moomin75
30 June 2022 06:59:41

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

 

again your comment is ridiculous ‘no way will it verify’ - honestly your posts are so ‘told you do’ it’s unbearable.

the heat in Europe the potential for change in pattern makes it very possible 

You are right, sorry. I meant to say, it's FI, and there is no way it's likely to verify like that, but there is a definite trend to something special.

I didn't actually mean to dismiss it completely out of hand, but I don't think we've ever seen a +384 chart verify, so I'd caveat what I said by saying, it's very, very unlikely to. 😊


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
30 June 2022 07:11:26

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

A steady burner to something potentially quite special...shades of 95 ? 

Ps. Loving the 0z GFS @378hrs that gives Folkestone 23.5c @ 850Hpa, 30.2c @ 925Hpa in 577 dam air ! 

The pattern for end of next week does look quite June 1995esque.

What I find most interesting in the current runs (aside from 37C appearing in 3 GFS FIs in a row) is that we have just over a week of lower than average upper air forecast, and maxes in the mid 20s. Shows the importance of sunshine in midsummer. It’s been a sunny year so far. 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Tim A
30 June 2022 07:19:20

June has been a respectable month, dryer than average, warmer than average and fairly sunny, think the Met Office anomaly maps will show that in a few days, particularly around here.
You would have to say that July looks to be warmer and sunnier than average, of course it could change but its more likely than not.  
Will August end up mediocre again or will we have a classic summer. Lets hope the latter.


Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl



GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
30 June 2022 08:16:01

Definitely a significant dry and warm trend showing. One caveat is that the GFS 0Z Ops run is much hotter than the mean so thoughts of 38C could end up in disappointment if taken for Gospel. 


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Downpour
30 June 2022 09:23:17
Minor variations on a burgeoning theme from the overnights: outlook is warm, even very warm, perhaps hot.
Chingford

London E4

147ft

Taylor1740
30 June 2022 10:42:35
First half of next week actually looks quite cool, it's only really towards the end of next week where it looks like the heat may build, but still time for this to change.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
ballamar
30 June 2022 10:49:34
Spain/Portugal looks ripe for a 50c chance - would be devastating for them
Ally Pally Snowman
30 June 2022 11:51:01

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Spain/Portugal looks ripe for a 50c chance - would be devastating for them

Looks brutal day after day of mid 40s. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gusty
30 June 2022 11:56:12

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Spain/Portugal looks ripe for a 50c chance - would be devastating for them

These dangerous heatwaves are becoming more common across the Med. It won't be too long before tourists give the Med a swerve in July and August. After our sweatbox fortnight in Ibiza back in 2015 we certainly won't be going back in the 'core of summer'.


Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Tim A
30 June 2022 12:08:30

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

 

These dangerous heatwaves are becoming more common across the Med. It won't be too long before tourists give the Med a swerve in July and August. After our sweatbox fortnight in Ibiza back in 2015 we certainly won't be going back in the 'core of summer'.

It is a good point.  From next year we have to go away in the School Holidays. Was looking at Tuscany in August , but many of the old Italian houses/villas don't have air conditioning.  Could be horrendous if it co-incidences with a heatwave like they have just experienced.  Looking at the forecast for Florence there are more 38c days to come this weekend. 


Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl



TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
30 June 2022 13:09:21

I've repurposed the Italy heatwave thread to a more general European one and covered the Spanish forecasts. They look eye popping. Never seen anything like it.

We are at the point where a downgrade would still give them low to mid 40s for a few days.

I wonder what will happen first this century: 50C in Europe or 40C in the UK? 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Saint Snow
30 June 2022 13:19:11

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

 

These dangerous heatwaves are becoming more common across the Med. It won't be too long before tourists give the Med a swerve in July and August. After our sweatbox fortnight in Ibiza back in 2015 we certainly won't be going back in the 'core of summer'.

 

It's a good point. We were once caught in a heatwave on the Costaa del Sol one early July and vowed not to do that again in peak summer (we did go to Murcia to see friends in July 20, but it wasn't so bad, only at around 85f)

We've generally gone to Med places at Whit. If we have to go in the summer hols, it's been Lanza/Fuerta or the Frnech Atlantic Coast round the Vendee. Thinking of trying Brittany next summer (although I'm wary of it not being hot/dry enough)

Off to Malta tomorrow for a long weekend and it's forecast to be 35/36c 

 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Rob K
30 June 2022 14:31:44

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

 

don’t forget I was told there is no chance of that this summer

I thought there was meant to be no chance of 30C, never mind 40C? 

 

Looks like I missed the super hot GFS runs but the latest isn't bad.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
30 June 2022 14:35:31

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

 

I thought there was meant to be no chance of 30C, never mind 40C? 

 

Looks like I missed the super hot GFS runs but the latest isn't bad.

There were 3 super-hot FI runs in a row, each with 37C shown towards the end. Unprecedented (but unfortunately also FI).


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Hungry Tiger
30 June 2022 14:38:56

Originally Posted by: TimS 

 

There were 3 super-hot FI runs in a row, each with 37C shown towards the end. Unprecedented (but unfortunately also FI).

That almost answers my suggestion in the European heatwave thread.


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Downpour
30 June 2022 15:28:07

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

 

I thought there was meant to be no chance of 30C, never mind 40C? 

 

Looks like I missed the super hot GFS runs but the latest isn't bad.

 

LOL

 

One of my favourite TWO moments – a prediction that 30c wouldn't be breached all summer, which was then breached about five days after the post was submitted. 


Chingford

London E4

147ft

moomin75
30 June 2022 17:15:56
A more sensible solution from the GFS on consecutive runs today.

Gone are the frankly ridiculous 36s and 37s, to be replaced with high 20s, low 30s, followed by mid 20s.

Very reasonable, and plenty warm enough.


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Jiries
30 June 2022 18:09:55

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

A more sensible solution from the GFS on consecutive runs today.
Gone are the frankly ridiculous 36s and 37s, to be replaced with high 20s, low 30s, followed by mid 20s.
Very reasonable, and plenty warm enough.

Take that like 2018 set-up to end the nasty 8am to 8pm cloudy unusable weather days that had been a bad habit this month.  June been a very poor month in my book due to lack of sun at warmest part of the day.  Only warm up at 8am then get cold all afternoon follow by warm up at evening for a short time.   I don't think France will also see those low 40's right to the coasts as well so should be low to high 30's nationwide with odd 40C here or there.

White Meadows
01 July 2022 06:20:24
Another run that boils up and goes bang on the 00z

The trend continues…

ballamar
01 July 2022 07:09:13
Indeed more of these hot runs feeding in now if the charts align there is so much potential for record heat. Not saying it will definitely but the chances are increasing. Deviations run to run but trends looking more favourable for heat to build
Users browsing this topic

    Ads