Good riddance and glad to see the back of it. September might deliver more sunny days in between the rain times. Today really cold 18C and cloudy for no reason when it meant to be nice BH with low to mid 20's.

It has been here. Upper 20s on Saturday as well 

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WX temp charts show seasonal cooling down for Europe, the west holding on to the last of the summer warmth for week 1, but definitely cooler to the NE; and by week 2 any hot weather is only for the Mediterranean and Black Sea. Rain in week 1 in discrete areas - W Britain, Alps, W Russia - becoming more widespread and further S and E week 2.

GFS Op consistent with previous forecasts for this week; current HP declines and by Fri there is a shallow Trough down the W of Britain resolving into complex LP over Ireland 995mb by Mon 5th, slowly filling and moving to SE England Sat 10th. Then a general rise of pressure from the SW, pumped up by hurricane in mid-Atlantic (more intense than shown yesterday so maybe not 'ex') which however looks as if it will run N to Greenland Mon 12th, not W to Brittany.

GEFS mean temp near norm generally (a little above in S at first), rain from Sat 3rd at its most intense Mon 5th and in the S a secondary peak Mon 12th but not much of a let-up in the N. 

ECM similar to GFS (LP Mon 5th just W of Ireland rather than over it)

 

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Imagine this time next week, flood warnings for the prone western areas will be order of the day. Charts look a bit soggy

WX temps after toying with a cooling for W Europe are today showing warmth resurgent from the S for France and Britain in week 2 (what was that about a zombie summer - you just can't kill it). Cold air knocking on the door of Poland, cooler into Germany too. Rain fro Brtain across to the Alps in week 1 also shifted in week 2 to Baltic and Ukraine.

GFS Op - trough developing down W side of Uk on Fri turning into LP over SW Ireland Mon 5th 990 mb filling and moving E slowly over that week, as before; on Sat 10th not one but two hurricanes on Atlantic one heading for Spain and the other for Greenland with Britain enjoying weak HP by default, still there on Wed 14th but giving way to a repeat version of the trough down the W of Britain Fri 16th. But with hurricanes appearing on the Atlantic I wouldn't regard any forecast outcome as stable, they 'make their own weather'.

GEFS - on the warm side now (or delayed a day or two in Scotland), near norm to Wed 14th, hints of an uptick after that; rain plentiful from about Sat 3rd throughout (a little drier at end of forecast period for Scotland). 

ECM - 0z available to Wed 7th and fairly similar to GFS that far, though one of the hurricanes referred to has put in an early appearance, not sure where it's going. [have to go out now, may come back and edit later when 0z fully downloaded] EDIT The 'early' appearance hurricane appears to be one which develops mid-Atlantic, presumably the one shown on NHC with a 50% chance of development in 5 days, and it heads first for  Biscay and then swings NE 985mb C England Sat 10th. The second hurricane rather loses its way in mid-Atlantic but looks to be drifting N-wards as it fills.

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ECM - 0z available to Wed 7th and fairly similar to GFS that far, though one of the hurricanes referred to has put in an early appearance, not sure where it's going. [have to go out now, may come back and edit later when 0z fully downloaded]

To the UK via Spain/Portugal according to the 10 day chart!

Obviously at that fun time of the year where the FI swings are even more dramatic than usual as the models toy with where the energy ends up.

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To the UK via Spain/Portugal according to the 10 day chart!

Obviously at that fun time of the year where the FI swings are even more dramatic than usual as the models toy with where the energy ends up.

Very quiet here due to very boring weather now only weirdo Mark smithy and KTtom posting very boring weather set up while rest are gone. Most people like heat to snow events set up. Still warm this week and mild nights so keep warm indoors. Hope we get a regular heatwave in September at some point.

 

Very quiet here due to very boring weather now only weirdo Mark smithy and KTtom posting very boring weather set up while rest are gone. Most people like heat to snow events set up. Still warm this week and mild nights so keep warm indoors. Hope we get a regular heatwave in September at some point.

Not sure who the "weirdos" that you mention are. However, I think that this weekend could be interesting in so far as it may bring a definitive end to the drought in Western areas at least. A lot of rain here, I expect and in the West and North of the UK. I'm not certain that the South East will see all that much however.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=fax&model=fax

 

 

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Yeah, I'll bank the latest GFS run, the ECM can **** right off.  But we are coming up to the time of year where models and then the reality becomes much more volatile. 

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Yeah, I'll bank the latest GFS run, the ECM can **** right off.  But we are coming up to the time of year where models and then the reality becomes much more volatile. 

Arguably if it's the frontal kind of rain, it seems easier to predict the paths it will take. This summer where the rain will fall has been a nightmare to predict. 

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Arguably if it's the frontal kind of rain, it seems easier to predict the paths it will take. This summer where the rain will fall has been a nightmare to predict. 

Not so much the rain as we really need it big time at my neck of the wood, it's ECM's idea of 75 mph gusts along the Channel coast in the early hours that can sod off, way too soon for that.  Of course it's 10 days away and nowhere deterministic, etc. 

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Not sure who the "weirdos" that you mention are. 

 

 

However, I think that this weekend could be interesting in so far as it may bring a definitive end to the drought in Western areas at least

 

It's been a good summer here, overall, but we've never really had drought conditions. Always some rain between decent summery spells, which kept everything watered sufficiently. The lakes and rivers in N Wales and Cumbria haven't been especially low for the time of year. 

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It's been a good summer here, overall, but we've never really had drought conditions. Always some rain between decent summery spells, which kept everything watered sufficiently. The lakes and rivers in N Wales and Cumbria haven't been especially low for the time of year. 

 

I walked around Fewston reservoir west of Harrogate at the weekend and it was really low, perhaps only 30% , you got the impression it could soon be empty although it does feed into another one so the situation might be more complex.   Many of the Yorkshire reservoirs are closer to the West Coast than the East and certainly their supply area is, in fact it must border on the supply area to the NW United Utilities reservoirs. 

 

I guess you have avoided a hosepipe ban as you have a good supply from Cumbria and N Wales?

 

 

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I guess you have avoided a hosepipe ban as you have a good supply from Cumbria and N Wales? 

 

Yup. Not even a whisper of a ban.

Looking on the UU site, I can see that reservoirs range from 46% ('Pennine Sources') to 98% ('Western Cumbria') as at 21/08/22. That does suggest the western fringes have been wetter than even inland a bit.

The main water sources are Haweswater & Thirlmere (Cumbria) and Dee/Lake Vyrnwy (N Wales), which stand at 56% and 55% respectively. That's below average for the time of year (67% & 84%), but Haweswater/Thirlmere is actually above the level of last year (47%)

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I guess you have avoided a hosepipe ban as you have a good supply from Cumbria and N Wales?

 

 

No hosepipe ban down here either - Portsmouth water had no intentions of implementing one either the last time I checked.

 

 

Yup. Not even a whisper of a ban.

Looking on the UU site, I can see that reservoirs range from 46% ('Pennine Sources') to 98% ('Western Cumbria') as at 21/08/22. That does suggest the western fringes have been wetter than even inland a bit.

The main water sources are Haweswater & Thirlmere (Cumbria) and Dee/Lake Vyrnwy (N Wales), which stand at 56% and 55% respectively. That's below average for the time of year (67% & 84%), but Haweswater/Thirlmere is actually above the level of last year (47%)

Few hosepipe bans anywhere in Ireland either but while it's not anything like as bad as parts of SE England, it's been quite dry here with little rain either in July or August. A really good summer here(only spoiled by having to go to work).  But I think that there's a real break in the weather coming up this weekend. Then again, breaks in the weather have been forecast before....so we'll see if it materialises.

I had assumed that more or less all of England was in drought conditions. I obviously haven't been paying enough attention to TWO in recent weeks!

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Few hosepipe bans anywhere in Ireland either but while it's not anything like as bad as parts of SE England, it's been quite dry here with little rain either in July or August. A really good summer here(only spoiled by having to go to work).  But I think that there's a real break in the weather coming up this weekend. Then again, breaks in the weather have been forecast before....so we'll see if it materialises.

I had assumed that more or less all of England was in drought conditions. I obviously haven't been paying enough attention to TWO in recent weeks!

 

Did you not notice when you were in Shropshire? Or especially your trip to Liverpool?

As I said, a good summer, but enough rain to keep the drought away.

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Did you not notice when you were in Shropshire? Or especially your trip to Liverpool?

As I said, a good summer, but enough rain to keep the drought away.

Actually, I thought that it was quite dry in Shropshire. Some trees were suffering(mainly younger ones)and the grass was very brown in places. Not as bad as the South East, I would think, but drought conditions nonetheless.

In Liverpool, I must admit that on the way to Anfield, I was just too busy following google maps instructions to the ground, listening to my son's predictions about the match and looking out for slightly dodgy looking Scousers who might guide me into unlit carparks. So I really didn't pay much attention to anything else. And it was dark on the way back after the match. The only thing that I wasn't too busy to notice was how friendly just about everyone was who I met in and around Anfield - and I say that without being a Liverpool supporter - all very nice people there! Although, I do wonder how you fit in around there, Saint .

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The Harbour Master in Bude could clearly do with the expertise on this forum as he decided to 'flush' the Sea Canal earlier in the month without regard to the likely chance of rain and it is now basically empty https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-62730527 to make it worse the feed from the river topping up the canal had also been stopped !!

 

 

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The Harbour Master in Bude could clearly do with the expertise on this forum as he decided to 'flush' the Sea Canal earlier in the month without regard to the likely chance of rain and it is now basically empty https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-62730527 to make it worse the feed from the river topping up the canal had also been stopped !! 

I guess he will be getting a talky talky to from the EA if he hasn't already. 

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With the Atlantic hurricane season warming up , and a warning from Elizabeth Rizzini as duty forecaster on the BBC this morning that forecasts are going to be uncertain over the next week, there should be an interesting period of chart watching coming up ...

WX temp summary: W Europe hanging on to quite warm weather over the next two weeks, perhaps a little cooler than yesterday's forecast, while cool/cold air well established from the Urals across to Poland and N Scandinavia. Rain in week 1 from Britain through France to the Balkans, in week 2 still damp in these areas and more showing in W Russia.

Jet - loops settling W of Ireland Sun 4th and Wed 14th, breaking up with streaks mostly near S Britain in between

GFS Op - LP establishing W of Ireland Sun 4th 995mb slowly filling and moving E on Friday while one hurricane appears well to the SW Sat 3rd, gradually moving towards Britain, while another appears closer to US coast Fri 9th. The first of these transforms into a 'normal' depression 985mb Ireland Mon 12th whilst the other continues with storm force winds towards Greenland, eventually getting absorbed in the Atlantic circulation and contributing to a large LP 985mb Rockall Sat 17th.

GEFS - mean temp near norm, not too many outliers, through to 17th, perhaps a little warmer to start with, quite a lot of rain mainly either side of Wed 7th (front-loaded in the W), and a lesser batch around the 14th

ECM - treats the first ex-hurricane differently, allowing it to drift N and fill somewhat before heading for the SW Approaches 990mb Sun 11th. The second hurricane doesn't appear at all.

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