WX summary looks much like yesterday "some really cold air in the far NE in week 2, even to the extent of being below average for time of year, but otherwise seasonally cold for most of Europe with the current above-norm temps in week 1 being displaced in week 2. Pptn pattern continues to change  daily; week 1 dry for Europe exc the far N (incl N Scotland); week 2 wet for all the W coasts of Europe plus a band stretching across the Baltic and onwards" - the cold in the NE not so much emphasised and rain moving further inland in week 2

Jet model not consistent from day to day: currently looping N of UK until Sat 20th and then a period with little activity near the UK before Fri 26th when the jet begins to flow strongly along the Channel and as this moves off S-wards the UK gets a N-ly flow for the first week of Dec from the leading edge of a loop moving in from the W.

GFS op - zonal flow to Sat 20th with HP strong over S UK, the HP then retrogressing and allowing weak N-lies briefly before re-establishing 1035mb Ireland Tue 22nd. Then an unusual-looking development with LPs Biscay and Iceland joining forces eventually toppling and forming an extended trough Norway - SW England Sat 27th with NE-lies, strong and direct by Sun 28th. This trough  fades E-wards, and until Thu 4th we're back to HP W of Ireland, with weak N-lies while the main plunge is over the Baltic

GEFS - current mild spell ends Sun 21st with mean dropping and continuing a degree or three below norm. The majority of runs around Thu 25th are cold (10C below norm) but the mean is pushed up by a v. mild op run (& a couple of others). The same happens around 1st Dec but here it's the control run that's mild. Dry to 21st then plenty of rain, more than yesterday. A few snow row figures appearing even in the S - Inverness often up in the 20s

ECM - like GFS to Wed 23rd when the HP remains W of Ireland and giving a simple and fairly strong northerly, weakening and evolving into a shallow but cold trough down the N Sea Sat 27th.

Certainly significantly colder IMO, though details very much subject to change at short notice, and probably not cold enough to satisfy the rampers.

 

That’s a nice summary Neil. 

Yes, seconded.

Essentially just more variations on a theme overnight but with some evidence that the Greenland block won’t develop as much or be as durable. 

The GFS looks a little far fetched this morning. Not sure how to say this, but it seem to be a very random event like trying to forecast where hurricanes form and head off to - I bet tomorrows forecast will be different, but be interesting if it happens.

GFS, GEM and ECM all looking flaky if it's winter you're looking for this morning. Then some wonder why I get annoyed when posts state as fact things such as "the CET will take a bashing next week". I know the pantomime season has arrived but most posters have been here years and should know that those "gold standard" winter synoptics are always unlikely to materialise in the UK. 

Here comes the upgrade on the GFS 6z, doesn't surprise me too much given the 0z was at the mild end of the ensembles pack.

Indeed, 06z trending ‘cooler’ than it’s previous runs. Albeit with the op below the mean, especially after 22nd. Either way it will certainly feel quite different this time next week. 

Yes it will flip around a bit still on the opp runs, but the main thing is the overall pattern remaining consistent. And finally at least it won't be mild!

GFS, GEM and ECM all looking flaky if it's winter you're looking for this morning. Then some wonder why I get annoyed when posts state as fact things such as "the CET will take a bashing next week". I know the pantomime season has arrived but most posters have been here years and should know that those "gold standard" winter synoptics are always unlikely to materialise in the UK. 

Indeed.

Its where we are in the world which, makes it difficult for proper cold to hit the UK.

Occasionally though we do hit the jackpot but rare.

 

Yes it will flip around a bit still on the opp runs, but the main thing is the overall pattern remaining consistent. And finally at least it won't be mild!

Ah, the first ‘ALIWBM’ of the season.

That must mean the first ‘WIO’ post can’t be far away…

Ah, the first ‘ALIWBM’ of the season.

That must mean the first ‘WIO’ post can’t be far away…

Aye - not long now(despite it being autumn) 

 

Aye - not long now(despite it being autumn) 

LOL. Since when did simple facts get in the way?  

You remind me that, no doubt, we’ll also get someone suggesting that ‘winter doesn’t actually start until 21st December’ 

 

Ah, the first ‘ALIWBM’ of the season.

 

That must mean the first ‘WIO’ post can’t be far away…

I said at least it won't be mild. Obviously there's nothing mild in the outlook beyond this weekend for the first time in a long while

Well I'd call these significant snow rows for London in November. 

Some warm date records could go in the next couple of days and then some late November snow perhaps?

Definitely some early season interest in the models, those ens aren't too shabby 

Following a move down to Dartmoor, a North Westerly holds a lot more interest than it did when I lived in Oxfordshire 

Fingers crossed for a proper winter to come.

 

Yes it will flip around a bit still on the opp runs, but the main thing is the overall pattern remaining consistent. And finally at least it won't be mild!

By the long term average it will perhaps only be just below average, but it will certainly feel cold after a mild autumn: so cold I might have to put the heating on! Also, I noticed that the sleet symbols have appeared on the BBC website for here

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/sa3

Disclaimer: this in no way guarantees sleet or snow, but it does suggest a possibility of seeing some flakes falling out of the sky next week.

Some good stuff here.

 

I said at least it won't be mild. Obviously there's nothing mild in the outlook beyond this weekend for the first time in a long while

I know, I was adapting the expression, just for fun as Marcus would say.

As for the outlook, agreed - but I think expectations need to be managed downwards a little because it’s still the last third of November and it does need some exceptional synoptics to get really cold air down through the country this early.

Some good stuff here.

This from the number 30 is close to a perfect evolution - which of course means it won’t happen.

 

This from the number 30 is close to a perfect evolution - which of course means it won’t happen.

And Greece looking toasty!