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Bertwhistle
24 September 2021 18:55:03

It would be hard for this to go sub 16 surely? Especially with the last few days relatively mathematically insignificant.


Interesting that with a few exceptions, the Had line and GWs are so parallel- and we know how accurate GWs estimates are towards the end of the month. Makes me think we shouldn't bother with the provisional HadCET data during the month- or take a fixed amount off. I still wonder why it's worth publishing them at all even as 'provisional'. 


Regarding this month, only the 1st and 2nd were sub 20 max here. I have only a few summer months in my records (back to 1860 fairly locally and the 1990s here) when 20C was exceeded on all days in the month and no Septembers. Obviously there will be some < 20 days in the cooler end-month spell but quite a month nonetheless.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Global Warming
24 September 2021 21:23:42


Interesting that with a few exceptions, the Had line and GWs are so parallel- and we know how accurate GWs estimates are towards the end of the month. Makes me think we shouldn't bother with the provisional HadCET data during the month- or take a fixed amount off. I still wonder why it's worth publishing them at all even as 'provisional'. 


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


The provisional CET data is a complete waste of time in my view as it is not accurate. The good news is that the Met Office is updating the CET data set soon with a fully traceable system. They have been promising this for a while so I won't hold my breathe. Their website has been saying the following since early this year:


"This version of CET will be superseded by CETv2 later in 2021. This will be a fully traceable system, with improved homogenisation and data adjustments to ensure a more consistent data-set through history and up to the present day. Further details to follow in due course."

Bertwhistle
25 September 2021 09:52:21


 


The provisional CET data is a complete waste of time in my view as it is not accurate. The good news is that the Met Office is updating the CET data set soon with a fully traceable system. They have been promising this for a while so I won't hold my breathe. Their website has been saying the following since early this year:


"This version of CET will be superseded by CETv2 later in 2021. This will be a fully traceable system, with improved homogenisation and data adjustments to ensure a more consistent data-set through history and up to the present day. Further details to follow in due course."


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


That's the first I've heard of it and it does sound promising- exciting even. But then, I haven't felt your exasperation waiting for it!


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
ARTzeman
25 September 2021 10:28:30

Met Office Hadley      16.8c      Anomaly      3.0c provisional to 24th


Metcheck                   16.15c    Anomaly      2.43c


Netweather                16.76c    Anomaly      3.07c


Peasedown St John   16.28c    Anomaly     2.0c.       






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin P
25 September 2021 10:43:45


Latest CET estimate still keeping just at 16C. It will be close. Monday still looks above average due to high overnight minimums as the cold front goes through. By Thursday the CET is looking very chilly. If it wasn't for the cold last couple of days we could have been around 16.2C.


UserPostedImage


Chart 1


UserPostedImage


Chart 2


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


I guess if September had 31 days and not 30 we'd be very likely to be under 16C?


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Surrey John
26 September 2021 07:20:09
Another month where I was miles out with my prediction.

Will have to try and guess better in October, do I just guess now, or wait 4 days and still guess wrong.


Bradford on Avon, Wiltshire
35m ASL
lanky
26 September 2021 07:47:40

Another month where I was miles out with my prediction.

Will have to try and guess better in October, do I just guess now, or wait 4 days and still guess wrong.

Originally Posted by: Surrey John 


You and everyone else


Everyone has gone too low in September and everyone except Hippydave went too high in August


I guess we are all more predictable than the actual weather on here


 


Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Spring Sun Winter Dread
26 September 2021 08:50:35
Yes
I guess I'd just seen the "scorching hot start to September followed by 3 weeks of cool dross" pattern too many times to believe this year would be the exception
But it truly has been. September started on full blast summer mode and even now as I sit here in the 26th , this could pass for a mid July day easily. As could almost any day in the month.
ARTzeman
26 September 2021 10:17:16

Slight Rise..


Met Office Hadley      16.9c.      Anomaly      3.1c provisional to 25th


Metcheck                   16.18c     Anomaly      2.46c


Netweather                16.8c       Anomaly      3.1c


Peasedown St John   16.3c      Anomaly     2.02c.          






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Hungry Tiger
26 September 2021 13:45:13


Slight Rise..


Met Office Hadley      16.9c.      Anomaly      3.1c provisional to 25th


Metcheck                   16.18c     Anomaly      2.46c


Netweather                16.8c       Anomaly      3.1c


Peasedown St John   16.3c      Anomaly     2.02c.          


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


4 days left - Shame a change is taking place from tomorrow - If that hadn't happened reckon we could have a 17.0C


 


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
26 September 2021 17:51:18


You and everyone else


Everyone has gone too low in September and everyone except Hippydave went too high in August


I guess we are all more predictable than the actual weather on here


Originally Posted by: lanky 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
26 September 2021 17:56:40

Yes
I guess I'd just seen the "scorching hot start to September followed by 3 weeks of cool dross" pattern too many times to believe this year would be the exception
But it truly has been. September started on full blast summer mode and even now as I sit here in the 26th , this could pass for a mid July day easily. As could almost any day in the month.

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 

June and July were lovely here but August was very cloudy and has been far surpassed by September!  If this month had been like August, it would have been a long winter but I don’t mind going into Autumn now we’ve had some warm sunshine! 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
ARTzeman
27 September 2021 10:12:55

Met Office Hadley      16.9c      Anomaly      3.1c provisional to 26th


Metcheck                   16.21c    Anomaly      2.49c


Netweather                16.81c    Anomaly      3.12c


Peasedown St John    16.27c    Anomaly      1.99c. 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
28 September 2021 10:25:47

Met Office Hadley        16.8c        Anomaly       3.0c provisional to 27th


Metcheck                     16..06c     Anomaly       2.34c


Netweather                  16.72c      Anomaly       3.03c


Peasedown St John     16.1c        Anomaly      1.82c.            






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
28 September 2021 10:47:44
Mean falling quickly now but final 2 or 3 days won't make much difference, currently 14.6C (+2.0C) here
ARTzeman
29 September 2021 11:50:08

Met Office Hadley       16.6c       Anomaly       2.9c provisional to 28th


Metcheck                    15.89c     Anomaly       2.17c


Netweather                 16.58c     Anomaly       2.89c


Peasedown St John    16.1c     ANOMALY       1.82C.  






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
30 September 2021 10:15:43

Met Office Hadley        16.4c       Anomaly       2.8c provisional to 29th


Metcheck                     15.71c     Anomaly       1.98c


Netweather                  16.28c     Anomaly       2.69c


Peasedown St John     15.72c     Anoamlyy      1.44c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Saint Snow
30 September 2021 21:26:32

No October temp thread?


 


(hope late entries don't get docked )


 


 




Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
01 October 2021 08:25:14


No October temp thread?


 


(hope late entries don't get docked )


 


 



Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


I was just looking for the October thread myself. I'm sure Mr GW will give us reasonable time to get our predictions (guesses) in after the thread appears. 


Not sure why I'm that interested really as I must be near rock bottom after September 


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Hungry Tiger
01 October 2021 09:49:10


 


I was just looking for the October thread myself. I'm sure Mr GW will give us reasonable time to get our predictions (guesses) in after the thread appears. 


Not sure why I'm that interested really as I must be near rock bottom after September 


Originally Posted by: GezM 


I'll sticky the October thread as soon as I see it.


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


The Professional
01 October 2021 11:07:38
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2021 . This is 0.09c higher than the final August figure.

So everyone ends too low for September, but with WI the closest - impressively, only 0.18c shy. Congrats, a big gain on the rest of the field!
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
01 October 2021 11:24:14
Well done Whether Idle. An excellent prediction in a month of a big anomaly!
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Saint Snow
01 October 2021 13:28:23
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2021 . This is 0.09c higher than the final August figure.

So everyone ends too low for September, but with WI the closest - impressively, only 0.18c shy. Congrats, a big gain on the rest of the field!


 


Like me and a couple of others, WI is liable for a 0.2c 'correction' for a late entry.


 


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Hippydave
01 October 2021 14:08:01

Congratulations to WI


Been a funny year CET wise, with some large swings month to month and even during some months, making it hard to judge. Probably find that volatility will disappear in time for winter and we'll get months of wet and mild


Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Whether Idle
01 October 2021 14:59:57

Thanks guys. I have a penalty to pay. Anyway it’s up to the boss. Its fair. The irony is I was going to go for an outrageous 16.01 but forgot to do it and then changed my prediction for the worse after I panicked having forgotten to do my entry. Serves me right.

I would advise all to get their predictions in by midnight tonight. By PM to GW.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.

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