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Rob K
01 July 2022 18:08:29
An incredibly dry set of ensembles so far. The 6Z showed a mostly steady increase in temperature with very little rain. July could be a really good summer month (and hopefully allow good progress on my building project without turning the garden into a quagmire!)
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
01 July 2022 18:44:07
P20 of this evebing’s GFS is the hottest run I’ve ever set eyes on. That’s a 40C run, but more pertinently it’s a run with upper air conducive to 37-38C+ for 5 days in a row.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Brian Gaze
01 July 2022 18:49:48

Historic.


Edit: I've made the image static so it won't update.



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
01 July 2022 19:29:49


Historic.



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


That’s one for the archives. 


15C in Aberdeen @richardabdn.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
johncs2016
01 July 2022 19:38:59


 


That’s one for the archives. 


15C in Aberdeen @richardabdn.


Originally Posted by: TimS 



The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
doctormog
01 July 2022 19:41:28
He doesn’t live in the sea.
Sevendust
01 July 2022 20:00:37

He doesn’t live in the sea.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Are you sure? He is often getting washed away 

glenogle
01 July 2022 21:11:26


Historic.


Edit: I've made the image static so it won't update.



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Sitting here in Spain sweating buckets at 27 degrees.(14 is tshirt weather in scotland, 20 is scorching 😁).


Supposed to be in Paris next week and seriously thinking about canceling it due to the current forecast heat.


UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
Jiries
02 July 2022 06:59:15


Historic.


Edit: I've made the image static so it won't update.



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Someone posted in NW yesterday showing double 40C from north of London. Nice and hope we ge this. Birmingham might see a record go if went over 36C set in 3rd July 1990. No idea for Nuneaton but went to 31C 2 weeks ago when London was 32C so perhaps had reached 36C or 37C when 38.7 reached in Cambridge. Was 34C in 2020 hot spell.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
02 July 2022 07:36:41

WX summary a bit of a downgrade for hot-weather fans this morning, though good for people like myself who like warmth without extremes. The collapse of the 'heat dome'(?) over Scandinavia with the spread of cool air into Europe from that direction is more widespread by week 2 than shown yesterday, and while Britain including Scotland warms up noticeably, the real heat only reaches to mid-France. SW Spain and Caspian still quite extreme. Most of the rain is over Scandinavia and points to the south of there; a very dry patch over Spain and France reaches S England.


GFS Op has the current trough well out of the way to the NE by Tue 5th, with the Azores High building in behind it, slowly  but more intense than shown yesterday (1040mb off W Ireland by Fri 8th), eventually ridging across Britain by Tue 12th with more of an E-ly especially for England. The LP shown yesterday on the Atlantic in week 2 with its associated strong S-ly no longer features in the forecast.


GEFS mean temp currently just below norm, rising to a little above around Sat 9th, then back to norm with much scatter between ens members but without yesterday's hot outliers. Very dry; a little rain in the N in some ens members later on.


ECM similar to GFS but the ridge which forms is a little further S (over England rather than Scotland) hence more of a W-ly for the N and less of an E-ly for the S


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
02 July 2022 08:24:15
Subtle but significant changes on GFS this morning. The Ens is no longer moving the anticyclone far enough east to switch the wind direction around to a hot southerly. Instead, it weakens and retrogresses west, keeling us in a largely west north-westerly flow. Still mostly dry and very warm for a time however.
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Taylor1740
02 July 2022 09:45:59

Subtle but significant changes on GFS this morning. The Ens is no longer moving the anticyclone far enough east to switch the wind direction around to a hot southerly. Instead, it weakens and retrogresses west, keeling us in a largely west north-westerly flow. Still mostly dry and very warm for a time however.

Originally Posted by: GezM 


Yes certainly not looking like 40c now. Perhaps a few days getting to 30c but looking like a fairly long settled and dry spell.


NW Leeds - 150m amsl
moomin75
02 July 2022 09:59:42


 


Yes certainly not looking like 40c now. Perhaps a few days getting to 30c but looking like a fairly long settled and dry spell.


Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

At the risk of getting shouted down, 40c is never a likely outcome here.


A long dry spell and increasingly warm to hot though does look likely.


Don't think summer lovers anywhere would complain at what we've got coming up.


 


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
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