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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
14 September 2021 18:29:10

 


The next couple of weeks seem to look pretty stable in terms of max & min temps, with almost all days looking like having a CET of between 13c and 15c. If the rest of the month averaged about 14c, we'd be looking at a final figure of 15.5c - 16c (depending on downward adjustments).


I'm pretty confident this will be the case - barring any crazily anomalous spell not currently showing


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

well, I’m very confident it will end closer to your prediction than mine!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
ARTzeman
15 September 2021 10:22:59

Met Office Hadley        17.6c       Anomaly       3.3c provisional to 14th


Metcheck                     16.73c     Anomaly       3.01c


Netweather                  17.52c     Anomaly        2.83c


Peasedown St John     17.0c      Anomaly       2.72c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Hungry Tiger
15 September 2021 14:33:47


Met Office Hadley        17.6c       Anomaly       3.3c provisional to 14th


Metcheck                     16.73c     Anomaly       3.01c


Netweather                  17.52c     Anomaly        2.83c


Peasedown St John     17.0c      Anomaly       2.72c.


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


Still very impressive and we're half way through the month.


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


ARTzeman
16 September 2021 10:20:47

Met Office Hadley       17.4c      Anomaly       3.2c provisional to 15th


Metcheck                    16.61c    Anomaly        2.89c


Netweather                17.41c     Anomaly        3.72c


Peasedown St John    16.92c    Anomaly       2.54c.  






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Bolty
16 September 2021 15:05:50
16°C+ is looking unlikely now, I'd say. The models seem to be suggesting a fresher feel for the final third of the month. Daytime temperatures will be similar to now, but the nights look to be turning quite a bit cooler.
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
ARTzeman
17 September 2021 10:41:14

Met Office Hadley      17.4c       Anomaly     3.2c provisional to 16th


Metcheck                   16.54c     Anomaly     2.82c


Netweather                17.33c     Anomaly     3.64c


Peasedown St John   16.71c     Anomaly    2.43c. 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
18 September 2021 10:35:34

Met Office Hadley        17.3c      Anomaly     3.2c provisional to 17th


Metcheck                     16.48c    Anomaly     2.76c


Netweather                  17.27c    Anomaly     3.58c


Peasedown St John     16.6c     Anomaly     2.39c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
19 September 2021 10:29:58

Met Office Hadley      17.3c      Anomaly      3.2c provisional to 18th


Metcheck                   16.51c    Anomaly      2.79c


Netweather                17.3c      Anomaly     3.61c


Peasdeown St John   16.7c       Anomaly     2.42c.           






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Global Warming
19 September 2021 11:10:23

Good afternoon. I have been away on holiday for the past week so not had a chance to post any updates for a while.


Latest CET estimate for September is 15.77C. So a steady fall off for the rest of the month as would be expected. Temperatures should stay slightly above average until the final three days of the month, mainly due to mild nights. Final September CET could be very similar to August.


Despite the fall off in the CET in the second half of the month this could still be the 7th warmest September on record. The CET has reached 16C or more on 6 occasions in September. We have never had a 15.8C or 15.9C September.


UserPostedImage


Chart 1


UserPostedImage


Chart 2

ARTzeman
20 September 2021 10:22:36

Met Office Hadley      17.2c      Anomaly       3.2c provisional to 19th


Metcheck                   16.37c    Anomaly       2.65c


Netweather                17.2c     Anomaly        3.51c


Peasedown St John   16.7c     Anomaly       2.4c.  






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Global Warming
20 September 2021 19:29:50


Good afternoon. I have been away on holiday for the past week so not had a chance to post any updates for a while.


Latest CET estimate for September is 15.77C. So a steady fall off for the rest of the month as would be expected. Temperatures should stay slightly above average until the final three days of the month, mainly due to mild nights. Final September CET could be very similar to August.


Despite the fall off in the CET in the second half of the month this could still be the 7th warmest September on record. The CET has reached 16C or more on 6 occasions in September. We have never had a 15.8C or 15.9C September.


UserPostedImage


Chart 1


UserPostedImage


Chart 2


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


Looking a little warmer now as the jet stream remains further north right through the weekend so should keep the CET area on the warm side of the jet until at least Sunday. Current CET estimate for September has now gone up to 15.99C.

ARTzeman
21 September 2021 11:25:48

Met Office Hadley     17.1c     Anomaly     3.1c provisional to 20th


Metcheck                  16.24c   Anomaly     2.54c


Netweather               17.05c   Anomaly     2.12c


Peasedown St John    16.40c   Anomaly   2.12c. 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Stormchaser
22 September 2021 08:36:33

I got an estimate in the mid-16s from yesterday's GFS 12z, but the model has again failed to resolve the low minimum temps under the inversion this morning, so I think it would be more like low 16s now. Apply the typical downward adjustment from provisional Hadley CET onto that and you're at GW's latest estimate .



It sure has been an extraordinary month. Looks like it will join the three previous 2.0+ CET anomaly Septembers since 1950: 1999, 2006 and 2016.


Studying previous 1.5+ CET anomaly Septembers, a very warm North Atlantic was present in 7 out of 8 cases. 2021 has made it 8 out of 9. Unsurprising given that temps in the north-eastern N. Atlantic reach their peak during this month while dependence on sunshine diminishes and the impact of heat plumes does a bit too (though remains significant).


I now find myself wishing I'd put more stock behind that rather than what the models were showing for the opening third or so, as of the end of August! They saw the warm signal but were well down on its magnitude. To be fair, though, it was a truly exceptional spell of high temps that took place in the 2nd week.


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2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
ARTzeman
22 September 2021 11:16:18

Met Office Hadley        17.0c      Anomaly       3.0c provisional to 21st


Metcheck                     16.15c    Anomaly       2.43c


Netweather                  16.93c    Anomaly       3.24c


Peasedown St John     16.4c     Anomaly      2.16c. 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Hungry Tiger
22 September 2021 14:31:10


Met Office Hadley        17.0c      Anomaly       3.0c provisional to 21st


Metcheck                     16.15c    Anomaly       2.43c


Netweather                  16.93c    Anomaly       3.24c


Peasedown St John     16.4c     Anomaly      2.16c. 


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


Looks like we're going to slip below 17.0C


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


ARTzeman
23 September 2021 10:24:26

Met Office Hadley      16.9c       Anomaly      2.9c provisional to 22nd


Metcheck                   16.12c      Anomaly       2.39c


Netweather                16.82c      Anomaly       3.13c


Peasedown St John   16.24c      Anomaly       1.96c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Ally Pally Snowman
23 September 2021 10:40:30


Met Office Hadley      16.9c       Anomaly      2.9c provisional to 22nd


Metcheck                   16.12c      Anomaly       2.39c


Netweather                16.82c      Anomaly       3.13c


Peasedown St John   16.24c      Anomaly       1.96c.


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


 


Can we stay above 16c , going to be very close


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Spring Sun Winter Dread
24 September 2021 08:13:28
16C+ in September is truly elite territory.
September 1999 was much feted for its warmth but fell short of this mark.
It also is looking more and more likely that we will finish above August which must be pretty rare (it did of course happen in the legendary 2006 which in many ways this years Aug/Sept combo has reminded me of)
ARTzeman
24 September 2021 10:19:42

Met Office Hadley        16.8c      Anomaly      3.0c provisional to 23rd


Metcheck                     16.07c    Anomaly      2.35c


Netweather                  16.77c    Anomaly      3.08c


Peasedown St John     16.2c     Anomaly       1.92c.  






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
24 September 2021 13:54:30
Looks like September could end up a full 6C warmer than May. Looking through the CET record the only time that has happened previously is 1729: May 10.3, September 16.6.

May this year was 10.1C so we need this month to end up 16.4C to equal, 16.5C to beat 1729. Unlikely, but should be clearly in second.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Gusty
24 September 2021 14:29:07

A stunning month. 


20 of the 24 days have exceeded 20c.


The highest temperature during the whole of August here was 22.9c. We have exceeded that value 7 times this month with 2 days in excess of 29c.


Mean monthly temperature in August was 16.9c with 45mm rainfall


So far this month the mean stands at 17.5c with 2.8mm rainfall.


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
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Global Warming
24 September 2021 16:56:22

Latest CET estimate still keeping just at 16C. It will be close. Monday still looks above average due to high overnight minimums as the cold front goes through. By Thursday the CET is looking very chilly. If it wasn't for the cold last couple of days we could have been around 16.2C.


UserPostedImage


Chart 1


UserPostedImage


Chart 2

Saint Snow
24 September 2021 17:48:13


Latest CET estimate still keeping just at 16C. It will be close. Monday still looks above average due to high overnight minimums as the cold front goes through. By Thursday the CET is looking very chilly. If it wasn't for the cold last couple of days we could have been around 16.2C.


UserPostedImage


Chart 1


UserPostedImage


Chart 2


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


 


All just about the margin that Weather Idle wins the month by 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Windy Willow
24 September 2021 18:02:59


A stunning month. 


20 of the 24 days have exceeded 20c.


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


I agree it has been a stunning month 


However that's not going to prevent me from hitting the bottom after my guess & being late with penalties lol


 


Still all good fun though 


South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

Don't feed the Trolls!! When starved of attention they return to their dark caves or the dark recesses of bridges and will turn back to stone, silent again!
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
24 September 2021 18:12:29


A stunning month. 


20 of the 24 days have exceeded 20c.


The highest temperature during the whole of August here was 22.9c. We have exceeded that value 7 times this month with 2 days in excess of 29c.


Mean monthly temperature in August was 16.9c with 45mm rainfall


So far this month the mean stands at 17.5c with 2.8mm rainfall.


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


August really was crap wasn’t it. July wasn’t much better down here aside from one week. June was no great shakes. And May was awful. 


Forgettable summer somewhat salvaged by a nice September. 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl

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