I know FI is want to flip about, but when you're focusing on one specific period, it's alarming to see just how much differences there can be run to run.

Emotional roller-coaster, and makes any sort of planning pointless.

[quote=moomin75;1368021]

Yep, I accept you guys have had a very decent summer by the sounds if it, but down here it has been pretty horrendous.

[/quote. 
 Only 50 miles from you Moomin and it’s been ok here just normal summer weather for the Uk

we cannot expect to get weeks of hot and sunny weather here in the uk every year it’s certainly never happened in the past.

i expect a warm end to summer and drier too with some decent weather in September too. 

I've got to say having had a good look across the NWP that this week (certainly for the SE) is looking pretty good with temps climbing into the mid 20's. Even the small blip Thursday evening passes with a general rise in pressure following thanks to a small but effective looking ridge. By next Sunday it looks hot.

We don't talk about next week though for now. 

Happy days. 

Blimey Steve, you are in danger of discussing the output. steady on.

To my eye we are steadily heading to a much warmer second half of the month and next week begins to see signs of the transition.  At first in the SE.

Output remains volatile this morning.  Better in the south . ECM is better for everyone though. 

wx summary - a little warmer, esp in SE; focus of rain shifts from NW Scotland in week 1 to England in week 2

GFS op - current trough covering quite a large area but filling by end of week; new LP moving N off W coast  990 mb near Hebrides Fri 13th which then morphs into another broad and shallow trough over all UK Sun 16th which takes its time to fill; there is then a general rise in pressure but a well-defined ridge, aligned N-S, has to wait until Mon 21st

GEFS - mean temps near norm throughout though wide divergence of runs after Mon 16th; weak indication of above norm arouns Fri 13th and again after Fri 20th. This week (after today) dry in S, only small amounts of rain thereafter; Scotland, some rain throughout but not excessive. 

Not much agreement between the above forecasts even though all based on GFS model.

ECM - the LP on FRi 13th moves in closer and fills more quickly; strong rise of pressure covering all UK 1025 mb Tue 17th and still there end of run Thu 19th

Yeah, GFS is very 'bitty' for next week, lots of slack pressure and probably showers about.

ECM looks pretty decent, to be honest. Ridges the AH over us then builds it over the UK to give everyone a nice midweek-onwards. I'd grab it with both hands if I could but the models have been all over the place for next week (since it came into range, GFS has shown everything from storms to long-fetch northerlies to heatwave) so expect the ECM to be showing the opposite come next run.

GFS 6z more into line with the ECM evolution, so sort of agreement.

#fingerscrossed

12z GFS continues the theme.

GEM lobs a big fat fly into the ointment, mind

(sets up a brilliant weekend for the south, though, with a very plumey looking set-up, then extends that northwards through Sunday to central/eastern UK; western UK more affected by a dirty low that sets up residence to the west of Ireland before inching over the UK to spread its filth)

Warming up and drying up from the S (though some potential thundery rain over France week 2)

jet - loops around the UK to Mon 16th (rather conflicts with MetO forecast of fine weather this week) then stands off to the N allowing HP to develop over UK until end of run Thu 26th when new streak aimed directly at England.

FAX - LP in Atlantic eventually runs NE-wards across Hebrides 1002 mb Fri 13th with another LP in SW approaches 1010mb Sat 14th. A mess of fronts everywhere.

GFS Op makes more of the LP Sat 14th and runs it up to  Scotland Sun 15th 995 mb; then a general rise of pressure 1030mb widely by Wed 18th. This persists despite close approaches of LP from the S Fri 20th and from the NW Thu 26th (the latter looks as if it might take over)

GEFS - above norm Fri 13th, below Mon 16th, then mean stays near norm with wide scatter (but Op noticeably bullish 7 or 8 C above norm for rest of period to 26th). Very little rain in S, rather more from time to time in N. 

ECM - the weekend's LP approaches more from the W than the SW and is slower to fill and clear away, but the pattern is similar to GFS

Yes, good Op runs today. Ensembles less so but the trend is reasonable for the middle third of August and perhaps beyond. 

Agreed. Not heatwave stuff, but dry and settled for most.

Summaries looking steadily warmer and for the SE at least becoming very dry week 2

GFS Op - LP anchored near N Scotland with small secondary drifting up from sW to N England Sat 14th. Pressure begins to rise but unlike yesterday only over Scotland with new LP from France 1000mb SE England Fri 20th, more general rise in pressure from Mon 23rd to cover all of UK by Wed 25th. Traces of an ex-hurricane showing in mid-Atlantic at this time but not coming close.

GEFS - warm to Mon 16th (more like norm in N), cool to Mon 23rd, then erratically warm. Some rain around Fri 20th in S, more like Mon 16th in N

ECM - shows the more general rise in pressure starting Mon 16th but only slowly creeping in from SW with a spell of N/NW winds on its flank

UM is interesting. Very warm uppers coming across the Atlantic.

No doubt converting to low cloud and drizzle by the time it arrives in Western Scotland 

Looks like it's an area of hot air moving around a large AH and not being overly modified?

GFS & ECM have a similarish evolution, although with less warm uppers.

I'd love it to come off! (although without the low cloud a drizzle that GezM merrily suggested ) 

Warm uppers coming in from the N. Atlantic like that only spell one thing for those of us exposed to the W/NW flow:

And with a sickening humidity to it as well. 

Now you see it, now you don't! Complete switch in wx summaries since yesterday showing cooler weather for all and much wetter for England in week 2, quite contrary to previous forecast.

Jet currently running W-E across UK, switches to N-S Tue 17th, and then fades for a few days before enclosing UK in a loop Sun 22nd. W-E flow then resumes across England esp strong Fri 27th

GFS Op - LP moving in from Atlantic to N Scotland 1005 mb Sat 14th and a secondary then from SW across Ireland to reinforce the original. HP then builds to W but not close enough to shift the LP, by Tue 17th over Scandinavia, and sticking there to give a spell of N/NW winds to Sat 21st before retrogressing to UK Sun 22nd. New LP brewing on Atlantic then moves in to take over, 990mb SW approaches Sat 28th 

GEFS - temps dropping off to the cool side Mon 16th, staying there to Sun 22nd when most runs are warm enough to lift the mean above norm(but op & control stay cool). A little rain from time to time in S after Mon 16th (Yes, this contradicts the wx above), slightly more in N

ECM - similar to GFS to  Fri 20th when the Scandi LP relaxes its grip and by end of run Sun 22nd strong rise of pressure over Britain , 1025mb in SW

Not saying you're wrong, but the ECM ENS looks fairly solid mid term. I'd not be surprised to see the UK Met going for a more settled scenario.