Insane heat once again from GFS.  38c by the end. Third run in a row to show 100f .

 

However, trend is growing for a long dry spell through July....even here in Witney.

Insane heat once again from GFS.  38c by the end. Third run in a row to show 100f .

 

Insane but a long, long, long way out, and no way will it verify.

However, trend is growing for a long dry spell through July....even here in Witney.

again your comment is ridiculous ‘no way will it verify’ - honestly your posts are so ‘told you do’ it’s unbearable.

the heat in Europe the potential for change in pattern makes it very possible 

A steady burner to something potentially quite special...shades of 95 ? 

Ps. Loving the 0z GFS @378hrs that gives Folkestone 23.5c @ 850Hpa, 30.2c @ 925Hpa in 577 dam air ! 

WX summary back this morning: week 1 warmth still holding on in Scandinavia, cooler on either side especially to the east; week 2 Scandinavian heat collapses and cool weather moves down as far as Belarus while heat pushes up from the south elsewhere, especially to England (close to 20C day-night average but still on the cool side N Scotland) and super-hot for Spain and Urals. Rain well distributed in week 1, concentrated in the cool area as above week 2 with very dry England, France & Germany.

GFS Op - current trough filling but taking its time to move first N and then E into Sweden but by Thu 7th Azores High is in control as it extends to Britain and a definite centre here 1030mb N Ireland Mon 11th. This slowly moves E and allows LP to move up from France Fri 15th

GEFS - for the S mean temp a couple of degrees below norm now, to norm and then above from Fri 8th with op finishing Sat 16th 12C above norm (but hold your horses! the control is below norm and the mean is close to norm). Very dry. Similar temp profile further N without the extremes and wet at first, not quite as dry later as the S

ECM - Similar to GFS but development of Azores high takes place a couple of days earlier

 

again your comment is ridiculous ‘no way will it verify’ - honestly your posts are so ‘told you do’ it’s unbearable.

the heat in Europe the potential for change in pattern makes it very possible 

I didn't actually mean to dismiss it completely out of hand, but I don't think we've ever seen a +384 chart verify, so I'd caveat what I said by saying, it's very, very unlikely to. 😊

A steady burner to something potentially quite special...shades of 95 ? 

Ps. Loving the 0z GFS @378hrs that gives Folkestone 23.5c @ 850Hpa, 30.2c @ 925Hpa in 577 dam air ! 

The pattern for end of next week does look quite June 1995esque.

What I find most interesting in the current runs (aside from 37C appearing in 3 GFS FIs in a row) is that we have just over a week of lower than average upper air forecast, and maxes in the mid 20s. Shows the importance of sunshine in midsummer. It’s been a sunny year so far. 

June has been a respectable month, dryer than average, warmer than average and fairly sunny, think the Met Office anomaly maps will show that in a few days, particularly around here.
You would have to say that July looks to be warmer and sunnier than average, of course it could change but its more likely than not.  
Will August end up mediocre again or will we have a classic summer. Lets hope the latter.

Definitely a significant dry and warm trend showing. One caveat is that the GFS 0Z Ops run is much hotter than the mean so thoughts of 38C could end up in disappointment if taken for Gospel. 

Spain/Portugal looks ripe for a 50c chance - would be devastating for them

Looks brutal day after day of mid 40s. 

Spain/Portugal looks ripe for a 50c chance - would be devastating for them

These dangerous heatwaves are becoming more common across the Med. It won't be too long before tourists give the Med a swerve in July and August. After our sweatbox fortnight in Ibiza back in 2015 we certainly won't be going back in the 'core of summer'.

 

These dangerous heatwaves are becoming more common across the Med. It won't be too long before tourists give the Med a swerve in July and August. After our sweatbox fortnight in Ibiza back in 2015 we certainly won't be going back in the 'core of summer'.

It is a good point.  From next year we have to go away in the School Holidays. Was looking at Tuscany in August , but many of the old Italian houses/villas don't have air conditioning.  Could be horrendous if it co-incidences with a heatwave like they have just experienced.  Looking at the forecast for Florence there are more 38c days to come this weekend. 

I've repurposed the Italy heatwave thread to a more general European one and covered the Spanish forecasts. They look eye popping. Never seen anything like it.

We are at the point where a downgrade would still give them low to mid 40s for a few days.

I wonder what will happen first this century: 50C in Europe or 40C in the UK? 

 

These dangerous heatwaves are becoming more common across the Med. It won't be too long before tourists give the Med a swerve in July and August. After our sweatbox fortnight in Ibiza back in 2015 we certainly won't be going back in the 'core of summer'.

It's a good point. We were once caught in a heatwave on the Costaa del Sol one early July and vowed not to do that again in peak summer (we did go to Murcia to see friends in July 20, but it wasn't so bad, only at around 85f)

We've generally gone to Med places at Whit. If we have to go in the summer hols, it's been Lanza/Fuerta or the Frnech Atlantic Coast round the Vendee. Thinking of trying Brittany next summer (although I'm wary of it not being hot/dry enough)

Off to Malta tomorrow for a long weekend and it's forecast to be 35/36c 

 

don’t forget I was told there is no chance of that this summer

I thought there was meant to be no chance of 30C, never mind 40C? 

Looks like I missed the super hot GFS runs but the latest isn't bad.

 

I thought there was meant to be no chance of 30C, never mind 40C? 

 

Looks like I missed the super hot GFS runs but the latest isn't bad.

There were 3 super-hot FI runs in a row, each with 37C shown towards the end. Unprecedented (but unfortunately also FI).

 

There were 3 super-hot FI runs in a row, each with 37C shown towards the end. Unprecedented (but unfortunately also FI).

That almost answers my suggestion in the European heatwave thread.