Hints of something briefly plumey in the SE on Thursday and again the following Monday ahead of advancing low pressure as emphasised on ECM. The weather looks "OK" in the south but nothing more after this weekend. Less so in the north

Oh bollocks.

GFS brings more of the same. I'm going to have a wet 7 days in Scotland 

Oh bollocks.

GFS brings more of the same. I'm going to have a wet 7 days in Scotland 

I think it is now fair to say, while not a total write off, this summer has been pretty awful for many.

 

Absolutely.

A topsy-turvy allocation of decent and rubbish weather for some periods, compared to the norm, but August so far has been unsettled for all, and lacking even moderately warmish (+75f).

 

 

Absolutely.

A topsy-turvy allocation of decent and rubbish weather for some periods, compared to the norm, but August so far has been unsettled for all, and lacking even moderately warmish (+75f).

 

 

Hasn’t it been quite nice up here, Saint? I feel like we’ve had a fairly decent summer.

Maybe I’m just being glass half full again. 😂

WX summaries continue to suggest an Atlantic-influenced summer, with cool weather all the way across N Europe for the next to weeks and rain esp on the western edge of that (i.e. the UK). In week 2 drier and warmer weather taking over in S France but not yet getting to the Channel coast.

Jetstream  rather more disorganised than forecast yesterday, but still with loops and fragments of loops in the neighbourhood of the UK through to Mon 23rd. At the end (FI!) yesterday's suggestion that the jet would take itself off to the north has been replaced by an extremely strong streak directly aimed at W Scotland Mon 23rd.

GFS - as yesterday, a number of LPs running across from the Atlantic, but today's charts show a better chance of these LPs bringing up a day or two's warmth from the S as they approach before the centre over the UK cools things down again. (LP today Clyde 990mb, Fri 13th Malin 995 mb, Wed 18th sliding SW into Biscay) On Mon 23rd, a combination of large LP 985mb Greenland straits and an intense hurricane (looks as if still hurricane status) 970 mb mid-Atlantic generates a long fetch from the SW - warm, humid, and a chance to break up the existing pattern.

GEFS = in the S, mean temps near norm ( a little above Fri 13th) but in week 2, the number of warm scenarios has increased since yesterday (still a majority just below norm to maintain the balance). Rain for next few days, rather dry thereafter. In Scotland mean temps similar but fewer warm outliers and rain from time to time throughout.

ECM - similar to GFS at first, better chance of a general rise in pressure after Fri 13th

 

Hasn’t it been quite nice up here, Saint? I feel like we’ve had a fairly decent summer.

Maybe I’m just being glass half full again. 😂

Oh it has - I was meaning topsy-turvy in respect of the areas that have had decent summer weather (the West, the North West, West Scotland, Ireland) and those that have had poor (the SE). Me and the kids were swimming in Ullswater weekend before last, and in the sea at Anglesey a couple weeks before that.

But August has been poor overall pretty much everywhere.

The see-saw in FI has swung slightly toward better and dry, after a few days of runs showing awful and wet.

No change in summary so here is cut-and paste "WX summaries continue to suggest an Atlantic-influenced summer, with cool weather all the way across N Europe for the next to weeks and rain esp on the western edge of that (i.e. the UK). In week 2 drier and warmer weather taking over in S France but not yet getting to the Channel coast."

Jet similar to yesterday at first - loops and fragments of loops around the UK to Tue 17th - then a different outlook with two streams, one well No UK and the other to the S (suggesting HP over Britain) Fri 20th. The N branch fades quickly; the S branch fades slowly but drifts close to S Britain Mon 23rd

GFS  - current LP filling and after weak ridge of HP, new LP Scotland 1000mb Sat 14th. Ridge of HP then sets up over all of UK aligned NW-SE and persists to Sat 21st before the LP over Biscay which has been threatening finally moves N as a weak trough 1015mb England Mon 23rd. The ex-hurricane noted yesterday no longer appears, and the rest of the forecast for week 2 is also rather different.

GEFS - temps slowly rising to above norm Fri 13th after which although the mean stays near norm, there is great disagreement between runs so anything could happen - perhaps a signal for cooler at first (better agreement on this for the N) and warmer later. In the S rain around for the next couple of days, then bone dry to Mon 16th and a few spits and spots thereafter, in the N, small amounts of rain on and off in different runs throughout

ECM - Similar to GFS to Sun 15th but the ridge of HP never gets going; instead the LP over Biscay develops quickly Mon 16th affecting the SW & Ireland but then fills just as quickly leaving the UK under a broad area of HP from mid-Atlantic to Baltic Wed 18th

I think it is now fair to say, while not a total write off, this summer has been pretty awful for many.

 

Not here, and I think many other parts of Scotland too.

A lot of grass has been going brown here recently; there is no way that would happen in any summer that I considered to be 'pretty awful'.

 

Not here, and I think many other parts of Scotland too.

A lot of grass has been going brown here recently; there is no way that would happen in any summer that I considered to be 'pretty awful'.

I know FI is want to flip about, but when you're focusing on one specific period, it's alarming to see just how much differences there can be run to run.

Emotional roller-coaster, and makes any sort of planning pointless.

Yep, I accept you guys have had a very decent summer by the sounds if it, but down here it has been pretty horrendous.

[/quote. 
 Only 50 miles from you Moomin and it’s been ok here just normal summer weather for the Uk

we cannot expect to get weeks of hot and sunny weather here in the uk every year it’s certainly never happened in the past.

i expect a warm end to summer and drier too with some decent weather in September too. 

I've got to say having had a good look across the NWP that this week (certainly for the SE) is looking pretty good with temps climbing into the mid 20's. Even the small blip Thursday evening passes with a general rise in pressure following thanks to a small but effective looking ridge. By next Sunday it looks hot.

We don't talk about next week though for now. 

Happy days. 

I've got to say having had a good look across the NWP that this week (certainly for the SE) is looking pretty good with temps climbing into the mid 20's. Even the small blip Thursday evening passes with a general rise in pressure following thanks to a small but effective looking ridge. By next Sunday it looks hot.

We don't talk about next week though for now. 

Happy days. 

Blimey Steve, you are in danger of discussing the output. steady on.

To my eye we are steadily heading to a much warmer second half of the month and next week begins to see signs of the transition.  At first in the SE.

Output remains volatile this morning.  Better in the south . ECM is better for everyone though. 

wx summary - a little warmer, esp in SE; focus of rain shifts from NW Scotland in week 1 to England in week 2

GFS op - current trough covering quite a large area but filling by end of week; new LP moving N off W coast  990 mb near Hebrides Fri 13th which then morphs into another broad and shallow trough over all UK Sun 16th which takes its time to fill; there is then a general rise in pressure but a well-defined ridge, aligned N-S, has to wait until Mon 21st

GEFS - mean temps near norm throughout though wide divergence of runs after Mon 16th; weak indication of above norm arouns Fri 13th and again after Fri 20th. This week (after today) dry in S, only small amounts of rain thereafter; Scotland, some rain throughout but not excessive. 

Not much agreement between the above forecasts even though all based on GFS model.

ECM - the LP on FRi 13th moves in closer and fills more quickly; strong rise of pressure covering all UK 1025 mb Tue 17th and still there end of run Thu 19th

ECM is better for everyone though. 

Yeah, GFS is very 'bitty' for next week, lots of slack pressure and probably showers about.

ECM looks pretty decent, to be honest. Ridges the AH over us then builds it over the UK to give everyone a nice midweek-onwards. I'd grab it with both hands if I could but the models have been all over the place for next week (since it came into range, GFS has shown everything from storms to long-fetch northerlies to heatwave) so expect the ECM to be showing the opposite come next run.

 

 

Yeah, GFS is very 'bitty' for next week, lots of slack pressure and probably showers about.

ECM looks pretty decent, to be honest. Ridges the AH over us then builds it over the UK to give everyone a nice midweek-onwards. I'd grab it with both hands if I could but the models have been all over the place for next week (since it came into range, GFS has shown everything from storms to long-fetch northerlies to heatwave) so expect the ECM to be showing the opposite come next run.

 

 

GFS 6z more into line with the ECM evolution, so sort of agreement.

#fingerscrossed