Bertwhistle
12 September 2021 14:50:28

We do need to be cautious about assuming a 16C+ is nailed on for September. Even with this notable 18.2C to 11th, we still need 14.8 daily for the rest of the month to secure a 16. That is based on current HadCET reporting back, which of course is some way above what tends to happen. I do hope these regular, nay, constant downjustments are not just designed to cover up warming. Luckily GW is able to track closer to the truth as the month moves on.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
Taylor1740
12 September 2021 15:22:00

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


We do need to be cautious about assuming a 16C+ is nailed on for September. Even with this notable 18.2C to 11th, we still need 14.8 daily for the rest of the month to secure a 16. That is based on current HadCET reporting back, which of course is some way above what tends to happen. I do hope these regular, nay, constant downjustments are not just designed to cover up warming. Luckily GW is able to track closer to the truth as the month moves on.



How do you mean 'you hope these regular, nay, constant downjustments are not just designed to cover up warming'? Are you suggesting they are fiddling the data?


As for the 16c+ I agree that it is by no means are guarantee and I suspect the current 18.2c could be running at least 0.5c above the actual so far, but will see what GW says.


 


 


NW Leeds - 150m amsl
lanky
12 September 2021 16:02:57

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


We do need to be cautious about assuming a 16C+ is nailed on for September. Even with this notable 18.2C to 11th, we still need 14.8 daily for the rest of the month to secure a 16. That is based on current HadCET reporting back, which of course is some way above what tends to happen. I do hope these regular, nay, constant downjustments are not just designed to cover up warming. Luckily GW is able to track closer to the truth as the month moves on.



If I remember correctly there is a -0.2C adjustment made each month to allow for increasd urbanisation of the sites. Not a "cover up" but a way of getting consistency across the whole series going back into the Manley data from 1659


 


Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Bertwhistle
13 September 2021 09:44:28

Originally Posted by: lanky 


 


If I remember correctly there is a -0.2C adjustment made each month to allow for increasd urbanisation of the sites. Not a "cover up" but a way of getting consistency across the whole series going back into the Manley data from 1659


 



No- apologies to you and Taylor & anyone else- I should have posted a smiley; it was intended lightly. I certainly wasn't hijacking this brilliant thread with a climate agenda!


Soz.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
ARTzeman
13 September 2021 10:15:00

Met Office Hadley       17.9c       Anomaly      3.5c provisional to 12th


Metcheck                    17.01c     Anomaly       3.28c


Netweather                 17.82c     Anomaly       4.13c


Peasedown St John     17.17c    Anomaly     2.89c.






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Gavin P
13 September 2021 11:04:41

Thanks ART! 


The decline has begun! Wonder where it will end up?


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Hungry Tiger
13 September 2021 13:24:23

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Thanks ART! 


The decline has begun! Wonder where it will end up?



A Sepetmber CET in excess of 17C would be amazing. A September CET in excess of 18C would be truly amazing.


But look at December 2015 - A CET in excess of 9.0C Now that was incredible.


So these days anything is possible.


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
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Saint Snow
13 September 2021 14:08:43

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


 


A Sepetmber CET in excess of 17C would be amazing. A September CET in excess of 18C would be truly amazing.


But look at December 2015 - A CET in excess of 9.0C Now that was incredible.


So these days anything is possible.


 



 


The next couple of weeks seem to look pretty stable in terms of max & min temps, with almost all days looking like having a CET of between 13c and 15c. If the rest of the month averaged about 14c, we'd be looking at a final figure of 15.5c - 16c (depending on downward adjustments).


I'm pretty confident this will be the case - barring any crazily anomalous spell not currently showing



Martin
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Bertwhistle
13 September 2021 18:33:35

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


 


The next couple of weeks seem to look pretty stable in terms of max & min temps, with almost all days looking like having a CET of between 13c and 15c. If the rest of the month averaged about 14c, we'd be looking at a final figure of 15.5c - 16c (depending on downward adjustments).


I'm pretty confident this will be the case - barring any crazily anomalous spell not currently showing



This evening, the GFS Ens mean line is mostly > a degree above the black line, sometimes as high as +3 and only  reaching +0 on about two occasions.  This should give CETs at the higher end of your estimate.


I continue to be baffled by the black line- start and end of run just about the same, despite two weeks of autumnal onset. 


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
ARTzeman
14 September 2021 10:22:53

Met Office Hadley       17.7c     Anomaly      3.4c provisional to 13th


Metcheck                    16.89c   Anomaly      3.17c


Netweather                 17.67c   Anomaly      3.98c


Peasedown St John    17.92c   Anomaly     2.74c.  






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Others just get wet.
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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
14 September 2021 18:29:10

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

 


The next couple of weeks seem to look pretty stable in terms of max & min temps, with almost all days looking like having a CET of between 13c and 15c. If the rest of the month averaged about 14c, we'd be looking at a final figure of 15.5c - 16c (depending on downward adjustments).


I'm pretty confident this will be the case - barring any crazily anomalous spell not currently showing


well, I’m very confident it will end closer to your prediction than mine!  


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ARTzeman
15 September 2021 10:22:59

Met Office Hadley        17.6c       Anomaly       3.3c provisional to 14th


Metcheck                     16.73c     Anomaly       3.01c


Netweather                  17.52c     Anomaly        2.83c


Peasedown St John     17.0c      Anomaly       2.72c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Hungry Tiger
15 September 2021 14:33:47

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


Met Office Hadley        17.6c       Anomaly       3.3c provisional to 14th


Metcheck                     16.73c     Anomaly       3.01c


Netweather                  17.52c     Anomaly        2.83c


Peasedown St John     17.0c      Anomaly       2.72c.



Still very impressive and we're half way through the month.


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


ARTzeman
16 September 2021 10:20:47

Met Office Hadley       17.4c      Anomaly       3.2c provisional to 15th


Metcheck                    16.61c    Anomaly        2.89c


Netweather                17.41c     Anomaly        3.72c


Peasedown St John    16.92c    Anomaly       2.54c.  






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Others just get wet.
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Bolty
16 September 2021 15:05:50
16°C+ is looking unlikely now, I'd say. The models seem to be suggesting a fresher feel for the final third of the month. Daytime temperatures will be similar to now, but the nights look to be turning quite a bit cooler.
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
ARTzeman
17 September 2021 10:41:14

Met Office Hadley      17.4c       Anomaly     3.2c provisional to 16th


Metcheck                   16.54c     Anomaly     2.82c


Netweather                17.33c     Anomaly     3.64c


Peasedown St John   16.71c     Anomaly    2.43c. 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
18 September 2021 10:35:34

Met Office Hadley        17.3c      Anomaly     3.2c provisional to 17th


Metcheck                     16.48c    Anomaly     2.76c


Netweather                  17.27c    Anomaly     3.58c


Peasedown St John     16.6c     Anomaly     2.39c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
19 September 2021 10:29:58

Met Office Hadley      17.3c      Anomaly      3.2c provisional to 18th


Metcheck                   16.51c    Anomaly      2.79c


Netweather                17.3c      Anomaly     3.61c


Peasdeown St John   16.7c       Anomaly     2.42c.           






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
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Global Warming
19 September 2021 11:10:23

Good afternoon. I have been away on holiday for the past week so not had a chance to post any updates for a while.


Latest CET estimate for September is 15.77C. So a steady fall off for the rest of the month as would be expected. Temperatures should stay slightly above average until the final three days of the month, mainly due to mild nights. Final September CET could be very similar to August.


Despite the fall off in the CET in the second half of the month this could still be the 7th warmest September on record. The CET has reached 16C or more on 6 occasions in September. We have never had a 15.8C or 15.9C September.


IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page


Chart 1


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Chart 2

ARTzeman
20 September 2021 10:22:36

Met Office Hadley      17.2c      Anomaly       3.2c provisional to 19th


Metcheck                   16.37c    Anomaly       2.65c


Netweather                17.2c     Anomaly        3.51c


Peasedown St John   16.7c     Anomaly       2.4c.  






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Others just get wet.
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