WX - cool and generally damp week 1, warming up week 2 with rain mostly in NW and SE
GFS Op - Uk sitting in broad trough which hangs back from controlling LP in Scandi with N'y winds; this going round to W-ly as HP mid Atlantic declines S-wards. LP moves in with this flow Fri 6th to 990 mb C England with sub 552dam air. A secondary takes over 1000mb N Ireland Sun 8th but fails to make progress and is suppressed by a substantial rise in pressure with broad ridge of HP from well to SW up to N Norway by Thu 12th. This strengthens and brings in some very warm air by Sun 15th, before being squeezed by LPs to NW and SE. The final frame on Mon 16th suggest that the remains of a hurricane may be present in the W Atlantic by then (about time!)
GEFS - mean temps close to or a little below norm throughout; the GFS optimism above only appears in a few outliers, including the Op run. Some rain on and off to around Fri 6th and declining therafter (Scotland is affected by a colder drier spell for the next couple of days)
ECM - fits in an extra LP Wed 4th before a weaker LP Fri 6th, and does not manage to show a general rise in pressure at end of run Tue 10th with trough still intruding from NW
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl