morning’s GFS ensemble runs?

That’s a fair point, and although even in solidly zonal outlooks there’s always the odd blocky easterly in the extended, we’re told the mechanisms are conducive for more blocking this winter so flipping and flopping may well continue for the foreseeable.

---

The ensemble data doesn't look that much different this morning. When I looked at it 24 hours ago I concluded that next week would be cold at times, especially in the north where there was a risk of snow. The chance of cold weather becoming established was ~20%. I think a few of the 12z deterministic runs caught some people out.  


 


GEFS 

---

Now you see it, now you don't - at least Christmas travel shouldn't be disrupted over and above difficulties caused by strikes.

Back to the charts: WX temps milder than yesterday but the cold hasn't gone away entirely. Week 1, retreating to a line from Scotland to Germany. Week 2, to the E of Poland with a tiny blob over the Highlands. Significantly milder for England and the Baltic, colder in Ukraine and Turkey. Week 1 pptn for Atlantic coasts incl Britain; ditto for week 2 but more of it. 

GFS Op: light N-lies with cold air hanging on to Sat 17th from shallow LP over the Baltic. By Mon 19th Britain under strong S-lies between LP 985 mb W Ireland and HP 1040 mb Belarus. As the LP moves over to Norway N-lies make a brief return before reloads Sat 24th LP 970mb Rockall and HP 1030mb Germany, more SW-ly this time, and again on Wed 28th 935mb SW of Iceland and 1030 mb Austria

ECM: similar to GFS but LP Tue 20th deeper and closer (970mb Hebrides as it passes by heading for Norway) as does FAX

GEFS: suddenly milder on Sun 18th with rain, both rain and mild temp lasting a few days before a dip to cold, mean resuming near norm from Fri 23rd, a range of ens members on either side some of which continue damp. Still some snow in the far N of Scotland for this week. 

MetO https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/maps-and-charts/uk-weather-map  has a remarkable colour wash of temps spreading up from the SW if showing temps on Sunday.

Meteo Group (BBC Stav Danaos) hedging his bets by hinting at the return of cold weather later.

---

Why is there a link to Meta and Ethiopia in the MetO bit?

I’ve been in this game for long enough to accept the atmosphere can make mugs of the best of us, and increasing accuracy and computer firepower makes little difference. I tend to focus on the short term detail these days and let the wider themes take care of themselves because if you invest too much effort in out-guessing the weather in 15 days time you’re setting yourself up for a fall.
Having said that the NWP made a decent effort two weeks before the current cold spell so credit for that. Don’t worry too much about the MJO, AO or Ally Ally Oh - instead just go ‘with the flow’ and see what happens. 
And may I be the first to say, ‘over two months of winter to go get’? 😂

you have made an error someone will correct you to say winter doesn’t start until 21st December 😂

What a horrible set of charts this morning. 
Can't say I'm surprised.
The sooner this damp squib of a cold spell is gone the better in my neck of the woods.
Days on end of dank, cold, grey, miserable skies. Hardly a speck of snow, let alone a covering. 
It's been a zero out of ten IMBY.
I daresay it'll be back to chasing FI charts now, but the outlook for most looks mild and wet.
 

sad to hear Kieron. It does look like those who called this spell as dry for most will be proved right. The very heavy fall we have had here is extremely localised. Shame we couldn’t have seen something more widespread. 

---