again your comment is ridiculous ‘no way will it verify’ - honestly your posts are so ‘told you do’ it’s unbearable.

the heat in Europe the potential for change in pattern makes it very possible 

I didn't actually mean to dismiss it completely out of hand, but I don't think we've ever seen a +384 chart verify, so I'd caveat what I said by saying, it's very, very unlikely to. 😊

A steady burner to something potentially quite special...shades of 95 ? 

Ps. Loving the 0z GFS @378hrs that gives Folkestone 23.5c @ 850Hpa, 30.2c @ 925Hpa in 577 dam air ! 

The pattern for end of next week does look quite June 1995esque.

What I find most interesting in the current runs (aside from 37C appearing in 3 GFS FIs in a row) is that we have just over a week of lower than average upper air forecast, and maxes in the mid 20s. Shows the importance of sunshine in midsummer. It’s been a sunny year so far. 

June has been a respectable month, dryer than average, warmer than average and fairly sunny, think the Met Office anomaly maps will show that in a few days, particularly around here.
You would have to say that July looks to be warmer and sunnier than average, of course it could change but its more likely than not.  
Will August end up mediocre again or will we have a classic summer. Lets hope the latter.

Definitely a significant dry and warm trend showing. One caveat is that the GFS 0Z Ops run is much hotter than the mean so thoughts of 38C could end up in disappointment if taken for Gospel. 

Spain/Portugal looks ripe for a 50c chance - would be devastating for them

Looks brutal day after day of mid 40s. 

Spain/Portugal looks ripe for a 50c chance - would be devastating for them

These dangerous heatwaves are becoming more common across the Med. It won't be too long before tourists give the Med a swerve in July and August. After our sweatbox fortnight in Ibiza back in 2015 we certainly won't be going back in the 'core of summer'.

 

These dangerous heatwaves are becoming more common across the Med. It won't be too long before tourists give the Med a swerve in July and August. After our sweatbox fortnight in Ibiza back in 2015 we certainly won't be going back in the 'core of summer'.

It is a good point.  From next year we have to go away in the School Holidays. Was looking at Tuscany in August , but many of the old Italian houses/villas don't have air conditioning.  Could be horrendous if it co-incidences with a heatwave like they have just experienced.  Looking at the forecast for Florence there are more 38c days to come this weekend. 

I've repurposed the Italy heatwave thread to a more general European one and covered the Spanish forecasts. They look eye popping. Never seen anything like it.

We are at the point where a downgrade would still give them low to mid 40s for a few days.

I wonder what will happen first this century: 50C in Europe or 40C in the UK? 

 

These dangerous heatwaves are becoming more common across the Med. It won't be too long before tourists give the Med a swerve in July and August. After our sweatbox fortnight in Ibiza back in 2015 we certainly won't be going back in the 'core of summer'.

It's a good point. We were once caught in a heatwave on the Costaa del Sol one early July and vowed not to do that again in peak summer (we did go to Murcia to see friends in July 20, but it wasn't so bad, only at around 85f)

We've generally gone to Med places at Whit. If we have to go in the summer hols, it's been Lanza/Fuerta or the Frnech Atlantic Coast round the Vendee. Thinking of trying Brittany next summer (although I'm wary of it not being hot/dry enough)

Off to Malta tomorrow for a long weekend and it's forecast to be 35/36c 

 

don’t forget I was told there is no chance of that this summer

I thought there was meant to be no chance of 30C, never mind 40C? 

Looks like I missed the super hot GFS runs but the latest isn't bad.

 

I thought there was meant to be no chance of 30C, never mind 40C? 

 

Looks like I missed the super hot GFS runs but the latest isn't bad.

There were 3 super-hot FI runs in a row, each with 37C shown towards the end. Unprecedented (but unfortunately also FI).

 

There were 3 super-hot FI runs in a row, each with 37C shown towards the end. Unprecedented (but unfortunately also FI).

That almost answers my suggestion in the European heatwave thread.

 

I thought there was meant to be no chance of 30C, never mind 40C? 

 

Looks like I missed the super hot GFS runs but the latest isn't bad.

LOL

One of my favourite TWO moments – a prediction that 30c wouldn't be breached all summer, which was then breached about five days after the post was submitted. 

A more sensible solution from the GFS on consecutive runs today.
Gone are the frankly ridiculous 36s and 37s, to be replaced with high 20s, low 30s, followed by mid 20s.
Very reasonable, and plenty warm enough.

Take that like 2018 set-up to end the nasty 8am to 8pm cloudy unusable weather days that had been a bad habit this month.  June been a very poor month in my book due to lack of sun at warmest part of the day.  Only warm up at 8am then get cold all afternoon follow by warm up at evening for a short time.   I don't think France will also see those low 40's right to the coasts as well so should be low to high 30's nationwide with odd 40C here or there.