Not sure which plot you are looking at but the raw data is going for 34C min.

I was using the GEFS tabular data on Meteociel. That shows 6 hourly temperatures but not the overall max, but I would still expect the 6pm temp to be higher than 29C!  Meteociel.fr - Tableaux GEFS v12

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I was using the GEFS tabular data on Meteociel. That shows 6 hourly temperatures but not the overall max, but I would still expect the 6pm temp to be higher than 29C!  Meteociel.fr - Tableaux GEFS v12

Even the GFS 366 (which is on that table) has 33C, so I suspect it is more to do with grid points than anything else.

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That GFS 06z run has certainly raised the interest levels today lol! 

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The jet stream seems to be in a buckled, 'skipping rope' state over the Atlantic currently; but can someone explain please why the loops to the S of us, when they arrive recently, seem to be:

a) More persistent than the N'ly loops

b) farther reaching from the mean path?

 

Thank you.

 

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Some insane heat building over Iberia for 2nd week of August. Still plenty of time for a major pattern change and some record heat for the British isles…

A Timelapse of Storm Evert passing just to the south of my home. Watch the clouds do a 180 at about 30 seconds!

 

https://i.imgur.com/6BvBqCJ.mp4

 

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A Timelapse of Storm Evert passing just to the south of my home. Watch the clouds do a 180 at about 30 seconds!

 

https://i.imgur.com/6BvBqCJ.mp4

 

Wow. That is incredible. Thanks for posting 

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A Timelapse of Storm Evert passing just to the south of my home. Watch the clouds do a 180 at about 30 seconds!

 

https://i.imgur.com/6BvBqCJ.mp4

 

Impressive! 

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Right, I'm going to be looking for sunny, warm and breezy in the west of Jockland for the 14th - 21st Aug.

A forlorn hope? 

 

 

GFS teasing me, I see

 

 

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Nice GFS again. ECM still mot on board at 240hrs - much stormier.

10 hour Channel ferry crossing next Friday looking “fun”.

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This is an important chart: the ensemble mean for ECM at 240 hours.

Not amazing, but pressure above 1015 in the South and significantly better than its equivalent at 00z or yesterday’s 12z.

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Even the GFS 366 (which is on that table) has 33C, so I suspect it is more to do with grid points than anything else.

That is a very credible chart. It's over 2 weeks away but it's got a high chance of verifying. How do I know? 33C in Southern England but a cool(and no doubt drizzly)18C here - that's credible. 

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A Timelapse of Storm Evert passing just to the south of my home. Watch the clouds do a 180 at about 30 seconds!

 

https://i.imgur.com/6BvBqCJ.mp4

 

Great time lapse ! 

WX - cool and generally damp week 1, warming up week 2 with rain mostly in NW and SE

GFS Op - Uk sitting in broad trough which hangs back from controlling LP in Scandi with N'y winds; this going round to W-ly as HP mid Atlantic declines S-wards. LP moves in with this flow Fri 6th to 990 mb C England with sub 552dam air. A secondary takes over 1000mb N Ireland Sun 8th but fails to make progress and is suppressed by a substantial rise in pressure with broad ridge of HP from well to SW up to N Norway by Thu 12th. This strengthens and brings in some very warm air by Sun 15th, before being squeezed by LPs to NW and SE. The final frame on Mon 16th suggest that the remains of a hurricane may be present in the W Atlantic by then (about time!)

GEFS - mean temps close to or a little below norm throughout; the GFS optimism above only appears in a few outliers, including the Op run. Some rain on and off to around Fri 6th and declining therafter (Scotland is affected by a colder drier spell for the next couple of days)

ECM - fits in an extra LP Wed 4th before a weaker LP Fri 6th, and does not manage to show a general rise in pressure at end of run Tue 10th with trough still intruding from NW

 

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ECM - fits in an extra LP Wed 4th before a weaker LP Fri 6th, and does not manage to show a general rise in pressure at end of run Tue 10th with trough still intruding from NW

 

Not sure I can agree with that summary for ECM. It vastly improves for the majority on 9th.

Not sure I can agree with that summary for ECM. It vastly improves for the majority on 9th.

I was a bit pressed for time when I posted earlier.

If I looked at ECM Mon 9th in isolation, I'd agree - pressure has risen strongly from the south over the previous 24 hours. But Tue 10th spoils things with that HP being shouldered aside by the trough re-extending down from Iceland, bringing sub552 dam air as far south as the Hebrides, and the 1020 mb isobar which developed so strongly on Monday's chart retreating back to Cornwall

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A nice warm westerly look on the 06z GFS op run beyond day 10. Hopefully that trend will continue.

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With GEM now also settling down from around the 10th, several GFS runs in a row doing likewise and the GEFS now switching to average of above from the 11th (and this morning’s ECM showing promising signs) are we now getting close to being able to call pattern change for the second decade of August?

I dearly hope so. My 1 week summer holiday straggles it. Already resigned to Friday to Sunday being crap but it would be nice to end on a sunny note.

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ECM doing just about enough by 216 and 240 hours to suggest it’s feeling a pattern change too.

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ECM doing just about enough by 216 and 240 hours to suggest it’s feeling a pattern change too.

Looking further from here the extreme repeat killer heatwave are back in Cyprus and the SE Europe again.  Kita weather site for Cyprus show the model chart of NW Europe with UK suffering the most cold and unsettled and very red hot boundary from edge of SE Europe SE wards.  

This was unknown or unheard in the past when you can drive from very cold and wet zone to killer heat zone within couples of miles away.  44-45C over there and very cold 16-18C here.  In the past you expect here around low to mid 20's daily for this time of the peak summer time regardless if unsettled or settled but never persistent cold all the time when 40C or over in the Med heatwaves.

If you saying about the pattern change it only can change if we return back to the 90's type which spread the heat more widely and not in NW/SE Europe zone split that been running for 2nd year now.  

If the models really think we get settled spell by mid-August that will be extremely long wait and more daylight losses to come.