FFS, I'm going to have a sh*t time in Scotland, I just know it. 

If it's going to be rainy, I'm going to pack up and come home.

Knew we should have gone to Devon/Cornwall.

 

 

Don't know if you ever got my reply to your pm. Tried to send you a couple links recently but your inbox full.  I was down loch lomond today and the midges were out, not millions, but starting to appear now that the hot dry spell has ended.

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WX Summaries still offering 'jam tomorrow' - warmer and drier weather working up from the south but that still in week 2 rather than week 1. MetO for this location still stuck around 20C for the next week with quite frequent showers. At one stage this week was due to be fine and sunny in the south but it's turned out very nediocre and that's before tomorrow's  heavy rain.

As for the detailed models 

Fax shows LP currently developing to the SW to be 992mb Ireland tomorrow with fronts moving across the UK and the LP itself still identifiable off NE Scotland on Sunday

Jet - very strong to SW of UK tomorrow and Friday, forecast pepped up since yesterday.It then buckles ito a loop round the UK over the weekend, breaks up Wed 11th, but isolated streaks continue in the region of the UK until Mon 16th before it stands off in the Atlantic.An interesting cut-off low shown near Finisterre on final frame Fri 20th. All in all considerably more active than shown yesterday.

GFS op - trough over UK moving from SW to N until Mon 9th followed by a period of mostly W-ly flow with HP over the S and pressure decreasing as you go N-wards; occasional small troughs passing by Wed 11th and Mon 16th. Then a  bump of HP pushes in from the SW and develops into a broad ridge  from UK to Norway, well established by Fri 20th

GEFS - temps agreed in all runs as starting cool (in Scotland near norm) but back to norm by Wed 11th after which the various runs diverge so much that no conclusion can be drawn (mean stays near norm, individual runs typically +/- 5C from this). Small amounts of rain continue. 

ECM - takes a different view after Wed 11th, a rather deep LP appears in the Atlantic, at first bringing up some warm air from the S but settling directly over UK 1000mb with a cold pool Sat 14th

ATM I wouldn't put any money on any outcomes for more than a week ahead

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Don't know if you ever got my reply to your pm. Tried to send you a couple links recently but your inbox full.  I was down loch lomond today and the midges were out, not millions, but starting to appear now that the hot dry spell has ended.

 

I did - and thanks for replying.

I've got head nets, both Smidge and a DEET-based repellant, and will be taking plug-in anti-mozzy things for inside the lodge.

Got a horsefly bite the other week. Not nice.

 

I've got my MO focus on that week as a whole, and output has been a bit varied (as you'd expect in FI). I'd absolutely take this, though, from the 00z GFS:

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Looks like the Jetstream will remain quite strong and displaced slightly further South than normal. A mixed bag probably with slightly warmer/drier weather and the occasional short spurts of heat would be my guess for the rest of August.

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GFS picking up on some scorchio runs later next week, including the Op with 30c+
EC suite also has some marked heat shown albeit slightly later on.
Hot middle to end of August is a distinct possibility IMO.

Progressive though not dramatic improvement in the summary charts over the next 2 weeks wrt both temp and rainfall, the SE coming off best ad the NW lagging behind

GFS op - trough moving in this weekend and then drifting N to be out of the way by Mon 9th followed by a W-ly flow and a  rise in pressure from the S. There is then a 'battle' between HP in the SE and LP to the NW - HP dominant Thu 12th, displaced by trough (which has been winding up near the Hebrides)over all UK Sun 15th. Another big LP to the NW Tue 17th but this time making no progress and strong HP 1030mb sets up over N Sea Fri 20th. looking quite hot - maybe just a hint of a Spanish plume on Sat 21st.

GEFS - temps back to norm in the S Wed 11th, but little agreement after that; op run on the warm side around Sat 14th and Thu 19th but counterbalanced by other runs. Less rain than shown yesterday and in short bursts. For Scotland, mean temp close to norm throughout and rather more rain though nothing dramatic. The peaks of the op run affect the N as well as the S

ECM - similar to GFS though HP less dominant Thu 12th and the LP for Sun 15th approaches from the SW, not NW

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Overall I think the picture has got worse today. The GFS Ens is a downgrade from this time yesterday and ECM is mediocre at best. The jam always appears in the distant future. I'm not convinced of anything better than typical August weather after the wet and windy weekend.

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Overall I think the picture has got worse today. The GFS Ens is a downgrade from this time yesterday and ECM is mediocre at best. The jam always appears in the distant future. I'm not convinced of anything better than typical August weather after the wet and windy weekend.

I agree. Ensemble mean is around average in FI whereas it had crept above in the last few days.

Reasonably dry though so not a washout

The hunt for a spanish plume goes on... (some hints later in the charts, but nothing in the reliable)

 

we could go all summer with nothing in our weather from spain.  I cant remember a summer where we didnt have even just one.

 

very odd summer this year

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The hunt for a spanish plume goes on... (some hints later in the charts, but nothing in the reliable)

 

we could go all summer with nothing in our weather from spain.  I cant remember a summer where we didnt have even just one.

 

very odd summer this year

Yes it' s been a feature (or not!) of the summer

GFS still has the persistent general pattern in FI of the AH and SH ridging towards each other to bring nice conditions to the UK from the middle/end of next week, but with tough digging SE'wards over the UK to break that link over the weekend, before the link reestablishes.

 

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GFS still has the persistent general pattern in FI of the AH and SH ridging towards each other to bring nice conditions to the UK from the middle/end of next week, but with tough digging SE'wards over the UK to break that link over the weekend, before the link reestablishes.

 

 

The 6z reaches the same conclusion, but takes a slightly different path to get there!

 

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6Z GFS looks pretty decent with some quite warm conditions for the second half of August. Reasonably optimistic for the remainder of the school hols.

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6Z GFS looks pretty decent with some quite warm conditions for the second half of August. Reasonably optimistic for the remainder of the school hols.

12z is looking even better. Setting up a long, settled, warm spell (if it's right).

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12z is looking even better. Setting up a long, settled, warm spell (if it's right).

 

12z is abysmal in FI. Shows a huge vigourous low to the NW of the UK pushing the high pressure southwards. 

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ECM keeping it unsettled right till next weekend, it does then show a nice ridge building over the UK but very much FI by then.

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A generally un-summery outlook until end of FI; a definite decline since yesterday

Jet - current loop over France enclosing the UK fades briefly but is replaced by more loops and these more tightly drawn round the UK until finally Sun 22nd the jet moves off to the north.

GFS - a series of LPs with brief ridges of HP between (current LP 995 mb N Ireland, then 985mb SW Ireland Thu 12th and 995 mb Scotland Tue 17th, the first two moving NE and the last S-wards), Final frame shows bump of HP moving in,  over Cornwall 1025mb Sun 22nd

GEFS - mean stays close to norm, but in the S rather below, until around Fri 20th when some improvement. Just a few warm outliers for the S (including the op) and rather more variation in the N. Rain frequent and fairly heavy in Scotland, drier in the S esp around Wed 11th

ECM - differs in holding the LPs a bit further W so some hope for the SE, and indeed scarcely develops the last LP suggesting comparatively fine weather for all UK (yesterday's 12z for end of run as I post, could go either way)

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Well it looks like I may have spoken to soon. Next week is now looking a bit ropy even in the south, so what was looking like a fairly settled week on the Isle of Wight might not be after all.

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Any hopes of a mid month heatwave now look to have disappeared, maybe late August/September is the last chance for a final taste of Summer, but August looking a very unsettled month.

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Any hopes of a mid month heatwave now look to have disappeared, maybe late August/September is the last chance for a final taste of Summer, but August looking a very unsettled month.

 

 

Yep.

For a few days FI (mid-Aug) was looking peachy, but it's looking like a bad November now

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