UKV has snow flirting with southern coastal counties for a time tonight.



 

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Looks quite good for cold  / snow in the northern half of the UK next week. More mixed and uncertain in the south. 

Plenty to keep the coldies interested and the meter ticking on the website Brian 😎
A skeg at the GEFS and there’s some right doozies on there. 

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UKV has snow flirting with southern coastal counties for a time tonight.



 

The current radar looks more active for the southern counties currently that that graphic. Admittedly that’s for later and this is now

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Plenty to keep the coldies interested and the meter ticking on the website Brian 😎
A skeg at the GEFS and there’s some right doozies on there. 

😅 Best thing at the moment would be to keep the Christmas Day ball in play as long as possible. 

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ECM 12Z goes mammatus verticus and shows what can go wrong.
What looks like a good setup for a northerly blast is quickly blown away by a return of the southwesterlies.

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ECM 12z not joining the cold party . 

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The current radar looks more active for the southern counties currently that that graphic. Admittedly that’s for later and this is now

A number of people on Twitter are saying the precipitation isn't reaching the ground. 

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A number of people on Twitter are saying the precipitation isn't reaching the ground. 

Yep you can see the precipitation being wrung out the front as it slowly edges inland

ECM 12Z goes mammatus verticus and shows what can go wrong.
What looks like a good setup for a northerly blast is quickly blown away by a return of the southwesterlies.

Its not great on the face of it but the pattern doesn’t look too bad, it’s still quite amplified. 

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GFS 12z ensembles starting to unravel a bit more. The cold after the weekend mild spell increasing in confidence, the length of it not, with much uncertainty remaining for the Christmas period and beyond.

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ECM 12Z goes mammatus verticus and shows what can go wrong.
What looks like a good setup for a northerly blast is quickly blown away by a return of the southwesterlies.

Annoying, certainly. But does it command much support? Not sure it does (at this stage at least).

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I think it's worth us all remembering as well that a week or so ago, there seemed at one stage to be fairly good agreement among the models on the current cold spell coming to an end either yesterday or today, and we know what then happened.

What happens beyond the weekend and early next week seems very much up in the air. It could be the once the milder air comes in on Sunday, it thens sticks around for a few days. This looked to be the case a few days back, but there seems to be some doubt over how long the milder spell lasts for, going by todays' runs.

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SKL suggesting return to colder weather by tuesday but ‘not as cold’ 

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18Z GFS not quite going for the prolonged cold spell at this stage. 

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A number of people on Twitter are saying the precipitation isn't reaching the ground. 

I've just driven through what the radar says is a patch of precipitation - and it wasn't.

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Gosh. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_264_1.png 

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I think it's worth us all remembering as well that a week or so ago, there seemed at one stage to be fairly good agreement among the models on the current cold spell coming to an end either yesterday or today, and we know what then happened.

What happens beyond the weekend and early next week seems very much up in the air. It could be the once the milder air comes in on Sunday, it thens sticks around for a few days. This looked to be the case a few days back, but there seems to be some doubt over how long the milder spell lasts for, going by todays' runs.

Spot on, David.

It is also worth remembering that the cold spell didn’t arrive as cleanly or quickly as originally forecast either. Then there’s the small matter of charts that were showing ‘bone dry for most people’ also turning out to be anything but.

When there’s this much uncertainty in the ensembles it’s obvious that the evolution beyond the immediate pattern change is far from clear.  Even the nature of the pattern change has changed over the last 2-3 days.  Those pesky short wave developments can have significant effects.

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Boxing Day snow on the GFS 18z tonight.

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L

Gosh. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_264_1.png 

what a shambles. A few hours ago they were opening the champagne over on netweather. Like watching Harry Kane take a penalty 

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I think a warm up now looks near certain from Sunday but it’s less clear what happens from midweek next week. Cool but not cold probably the safest bet. 

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