I thought there was meant to be no chance of 30C, never mind 40C? 

 

Looks like I missed the super hot GFS runs but the latest isn't bad.

 

LOL

 

One of my favourite TWO moments – a prediction that 30c wouldn't be breached all summer, which was then breached about five days after the post was submitted. 

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A more sensible solution from the GFS on consecutive runs today.
Gone are the frankly ridiculous 36s and 37s, to be replaced with high 20s, low 30s, followed by mid 20s.
Very reasonable, and plenty warm enough.

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A more sensible solution from the GFS on consecutive runs today.
Gone are the frankly ridiculous 36s and 37s, to be replaced with high 20s, low 30s, followed by mid 20s.
Very reasonable, and plenty warm enough.

Take that like 2018 set-up to end the nasty 8am to 8pm cloudy unusable weather days that had been a bad habit this month.  June been a very poor month in my book due to lack of sun at warmest part of the day.  Only warm up at 8am then get cold all afternoon follow by warm up at evening for a short time.   I don't think France will also see those low 40's right to the coasts as well so should be low to high 30's nationwide with odd 40C here or there.

Another run that boils up and goes bang on the 00z
The trend continues…

Indeed more of these hot runs feeding in now if the charts align there is so much potential for record heat. Not saying it will definitely but the chances are increasing. Deviations run to run but trends looking more favourable for heat to build

WX temp distribution like yesterday's chart, inverting the current situation i.e. in week 2 a cool-ish plunge from Scandinavia down to Poland with increased warmth on either side and notably hot in Spain and the Caspian. For Britain, very warm in the south though the extra hot weather stays just the other side of the Channel, and even Scotland sees improved temps on this run. Rain mostly east of Germany, even more pronounced in week 2; some also coming back to the northern isles by then.

Jet mainly from a W-ly direction in fits and starts; in the middle of the forecast period a loop forms to the west which promotes the LP off Ireland and the S-ly flow mentioned below before going back W-ly again

GFS Op - current trough covering UK moves away slowly but is out of the way to the NE by Tue 5th as Azores High builds in steadily eventually the 1025mb neatly follows the coasts of Britain by Mon 11th.  This is pushed E-wards by LP 1000mb off W Ireland with the prospect of some very warm air from a long way S Wed 13th; the LP then heads off to Iceland and a more normal light but still warm SW-ly affects Britain by Sun 17th.

GEFS - mean temp a little below norm now, rising to a couple of degrees above norm by Mon 11th with good agreement between ens members. Then a lot of disagreement sets in; the mean stays near norm, representing an asymmetric distribution of many ens members near norm, some much above, none much below. Both op and control have their moments at 10+C above norm on different days. Dry (the N has a little rain at first) with a few perhaps thundery spikes late on.

ECM - much like GFS

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Indeed more of these hot runs feeding in now if the charts align there is so much potential for record heat. Not saying it will definitely but the chances are increasing. Deviations run to run but trends looking more favourable for heat to build

It does appear that we are going to get a more steady build up of heat compared with what happened in June. More widespread too so that hopefully the majority of the UK will enjoy some warm weather.

As is often the case in this part of the world, the extreme heat arrives as low pressure approaches and 'sucks' up the continental air prior to a breakdown. For this reason I'm not expecting a prolonged period of unusual heat, but this is probably a blessing for most people. 

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It does appear that we are going to get a more steady build up of heat compared with what happened in June. More widespread too so that hopefully the majority of the UK will enjoy some warm weather.

As is often the case in this part of the world, the extreme heat arrives as low pressure approaches and 'sucks' up the continental air prior to a breakdown. For this reason I'm not expecting a prolonged period of unusual heat, but this is probably a blessing for most people. 

I am looking forward to the coming week as, touch wood, it looks to be an unusual spell of pleasantly warm, sunny and dry weather before the thermostat cranks up. Day after day of 25-27C would be lovely, and much better if topped off by a burst of proper heat rather than that being it before a breakdown.

I like nice pleasant weather but I also like exciting heatwaves, so having several days of the former but knowing the latter is on the way is ideal. 

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I am looking forward to the coming week as, touch wood, it looks to be an unusual spell of pleasantly warm, sunny and dry weather before the thermostat cranks up. Day after day of 25-27C would be lovely, and much better if topped off by a burst of proper heat rather than that being it before a breakdown.

I like nice pleasant weather but I also like exciting heatwaves, so having several days of the former but knowing the latter is on the way is ideal. 

Indeed. Although I could live without the raging heat it’s nice to see some fine weather progged. Up in the Peaks hiking next weekend so hoping for some dry but not hot weather. I think variable cloud is likely to peg temps back to around 23c up there. 

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As is often the case in this part of the world, the extreme heat arrives as low pressure approaches and 'sucks' up the continental air prior to a breakdown. For this reason I'm not expecting a prolonged period of unusual heat, but this is probably a blessing for most people. 

Too true as in those setups, while the SE bakes, we have cloud and drizzle in a dank south westerly!

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An incredibly dry set of ensembles so far. The 6Z showed a mostly steady increase in temperature with very little rain. July could be a really good summer month (and hopefully allow good progress on my building project without turning the garden into a quagmire!)

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P20 of this evebing’s GFS is the hottest run I’ve ever set eyes on. That’s a 40C run, but more pertinently it’s a run with upper air conducive to 37-38C+ for 5 days in a row.

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Historic.

Edit: I've made the image static so it won't update.

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Historic.

That’s one for the archives. 

15C in Aberdeen @richardabdn.

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That’s one for the archives. 

15C in Aberdeen @richardabdn.

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He doesn’t live in the sea.

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He doesn’t live in the sea.

Are you sure? He is often getting washed away 

Historic.

Edit: I've made the image static so it won't update.

Sitting here in Spain sweating buckets at 27 degrees.(14 is tshirt weather in scotland, 20 is scorching 😁).

Supposed to be in Paris next week and seriously thinking about canceling it due to the current forecast heat.

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Historic.

Edit: I've made the image static so it won't update.

Someone posted in NW yesterday showing double 40C from north of London. Nice and hope we ge this. Birmingham might see a record go if went over 36C set in 3rd July 1990. No idea for Nuneaton but went to 31C 2 weeks ago when London was 32C so perhaps had reached 36C or 37C when 38.7 reached in Cambridge. Was 34C in 2020 hot spell.

WX summary a bit of a downgrade for hot-weather fans this morning, though good for people like myself who like warmth without extremes. The collapse of the 'heat dome'(?) over Scandinavia with the spread of cool air into Europe from that direction is more widespread by week 2 than shown yesterday, and while Britain including Scotland warms up noticeably, the real heat only reaches to mid-France. SW Spain and Caspian still quite extreme. Most of the rain is over Scandinavia and points to the south of there; a very dry patch over Spain and France reaches S England.

GFS Op has the current trough well out of the way to the NE by Tue 5th, with the Azores High building in behind it, slowly  but more intense than shown yesterday (1040mb off W Ireland by Fri 8th), eventually ridging across Britain by Tue 12th with more of an E-ly especially for England. The LP shown yesterday on the Atlantic in week 2 with its associated strong S-ly no longer features in the forecast.

GEFS mean temp currently just below norm, rising to a little above around Sat 9th, then back to norm with much scatter between ens members but without yesterday's hot outliers. Very dry; a little rain in the N in some ens members later on.

ECM similar to GFS but the ridge which forms is a little further S (over England rather than Scotland) hence more of a W-ly for the N and less of an E-ly for the S

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