well, I’m very confident it will end closer to your prediction than mine!  

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Met Office Hadley        17.6c       Anomaly       3.3c provisional to 14th

Metcheck                     16.73c     Anomaly       3.01c

Netweather                  17.52c     Anomaly        2.83c

Peasedown St John     17.0c      Anomaly       2.72c.

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Still very impressive and we're half way through the month.

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Met Office Hadley       17.4c      Anomaly       3.2c provisional to 15th

Metcheck                    16.61c    Anomaly        2.89c

Netweather                17.41c     Anomaly        3.72c

Peasedown St John    16.92c    Anomaly       2.54c.  

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16°C+ is looking unlikely now, I'd say. The models seem to be suggesting a fresher feel for the final third of the month. Daytime temperatures will be similar to now, but the nights look to be turning quite a bit cooler.

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Met Office Hadley      17.4c       Anomaly     3.2c provisional to 16th

Metcheck                   16.54c     Anomaly     2.82c

Netweather                17.33c     Anomaly     3.64c

Peasedown St John   16.71c     Anomaly    2.43c. 

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Met Office Hadley        17.3c      Anomaly     3.2c provisional to 17th

Metcheck                     16.48c    Anomaly     2.76c

Netweather                  17.27c    Anomaly     3.58c

Peasedown St John     16.6c     Anomaly     2.39c.

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Met Office Hadley      17.3c      Anomaly      3.2c provisional to 18th

Metcheck                   16.51c    Anomaly      2.79c

Netweather                17.3c      Anomaly     3.61c

Peasdeown St John   16.7c       Anomaly     2.42c.           

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Good afternoon. I have been away on holiday for the past week so not had a chance to post any updates for a while.

Latest CET estimate for September is 15.77C. So a steady fall off for the rest of the month as would be expected. Temperatures should stay slightly above average until the final three days of the month, mainly due to mild nights. Final September CET could be very similar to August.

Despite the fall off in the CET in the second half of the month this could still be the 7th warmest September on record. The CET has reached 16C or more on 6 occasions in September. We have never had a 15.8C or 15.9C September.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Met Office Hadley      17.2c      Anomaly       3.2c provisional to 19th

Metcheck                   16.37c    Anomaly       2.65c

Netweather                17.2c     Anomaly        3.51c

Peasedown St John   16.7c     Anomaly       2.4c.  

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Looking a little warmer now as the jet stream remains further north right through the weekend so should keep the CET area on the warm side of the jet until at least Sunday. Current CET estimate for September has now gone up to 15.99C.

Met Office Hadley     17.1c     Anomaly     3.1c provisional to 20th

Metcheck                  16.24c   Anomaly     2.54c

Netweather               17.05c   Anomaly     2.12c

Peasedown St John    16.40c   Anomaly   2.12c. 

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I got an estimate in the mid-16s from yesterday's GFS 12z, but the model has again failed to resolve the low minimum temps under the inversion this morning, so I think it would be more like low 16s now. Apply the typical downward adjustment from provisional Hadley CET onto that and you're at GW's latest estimate .

It sure has been an extraordinary month. Looks like it will join the three previous 2.0+ CET anomaly Septembers since 1950: 1999, 2006 and 2016.

Studying previous 1.5+ CET anomaly Septembers, a very warm North Atlantic was present in 7 out of 8 cases. 2021 has made it 8 out of 9. Unsurprising given that temps in the north-eastern N. Atlantic reach their peak during this month while dependence on sunshine diminishes and the impact of heat plumes does a bit too (though remains significant).

I now find myself wishing I'd put more stock behind that rather than what the models were showing for the opening third or so, as of the end of August! They saw the warm signal but were well down on its magnitude. To be fair, though, it was a truly exceptional spell of high temps that took place in the 2nd week.

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Met Office Hadley        17.0c      Anomaly       3.0c provisional to 21st

Metcheck                     16.15c    Anomaly       2.43c

Netweather                  16.93c    Anomaly       3.24c

Peasedown St John     16.4c     Anomaly      2.16c. 

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Looks like we're going to slip below 17.0C

 

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Met Office Hadley      16.9c       Anomaly      2.9c provisional to 22nd

Metcheck                   16.12c      Anomaly       2.39c

Netweather                16.82c      Anomaly       3.13c

Peasedown St John   16.24c      Anomaly       1.96c.

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Can we stay above 16c , going to be very close

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16C+ in September is truly elite territory.
September 1999 was much feted for its warmth but fell short of this mark.
It also is looking more and more likely that we will finish above August which must be pretty rare (it did of course happen in the legendary 2006 which in many ways this years Aug/Sept combo has reminded me of)

Met Office Hadley        16.8c      Anomaly      3.0c provisional to 23rd

Metcheck                     16.07c    Anomaly      2.35c

Netweather                  16.77c    Anomaly      3.08c

Peasedown St John     16.2c     Anomaly       1.92c.  

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Looks like September could end up a full 6C warmer than May. Looking through the CET record the only time that has happened previously is 1729: May 10.3, September 16.6.

May this year was 10.1C so we need this month to end up 16.4C to equal, 16.5C to beat 1729. Unlikely, but should be clearly in second.

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A stunning month. 

20 of the 24 days have exceeded 20c.

The highest temperature during the whole of August here was 22.9c. We have exceeded that value 7 times this month with 2 days in excess of 29c.

Mean monthly temperature in August was 16.9c with 45mm rainfall

So far this month the mean stands at 17.5c with 2.8mm rainfall.

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Latest CET estimate still keeping just at 16C. It will be close. Monday still looks above average due to high overnight minimums as the cold front goes through. By Thursday the CET is looking very chilly. If it wasn't for the cold last couple of days we could have been around 16.2C.

Chart 1

Chart 2

 

All just about the margin that Weather Idle wins the month by 

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I agree it has been a stunning month 

However that's not going to prevent me from hitting the bottom after my guess & being late with penalties lol

 

Still all good fun though 

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August really was crap wasn’t it. July wasn’t much better down here aside from one week. June was no great shakes. And May was awful. 

Forgettable summer somewhat salvaged by a nice September. 

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