WX Summaries still offering 'jam tomorrow' - warmer and drier weather working up from the south but that still in week 2 rather than week 1. MetO for this location still stuck around 20C for the next week with quite frequent showers. At one stage this week was due to be fine and sunny in the south but it's turned out very nediocre and that's before tomorrow's heavy rain.
As for the detailed models
Fax shows LP currently developing to the SW to be 992mb Ireland tomorrow with fronts moving across the UK and the LP itself still identifiable off NE Scotland on Sunday
Jet - very strong to SW of UK tomorrow and Friday, forecast pepped up since yesterday.It then buckles ito a loop round the UK over the weekend, breaks up Wed 11th, but isolated streaks continue in the region of the UK until Mon 16th before it stands off in the Atlantic.An interesting cut-off low shown near Finisterre on final frame Fri 20th. All in all considerably more active than shown yesterday.
GFS op - trough over UK moving from SW to N until Mon 9th followed by a period of mostly W-ly flow with HP over the S and pressure decreasing as you go N-wards; occasional small troughs passing by Wed 11th and Mon 16th. Then a bump of HP pushes in from the SW and develops into a broad ridge from UK to Norway, well established by Fri 20th
GEFS - temps agreed in all runs as starting cool (in Scotland near norm) but back to norm by Wed 11th after which the various runs diverge so much that no conclusion can be drawn (mean stays near norm, individual runs typically +/- 5C from this). Small amounts of rain continue.
ECM - takes a different view after Wed 11th, a rather deep LP appears in the Atlantic, at first bringing up some warm air from the S but settling directly over UK 1000mb with a cold pool Sat 14th
ATM I wouldn't put any money on any outcomes for more than a week ahead
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl