I am off ot Antigua on Friday. That shoud guarantee a turnaround to good weather while I am away.  The moment I for Rome last August, it turned much hotter here.

I'd bank the GFS 6z, relatively cool but a good long dry spell

I'd bank the GEFS mean.

FFS, I'm going to have a sh*t time in Scotland, I just know it. 

If it's going to be rainy, I'm going to pack up and come home.

Knew we should have gone to Devon/Cornwall.

FFS, I'm going to have a sh*t time in Scotland, I just know it. 

If it's going to be rainy, I'm going to pack up and come home.

Knew we should have gone to Devon/Cornwall.

 

I spent 10 almost completely rain-drenched days there last summer but still enjoyed it. At the least the rain kept the midges at bay. 

 

I spent 10 almost completely rain-drenched days there last summer but still enjoyed it. At the least the rain kept the midges at bay. 

always a good thing  https://twitter.com/Tramplite/status/1420011232673865731?s=08

This is actually a pretty interesting spell of model watching - always is when there's a pattern change that may or may not happen, but even more so when as now it's basically our last chance for a meaningful influence on the narrative of this summer. If we get warm dry weather for the last 2/3 of August then 2021 goes down as a mixed but decent summer, better in the North. If it fails to arrive and August is poor then 2021 goes down as a bad summer, worse in the South.

ICON as always first out and clinging to the bad-summer narrative. Zonal and cloudy up to 180hrs:

Might still improve from there though, as a number of the ensemble runs on GEFS are slow to start but then build later that week. Trouble is that's no use for my summer holiday. I need the improvement to start on Saturday.

 

I spent 10 almost completely rain-drenched days there last summer but still enjoyed it. At the least the rain kept the midges at bay. 

I wouldn't actually mind a bit of rain just now, as our gardens could really do with that.

 

I wouldn't actually mind a bit of rain just now, as our gardens could really do with that.

 

You're welcome to ours.

Having just made the mistake of perusing the 12z GFS.  

Some more lovely heat building to our south on tonight’s ECM. If we get some plume activity and tap into that Iberian airmass, we could be in business for a boiling spell in about a week’s time.

Some more lovely heat building to our south on tonight’s ECM. If we get some plume activity and tap into that Iberian airmass, we could be in business for a boiling spell in about a week’s time.

Not much sign of any heat advecting northwards on that run though.

 

Not much sign of any heat advecting northwards on that run though.

Certainly not on the Op.

GEFS pack more encouraging as we head into next week but too far out for reliability, especially in the current set up

My colleague left Cornwall a week early even though weather was nice. Mobbed, no parking, no restaurant bookings available, cars everywhere. So you take your chances!  

My colleague left Cornwall a week early even though weather was nice. Mobbed, no parking, no restaurant bookings available, cars everywhere. So you take your chances!  

Little change in the 2-week summary: "after an indifferent week overall, becoming warmer and drier in the SE, staying cool and damp in the NW". It's noticeable that all of France and Germany have temps well below average week 1, and rest of N Europe not much better.

Jet - looping down over France for h next week, and brushing the UK as it moves away. Then a quiet period before it extends a loop down over the UK Sun 15th, again leaving a N-ly streak over UK as it moves away Thu 19th

GFS op - current zonal flow drags in LP 995 mb Ireland Fri 6th  which moves N allowing HP to establish over the S Tue 10th (1025mb off Cornwall ) but weakens Sun 15th as trough extends S from Iceland and takes up residence in the N Sea (1010mb NE England Thu 19th) while pressure rises all around that centre

GEFS - good agreement on temps rising to norm (Scotland reaching that target earlier) by Wed 11th after which mean of runs stays near norm but with wide spread of forecasts. Small amounts of rain, more so in week 1.

ECM - differs from GFS after the 10th; instead a new LP develops mid-Atlantic at first bringing up warmth from the S  but moves W to N Ireland 995mb Fri 13th and looking unsettled for all UK at that point

My colleague left Cornwall a week early even though weather was nice. Mobbed, no parking, no restaurant bookings available, cars everywhere. So you take your chances!  

Cornwall in the summer is always busy. If you are planning on coming down be at your chosen destination early (before 9am) otherwise you’ll struggle to park and get frustrated.

I live down here and if on my day off I want to go to a beach I am there by 08:30.

If we are in for a changeable next couple of weeks but you want to make the most of the beaches buy a nice pop up tent so if you get a shower your fine. 
It does look like the middle of next week will improve especially down here for a few days at least.

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Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.

6Z GFS looks pretty decent even for more northerly areas in the second half.

The ever reliable “back to school effect” in Scotland. 

6Z GFS looks pretty decent even for more northerly areas in the second half.

Looks good countrywide. 

Positive: the broad pattern of the AH ridging NE/NNE'wards over the UK towards high pressure over/to the north of Scandinavia had shown in several GFS runs, before the model shied away from this scenario for a few runs.

Negative: it's still very much in the FI/low-res portion of the run

The ever reliable “back to school effect” in Scotland.  

I knew there was a reason I'd chosen the w/c 14th Aug to visit