ECM belting up some beaters from the heat station now, only from 9th Aug 🥊 ☀️

GFS supporting the heatwave scenario from 9th August, looking a very good possibility now, not just an outsider…

Wx summaries show warmth increasing significantly in the SE in week 2, but N Scotland if anything a touch cooler. Significant rain in most places week 1 but now looking much drier in week 2.

Jet - loop persisting over France until Sun 8th (with one edge of it shifting to be very strong over the Channel Fri 6th) after which it moves away well to the N; but back to N Scotland Sun 15th and running down the N Sea Tue 17th. A prospect of a week's settled weather?

GFS op - current N-ly switching round to a gentle W-ly until disrupted by 985mb Malin Thu 5th filling as it moves NE across Scotland. HP then appears from the SW ad is well established with warm air feed by Tue 10th (1025mb S England) but interrupted by LP 1000mb passing across Scotland into N Sea Sun 15th before re-establishing Tue 17th.

GEFS - cool and occasionally damp spell continues until Mon 9th after which drier and a majority of runs (but by no means all ) switch to the warm side with mean 2-3C above norm, and also drier in the S.

ECM - develops the LP from Thu 5th and puts it squarely over the UK Sun 8th (centre 995mb Cornwall) before a much weaker version of the HP creeps in on Tue 10th with broad trough of LP from mid-Atlantic to Iceland close enough to affect the NW

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ECM ensemble mean, 240hrs. Getting there, though no heatwave - this looks like the canonical summer pressure chart. 

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ECM ensemble mean, 240hrs. Getting there, though no heatwave - this looks like the canonical summer pressure chart. 

 

Persistent general pattern of high pressure to our NE and SW.

At times they ridge our way enough to bring settled weather here, occasionally joining up.

The fly always, of course, comes in the shape of Atlantic low incursion from the NW. 

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Could still go wrong but the GFS/GEFS have been unusually consistent in the 10 to 15 day range for several days. Reminds me a little of the December 2009 cold spell which they picked up at a similar range. GEFS35 suggests an increased chance of dry and warm periods during the second half of the month too.

 

 

 

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ECM still having to be dragged kicking and screaming towards any semblance of dry weather though. 12z actually more unsettled at 240hrs than 00z. Until the world’s most accurate medium range model opts in I’m not counting chickens.

Meanwhile we continue to suffer (in the South) the most Novemberish summer in decades.

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ECM still having to be dragged kicking and screaming towards any semblance of dry weather though. 12z actually more unsettled at 240hrs than 00z. Until the world’s most accurate medium range model opts in I’m not counting chickens.

Meanwhile we continue to suffer (in the South) the most Novemberish summer in decades.

Yes ECM nowhere near as bullish as GFS to bring warmer more settled weather in the second week of August. Also the GFS opp runs keep on being either at the top of the ensembles pack or sometimes very much outliers so no guarantee there will be a significant improvement mid month.

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FWIW the ECM 12z op has picked a noticeably drier solution than the last few IMBY and there's more warmer scatter appearing in the ens, suggesting the chances of warmer weather increase too. Synoptically I'd agree though the T240 isn't too promising with the Azores HP flattening and things look poised for some more unsettled weather to come in from the Atlantic. 

The ECM ens are still bullish on a noticeably pressure increase post next weekend, although current run has the pressure gradually dropping back after a few days. That's deep FI of course so I'd say things are looking good for a warmer and drier interlude after this weekend but how long that lasts is uncertain, assuming the general pattern verifies.

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This morning’s runs have shifted a bit from the recent direction. Remaining more zonal, but with higher pressure to the South. OKish but not amazing.

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Summary: after an indifferent week overall, becoming warmer and drier in the SE, staying cool and damp in the NW

GFS - a more or less westerly zonal pattern with alternately LPs pushing down from the N and HP re-bounding from the S (LP Sat 7th 995mb Scotland particularly cool, and 995mb Shetland Tue 17th; HP 1025mb S Coast Wed 11th)

GEFS - less variation in temps than GFS Op suggests, for the S gradually rising to norm Tue 10th and the mean staying at the norm but with a lot of variation thereafter; small amounts of rain from tie to time. Scotland nearer the norm throughout but with extra variation after the 10th and also rather more rain.

ECM - similar pattern to GFS (but not much like yesterday's ECM) though the HP is Tue 10th not Wed 11th and doesn't last as long; there's a trough extending S from Iceland by Thu 12th

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Distinctly disappointing stuff from the models today. The hints of an improvement for mid-month seem to be rapidly fading. Fortunately we are going to the Isle of Wight so will hopefully still be able to benefit from the ever shrinking zone of high pressure to the south, but even on the south coast we are now seeing troughs from the north poking their nose in.

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Something has tickled their tummies overnight for sure. The 35 day output (initiated 24 hours earlier) looks inconsistent with the short to medium range stuff. Disappointing because there had been a level of consistency for several days, although the ECM op (and perhaps ensembles)  was more inconclusive.

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ECM now confining a very brief settled spell to the far South next week. Definitely a deteriorating trend in the models recently.

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A Timelapse of Storm Evert passing just to the south of my home. Watch the clouds do a 180 at about 30 seconds!

 

https://i.imgur.com/6BvBqCJ.mp4

 

 

Great!  Loved the way the winds reversed at the end.

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Horror show from GFS and ECM this morning. Hopefully just a blip in a broader pattern of improvement that's been showing for around mid-month on most runs recently.

 

 

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It will be Autumn soon, nights are already drawing in and I needed a sweater last night. Good news for Covid as well

 

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It will be Autumn soon, nights are already drawing in and I needed a sweater last night. Good news for Covid as well

Muggy covers it down here. Whilst the set up favours weak troughing in the south there will be deluges, albeit localised, with relatively light winds. Today is a good example with a waterfest occurring around the SE of the IOW. The Fax charts show a variety of features affecting the south this week and whilst we are unable to get a proper build of HP this will be a risk throughout.

Yeah deffo been a wobble over the past 24hrs on the prospects of a prolonged warm/dry spell hasn't there?

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In the meantime, the real heat is in south east Europe. Temperatures could get close to 47C today and tomorrow in mainland Greece!

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