An incredibly dry set of ensembles so far. The 6Z showed a mostly steady increase in temperature with very little rain. July could be a really good summer month (and hopefully allow good progress on my building project without turning the garden into a quagmire!)

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P20 of this evebing’s GFS is the hottest run I’ve ever set eyes on. That’s a 40C run, but more pertinently it’s a run with upper air conducive to 37-38C+ for 5 days in a row.

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Historic.

Edit: I've made the image static so it won't update.

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That’s one for the archives. 

15C in Aberdeen @richardabdn.

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He doesn’t live in the sea.

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Are you sure? He is often getting washed away 

Sitting here in Spain sweating buckets at 27 degrees.(14 is tshirt weather in scotland, 20 is scorching 😁).

Supposed to be in Paris next week and seriously thinking about canceling it due to the current forecast heat.

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Someone posted in NW yesterday showing double 40C from north of London. Nice and hope we ge this. Birmingham might see a record go if went over 36C set in 3rd July 1990. No idea for Nuneaton but went to 31C 2 weeks ago when London was 32C so perhaps had reached 36C or 37C when 38.7 reached in Cambridge. Was 34C in 2020 hot spell.

WX summary a bit of a downgrade for hot-weather fans this morning, though good for people like myself who like warmth without extremes. The collapse of the 'heat dome'(?) over Scandinavia with the spread of cool air into Europe from that direction is more widespread by week 2 than shown yesterday, and while Britain including Scotland warms up noticeably, the real heat only reaches to mid-France. SW Spain and Caspian still quite extreme. Most of the rain is over Scandinavia and points to the south of there; a very dry patch over Spain and France reaches S England.

GFS Op has the current trough well out of the way to the NE by Tue 5th, with the Azores High building in behind it, slowly  but more intense than shown yesterday (1040mb off W Ireland by Fri 8th), eventually ridging across Britain by Tue 12th with more of an E-ly especially for England. The LP shown yesterday on the Atlantic in week 2 with its associated strong S-ly no longer features in the forecast.

GEFS mean temp currently just below norm, rising to a little above around Sat 9th, then back to norm with much scatter between ens members but without yesterday's hot outliers. Very dry; a little rain in the N in some ens members later on.

ECM similar to GFS but the ridge which forms is a little further S (over England rather than Scotland) hence more of a W-ly for the N and less of an E-ly for the S

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Subtle but significant changes on GFS this morning. The Ens is no longer moving the anticyclone far enough east to switch the wind direction around to a hot southerly. Instead, it weakens and retrogresses west, keeling us in a largely west north-westerly flow. Still mostly dry and very warm for a time however.

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Yes certainly not looking like 40c now. Perhaps a few days getting to 30c but looking like a fairly long settled and dry spell.

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At the risk of getting shouted down, 40c is never a likely outcome here.

A long dry spell and increasingly warm to hot though does look likely.

Don't think summer lovers anywhere would complain at what we've got coming up.

 

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