WX summary back this morning: week 1 warmth still holding on in Scandinavia, cooler on either side especially to the east; week 2 Scandinavian heat collapses and cool weather moves down as far as Belarus while heat pushes up from the south elsewhere, especially to England (close to 20C day-night average but still on the cool side N Scotland) and super-hot for Spain and Urals. Rain well distributed in week 1, concentrated in the cool area as above week 2 with very dry England, France & Germany.
GFS Op - current trough filling but taking its time to move first N and then E into Sweden but by Thu 7th Azores High is in control as it extends to Britain and a definite centre here 1030mb N Ireland Mon 11th. This slowly moves E and allows LP to move up from France Fri 15th
GEFS - for the S mean temp a couple of degrees below norm now, to norm and then above from Fri 8th with op finishing Sat 16th 12C above norm (but hold your horses! the control is below norm and the mean is close to norm). Very dry. Similar temp profile further N without the extremes and wet at first, not quite as dry later as the S
ECM - Similar to GFS but development of Azores high takes place a couple of days earlier
"Ground covered with snow this morning, having a great deal of snow in the night. This morning was fair but the air very cold" and "Very cold and very damp. Water overflows the ditches all round us ... Land springs about us were scarcely ever known to be so full as at present." Parson Woodforde's Diary, 13th and 17th March 1795, Norfolk
Chichester 12m asl