With the Atlantic hurricane season warming up , and a warning from Elizabeth Rizzini as duty forecaster on the BBC this morning that forecasts are going to be uncertain over the next week, there should be an interesting period of chart watching coming up ...

WX temp summary: W Europe hanging on to quite warm weather over the next two weeks, perhaps a little cooler than yesterday's forecast, while cool/cold air well established from the Urals across to Poland and N Scandinavia. Rain in week 1 from Britain through France to the Balkans, in week 2 still damp in these areas and more showing in W Russia.

Jet - loops settling W of Ireland Sun 4th and Wed 14th, breaking up with streaks mostly near S Britain in between

GFS Op - LP establishing W of Ireland Sun 4th 995mb slowly filling and moving E on Friday while one hurricane appears well to the SW Sat 3rd, gradually moving towards Britain, while another appears closer to US coast Fri 9th. The first of these transforms into a 'normal' depression 985mb Ireland Mon 12th whilst the other continues with storm force winds towards Greenland, eventually getting absorbed in the Atlantic circulation and contributing to a large LP 985mb Rockall Sat 17th.

GEFS - mean temp near norm, not too many outliers, through to 17th, perhaps a little warmer to start with, quite a lot of rain mainly either side of Wed 7th (front-loaded in the W), and a lesser batch around the 14th

ECM - treats the first ex-hurricane differently, allowing it to drift N and fill somewhat before heading for the SW Approaches 990mb Sun 11th. The second hurricane doesn't appear at all.

Interesting.

Today's ICON is remarkable.

That thing is a hurricane nearing Europe.

Not hurricane force winds, an actual real hurricane.

I mean, okay yeah it already looks to be starting an extratropical transition and may not be a hurricane for much longer. Still crazy though, although not quite unprecedented. Hurricane Pablo managed to get roughly here a few years back.

At least these  hurricanes will keep things warm! We need them to stall out west

The hurricane on the GFS6z. I've posted what I think is its 'last hour' as in, after this it will have completed its extratropical transition. Even so, look how close it is to the UK while still being a hurricane:

The hurricane on the GFS6z. I've posted what I think is its 'last hour' as in, after this it will have completed its extratropical transition. Even so, look how close it is to the UK while still being a hurricane:

 

Its only a matter of time before an official one hits us, lets hope its not this year

GEFS all over the place, another "hurricane" hits the Azores on this one

 

Its only a matter of time before an official one hits us, lets hope its not this year

 

Tbh I think it would be more of a meterological omg than something we should actually worry about.

If a hurricane ever does hit the UK it will be cat 1 and the strong winds will be in places fairly used to it. In the UK hurricane force winds happen every few years anyway; a Cat1 briefly producing hurricane force winds before rapidly transitioning or dying inland will still be an impressive weather event but not the most extreme in terms of wind strength.

GEFS all over the place, another "hurricane" hits the Azores on this one

You don't need the speech marks. That is a plain hurricane!

It isn't quite unheard of in the azors, but is still pretty rare. Ophelia came close a few years back as a cat3!

Incidentally even a TS or TD hitting the UK would be a first.

Unless, like me, you believe TS grace (2009) still had tropical characturistics when landfalling (it obviously did, shame on you NHC)

There are some crazy ensembles.

P27

I don't think this is quite a hurricane, it feels like its completed its transition. But jesus, this is about as close as I've ever seen a hurricane hit the UK mere 6 hours maybe after transition.

Wow GEM gets damn close.

Hurricane here:

Extratropical here:

GEM at 192 shows what a hurricane nearly transitioned looks like.

Clear frontal system but the warm core (just SW of occluded front) is still there. This becomes a seclusion by 198h and transition complete.

TD 5 quickly upgraded to Tropical Storm Danielle https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ I mentioned last week that the Saharan dust was settling down and that thr tropics would awake. Seems that is strating to happen.

Holy moly.

Portugal/Spain TC!

Again not entirely unprecedented. Has happened twice, inc most recently in 2020 with subtropical storm alpha

Even so. Wow!

At least these  hurricanes will keep things warm! We need them to stall out west

Last year they did gave us a 30C heat in September and hope we get it again to top up my indoor temps, was rather cool 21.5 to 22C when I got home from work because shutters was opened for 2 nights so now reach back to 23-24C thanks to warm sunshine.   Those ex Hurricane often stalled in the west before moving in later and also helped to push the lazy AZ high over us, always want to sit in the SW of us for no reason.

 

Tbh I think it would be more of a meterological omg than something we should actually worry about.

If a hurricane ever does hit the UK it will be cat 1 and the strong winds will be in places fairly used to it. In the UK hurricane force winds happen every few years anyway; a Cat1 briefly producing hurricane force winds before rapidly transitioning or dying inland will still be an impressive weather event but not the most extreme in terms of wind strength.

 

Hurricane Ophelia reached Ireland in 2018(except it wasn't still a hurricane, of course). Now, I'm at a location that is "fairly used to it" but I can assure you that Ophelia was a nasty event. And if Ophelia was nasty, I certainly wouldn't be blasé about a real hurricane reaching us, category 1 or not.

Until the jet fires up and starts pushing mobile fronts through at regular intervals the outlook is still a relatively dry and warm one for the eastern half of Britain. Aberdeenshire coast excepted.

Any showers continue to look hit and miss over Eastern Britain. 

Until the jet fires up and pushing mobile fronts through at regular intervals the outlook is still a relatively dry one for the eastern half of Britain. Any showers continue to look hit and miss here. 

 

If recent times are a good guide then I would suggest that for most the showers will be miss and miss. 

WX temps charts show the cooler air which is still waiting at the Polish border in week 1 finally making a move on W Europe, and in week 2 only England and W France are just hanging on to some warmth (and the Med is still hot, of course). A lot of rain for the Atlantic fringes of the British Isles week 1, stretching patchily across C Europe, replaced by a heavier and continuous band from France (just touching S Britain) to Hungary.

Jet - a loop forming W of Ireland tomorrow, decaying but strong enough to draw in the two ex-hurricanes as they weaken over the next week or so. Suggestion of a new loop forming over Britain Sun 18th . 

GFS Op - LP 1005 mb Ireland tomorrow (and a larger one over W Russia) hanging around while Hurricane (ex TS Danielle presumably ) edges closer from mid-Atlantic. By Fri 9th the original LP has crossed to E England, making a link with the LP in Russia, and Danielle has been joined by another hurricane from the SW so there is a continuous trough of LP from the Carolina coast to W Russia. The two hurricanes start interacting but weakening and result in a general area of LP 1000mb Brittany Wed 14th. A brief rise of pressure is then followed by LP out of Newfoundland reaching N Ireland 1000mb Sun 18th.

GEFS - for all the above mean temp is remarkably stable and close to norm with few significant outliers. Rain around throughout, most likely to be heavy in the middle of next week, a bit earlier in the west; and one or two ens members with spectacularly heavy falls in the W & N later on.

ECM - like GFS to Thu 8th then dramatically different. The local LP does move slowly across Britain but Danielle moves sharply N-wards to Greenland by Sat 10th allowing pressure to rise slowly over the British Isles before Danielle's remnants re-organise and approach Scotland from the NW Mon 12th. The second hurricane never makes an appearance.

A long time since I've seen ECM and GFS so different.