Until the jet fires up and starts pushing mobile fronts through at regular intervals the outlook is still a relatively dry and warm one for the eastern half of Britain. Aberdeenshire coast excepted.

Any showers continue to look hit and miss over Eastern Britain. 

 

Since the current unsettled spell first appeared the trend in the models has been to reduce the amount of any rainfall making it to our part of the world although just going on the ECM HR charts we do eventually see some noticeable rain by the end of Wednesday next week. Even then though we're still one of the driest spots and amounts aren't anything unusual. 

Personally I'd quite like some autumnal feeling days with cloud and rain, would make a change from relentless warm and dry if nothing else

A long time since I've seen ECM and GFS so different.

Which one will be right? Big differences in the outlook depending on which way it goes. The other possibility of course is a direct hit from an ex-hurricane which could be very interesting given the current warmth of our local waters. 

ICON0Z is insane. Hurricane hits France.

I don't think the possibility of a TC hitting Europe next week can be ignored.

Again while not quite unprecedented, this is an extrodinarily rare event. If a Hurricane (not an ex) hits the UK (or tbh even a TS) that will be comparable to the rarity of the 40C in the UK, arguably even more impressive.

A relatively warm and fairly dry outlook for the more populous half of the UK. Next weekend 9-11 Sep looking pretty good at this early juncture. Summer continues.

Looks like a brief weekend interlude before the Atlantic and its hurricanes force their way back in (and with all that unfocused energy on the Atlantic, I wouldn't pin my hopes too strongly on any forecast).

Make the most of the weekend!

 

Looks like a brief weekend interlude before the Atlantic and its hurricanes force their way back in (and with all that unfocused energy on the Atlantic, I wouldn't pin my hopes too strongly on any forecast).

Make the most of the weekend!

Warm weekend this weekend and warm weekend next weekend is the form horse. It could change of course, but that’s quite a summery outlook for the SE quadrant at least.

Pertubation 5 on GEFS6Z.

This is bonkers. Its difficult to tell whether this is still a TC but if it isn't it will have transitioned mere hours ago.

Let me repeat: We are starting to see some ensembles show a literal hurricane hit the british Isles or at least come very close.

Not an 'ex hurricane', not 'hurricane winds' but a real warm cored hot blooded hurricane.

Looks to me there are maybe 4 or so ensembles that show a transitioning TC hitting the british isles.

I think if this happens it may be more impressive than the 40C.

In terms of weather impacts, less so, albeit it will be pretty windy for a bit!

But meterologically speaking to see a named storm hit the UK is just insane.

In other news WRF spins up this which seems to have partial tropical characturistics in itself?!

In other news WRF spins up this which seems to have partial tropical characturistics in itself?!

 

I genuinely hope that if we do have a hurricane reach these shores that they bring Michael Fish out of retirement for a one off forecast special.

Looks to me there are maybe 4 or so ensembles that show a transitioning TC hitting the british isles.

I think if this happens it may be more impressive than the 40C.

 

In terms of weather impacts, less so, albeit it will be pretty windy for a bit!

But meterologically speaking to see a named storm hit the UK is just insane.

 

Wouldn't be the first time a tropical cyclone has hit our shores whilst transitioning.

 

Wouldn't be the first time a tropical cyclone has hit our shores whilst transitioning.

It would, there has never been a classified TC hitting the UK; in other words every TC has already finsihed its transition by the time it hits the UK. Note that a TC is still defined as a TC provided the transition has not finished.

I mean officially at least, I would dispute this with TS Grace (2009), but officially it is a true statement.

Edit: You might be thinking of Hurricane Debbie (1967), in recent years that has been declassified and was fully extratropical.

Several have got quite close though.

Ophelia and Pablo are notable recent examples. I think they may have even still been TCs while in UK territorial waters.

 

It would, there has never been a classified TC hitting the UK; in other words every TC has already finsihed its transition by the time it hits the UK. Note that a TC is still defined as a TC provided the transition has not finished.

I mean officially at least, I would dispute this with TS Grace (2009), but officially it is a true statement.

 

Edit: You might be thinking of Hurricane Debbie (1967), in recent years that has been declassified and was fully extratropical.

 

1967 was hurricane faith and that one didn't transition until it entered the north sea. It past over the fairo islands and kept just out to sea but close enough to Scotland to be classified as UK waters.  There have been others to.

 

1967 was hurricane faith and that one didn't transition until it entered the north sea. It past over the fairo islands and kept just out to sea but close enough to Scotland to be classified as UK waters.  There have been others to.

 

I think if we are talking about UK territorial waters, then the answer may well be yes, and you don't have to go back to 1967 to find examples. But a TC landfalling in the UK? No good evidence that has ever happened (though I believe it has, its just extrordinarily rare, kinda like 40C without climate change).

Also with storms like Faith and Debbie I'm skeptical (was debbie 63?), if they happened today they would probably have been declared extratropical later. Nevertheless neither storm landfalled in the british isles anyway.

So I think Grace was still a TC while in that extreme SW corner of UK/Ireland for example.

TS Danielle now upgraded to Hurricane Danielle.

A fair few GEFS bring Danielle across the UK, as what I will leave that to Q

Warm core clearly visible on this run as she approaches the Uk

 

I think if we are talking about UK territorial waters, then the answer may well be yes, and you don't have to go back to 1967 to find examples. But a TC landfalling in the UK? No good evidence that has ever happened (though I believe it has, its just extrordinarily rare, kinda like 40C without climate change).

Also with storms like Faith and Debbie I'm skeptical (was debbie 63?), if they happened today they would probably have been declared extratropical later. Nevertheless neither storm landfalled in the british isles anyway.

 

 

So I think Grace was still a TC while in that extreme SW corner of UK/Ireland for example.

 

Only a complete moron would believe that 40c was attainable in the UK without climate change,,,the lunatics are taking over the asylum...